A Sea Of Red

…”your old men will dream dreams, your young men will see visions.” Joel 2:28
Whether you’re old or young, this thread is for you. What P5 conference could we end up in and how do we stack up with the competition at this point in time. My pick is the ACC which currently have the following football schools.
BC
Clemson
Duke
FSU
GT
Louisville
Miami
NC State
UNC
Pitt
Syracuse
UVA
VT
Wake

The highest I can see us finishing is 7th.

If/when some combination of Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC, UVA, VT, NC State, and GT leave, we could finish top 3. With the exception of Clemson and FSU, if we played each of those teams 10 times, we'd win at least 1 game against them, and would probably have a winning record against multiple teams.

BC
Duke
GT
Louisville
Miami
NC State
Pitt
Syracuse
VT
Wake
Liberty
Memphis
ECU
App State
UConn
Tulane

That looks nice. We could beat all those in football now.

You ruin the dream part of the premise by dropping in the world 'could'.

Selfishly I'd love the Big XII.

You’re right Sly Fox about the word “could”. That puts a limit on dreaming which is contradictory to my intent. Maybe it’s appropriate that I say on this date; “I have a dream”…

Sly Fox wrote: ↑June 19th, 2024, 3:04 pm You ruin the dream part of the premise by dropping in the world 'could'.

Selfishly I'd love the Big XII.

Still the best option if the opportunity arises. Could be travel partner to the Mountaineers, unless Louisville gets in before ACC collapses.

We wouldn't beat half of those teams on the list right now. We will have continuous improvement as long as Coach Chadwell stays. I believe our future is very bright, but it is going to take a little longer to get to the next level, than what we all want. Make no mistake, we will get there.

flameshaw wrote:We wouldn't beat half of those teams on the list right now. We will have continuous improvement as long as Coach Chadwell stays. I believe our future is very bright, but it is going to take a little longer to get to the next level, than what we all want. Make no mistake, we will get there.

I understand the cautionary approach, but I feel like you're discounting our ability to compete. I'm not saying we'd win the conference by any stretch, but there are only two teams on that list that I'd say we more than likely lose to this upcoming year (VT and Miami)... Everyone else on that list is either beatable or a toss-up. Chadwell continues to show consistency in winning. While players and recruiting are a part of that formula, there are two others: 1) The coaching staff's culture and 2) our offensive scheme. We may not beat half of those teams with our talent alone, but imho the other two are more oft than not checkmarks for us.

flameshaw wrote: ↑June 20th, 2024, 10:45 am We wouldn't beat half of those teams on the list right now. We will have continuous improvement as long as Coach Chadwell stays. I believe our future is very bright, but it is going to take a little longer to get to the next level, than what we all want. Make no mistake, we will get there.

Why I used the word could, and not would or can

We are not near the top of any P4's expansion list right now. I think we can compete with and even beat many or most of the P4 outside of the top 10 blue blood programs. But if you've been paying attention, that has very little bearing on realignment. If winning was all it took, Boise would be in a P4 and it wouldn't have taken BYU so long to get the invite. I still hold to my belief that our best case scenario is an extremely watered down ACC leftover conference. But let's see if August brings anymore movement like many on the TwittersX are saying.

flameshaw wrote: ↑June 20th, 2024, 10:45 am We wouldn't beat half of those teams on the list right now. We will have continuous improvement as long as Coach Chadwell stays. I believe our future is very bright, but it is going to take a little longer to get to the next level, than what we all want. Make no mistake, we will get there.

Could get there overnight with the right NIL. Texas swiped 2 committed O Linemen from OU with their simple “ every O Line player gets $150k “ approach. Mizzou swiped OU starting left tackle with NIL $. In short - we have the resources to build however good a program we want, regardless of what conference we are in. This wasn’t true even a year ago prior to Direct University NIL. If you are putting product on the field that dominates even the worst G5 Conference - and have the talent to win and contend once you are in CFP - who cares what Conference ? However, that takes enormous financial dedication ( without the Conference TV $ ) NIL player buy can start today, the enrollment increase, National following, attendance and all the other “P4/3/2 requirements” - that comes over time. One can argue the investment isn’t worth it, etc - but you can’t argue highest bidder couldn’t put together a NC talent level team in 1 year. Does that make it an auto winner ? No - you need more ( see Jimbo Fisher ). But I don’t think enough people realize the huge door that just opened up.

Question - how many G5’s decide to pay $22 million plus across Athletics as a player share? Seems like to me - very few could even consider - which begs to question - a separate G5 “ish” conference for the handful who decide to. Seems like a Sunbelt, Mac, CUSA would gladly let the few who decide to leave without penalty just to not have such a disparity. How many AAC and MW schools can ( right now - things may change quick for MW PAC 2 merger and some sort of streaming deal - but will it be enough for each team to kick in 20 + million a year for athlete disbursements ).

Cash Rich enough

Rice
Tulane
Liberty

With Donor / P3 aspirations
Memphis
USF
SDSU
Boise
UNLV

Fresno ?
ECU ?
UCONN?

List seems short off top of my head - this is a serious discussion among G5 AD and Prez in the “here and now” until something else breaks.

tyndal23 wrote: ↑June 21st, 2024, 12:55 am Question - how many G5’s decide to pay $22 million plus across Athletics as a player share? Seems like to me - very few could even consider - which begs to question - a separate G5 “ish” conference for the handful who decide to. Seems like a Sunbelt, Mac, CUSA would gladly let the few who decide to leave without penalty just to not have such a disparity. How many AAC and MW schools can ( right now - things may change quick for MW PAC 2 merger and some sort of streaming deal - but will it be enough for each team to kick in 20 + million a year for athlete disbursements ).

Cash Rich enough

Rice
Tulane
Liberty

With Donor / P3 aspirations
Memphis
USF
SDSU
Boise
UNLV

Fresno ?
ECU ?
UCONN?

List seems short off top of my head - this is a serious discussion among G5 AD and Prez in the “here and now” until something else breaks.

And to add to my “quote thread” - TIMING. IF a small # of G5 schools decide to participate in the $20m plus annual athlete payout - and IF the ACC loses 2-8 schools year or so later and TV drops from 30m plus a year per team down to 5-10m per team - seems like the G5 teams who committed to the athlete rev share would be the first and obvious choices.

So in short - here is Ian’s summer work.

Secure approval from Board for athlete rev share.
Secure a National top 5 NIL budget that is matched dollar for dollar by Hobby Lobby CEO
Find a 2025 P4 winnable road game - hint, hint - Northwestern
Lock in the Tyndal23 South End Zone renderings,budget and completion for 25 opener and approve Purple Haize opening ceremony music.

Let the record show that Rice prefers to invest their resources academically and not athletiially. So they do not have the largesse for sports that some may presume based on their endowment. And UConn most certainly falls into that second group but Fresno State & ECU are just G5ers likely for the foreseeable future. Based on current conditions, the Huskies would be the most obvious add to the P4 tier alongside of SDSU & USF.

AAC

I do think AAC is the most natural next step. We should be positioning and considering what dollar value being in the AAC has over C-USA (scheduling, TV money, travel, etc) so we can factor that into our offer next time AAC is looking to add a team or two.

We did that to C-USA and they turned us down only to add us out of need. The same could happen to the AAC. Why not do it now and take the cash offer?

Kricket wrote: ↑August 9th, 2024, 7:58 am I do think AAC is the most natural next step. We should be positioning and considering what dollar value being in the AAC has over C-USA (scheduling, TV money, travel, etc) so we can factor that into our offer next time AAC is looking to add a team or two.

We did that to C-USA and they turned us down only to add us out of need. The same could happen to the AAC. Why not do it now and take the cash offer?

If the AAC offers to add us it would be an upgrade over CUSA but I don't think it's a big enough upgrade to justify trying to bribe our way in. It's just not a good precedent to set unless it's a huge upgrade like SMU got moving to the ACC.

I think it’s a pretty big jump. I’m also not holding my breathe for any realistic shot at the ACC even with a major exodus looming.

I think we'd be on the shortlist for the AAC, if they survive a potential ACC & PAC2 raid. The B12 taking the PAC2 is the best thing that could happen to the AAC. I also think that Realignment is too fluid & uncertain right now to try and even buy our way into the ACC right now. I certainly wouldn't try to do so with the AAC.

Do you guys honestly see a scenario we make it into the ACC or better?

Kricket wrote: ↑August 11th, 2024, 9:53 pm Do you guys honestly see a scenario we make it into the ACC or better?

Anytime this decade? No but we are quickly establishing ourselves as a top G5 and you never know what direction realignment will go.