[Dalegarz1]

I’ve been giving this a lot of thought the last couple of games. Because of the overall disparity in our performance on both sides of the ball, my gut wants us to have the ball first so we could be the “chasee “ and not the chaser. Of course, I realize the objective of deferring is to get back to back possessions. I wonder if that’s the best approach for us so I did some research which yields some interesting results. A sample of 778 games was analyzed. Back to back possessions for a team that defers happens 12% of the time. Of course if you elect to receive that never happens so chalk one up for deferring. However, the team that scores first went on to win 66% of the time. There are additional statistical nuances that you can find but these two raise an intriguing point to debate given the offense that we have. WHAT SAY YOU?

[ballcoach15]

Always defer, unless severe weather is a factor. Play defense first, and hope to get a stop. Most Always good to get ball to start 2nd half.

[JK37]

How often do we score on our first drive?

[Kricket]

This article states that deferring gives a 1 point advantage based on their data.

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/a ... defer/amp/

I've also read research that indicates basketball teams that are down by 1 at half are more likely to win the game. I don't know if this is true, but they attributed it psychology of losing feeling worse than winning feels good. Perhaps that also is a factor beyond the information in the article above.

[Dalegarz1]

I read that article also. Statistics, as we all know, can be deceiving. ”Hoping to get a stop” doesn’t have enough teeth for me. The better point was made by JK37 when he asks how often do we score on our 1st possession. I don’t have that info but I would sure like to know especially in light of the fact the team that scores 1st wins 2/3 of the time. IMHO, it is not a decision (to defer) that is written in stone. A good coach tailors those decisions to the strengths of his team. Ask yourself-what is our strength?

[Cider Jim]

Ask yourself-what is our strength?

Since our strength is clearly our offense, shouldn't we want the ball first to score first?

[ballcoach15]

It's better to get ball to start 2nd half.

[Ill flame]

Based on the data in the article whoever receives the ball first in a half gets about half of a drive worth of extra plays. I would much rather our defense be on the field for those extra plays in the first half when they are more fresh and our offense be on the field in the second half once the opposing defense is more worn down.

[JK37]

The better point was made by JK37

As always. Goes without saying.

But I still appreciate you stating the obvious.

[LUOrange]

Always defer. It's better to have the ball to start the 2nd. Also, if you can do what we did to La Tech- score at the end of the 1st, then immediately to start the 2nd, it gives you a huge advantage. You, also don't want some team doing that to you.

[Kricket]

This article also looks at who wins NFL games. Deferring seems to have a slight (hard to prove) advantage. That being said, the fact that 95 percent of the time coaches defer in the NFL tells us that people who study this kind of thing aren’t taking chances.

the 9 seasons prior to the rule change, teams winning the coin toss won 49.0% of their games. After the rule change, they won 51.5%, and the win percentage among teams that chose to defer was 52.0%, compared to 50.8% for teams choosing to receive. While it's tempting to attribute these differences to coin toss strategy⁠—no coach would turn down the option to increase win percentage by 1 or 2 percentage points—it's still not compelling evidence of a real advantage. Estimating linear models predicting game results based on what happens during the coin toss yields standard errors that are much larger than the raw differences in score differentials and win percentages. So while it is possible that the coin toss does matter, proving that it matters is difficult.
https://www.waldrn.com/how-the-nfls-200 ... -strategy/

[Dalegarz1]

Once again, the question goes beyond what the statistics show. If our defense was significantly stronger there would be no argument. Because of disparity between our offense and defense, does that make us an outlier?

[rtb72]

Keep our D off the field as much as possible. With that said, our D seems lethargic at the start of games and generally pick it up a bit in second half (sometimes). I'd go with taking kickoff to start the game.

[Kricket]

I mean we’re 9-0 and questioning deferring vs taking the ball in the first half without any data to support the decision one way or another. I’d say Chadwell is doing a heck of a job considering.

[Dalegarz1]

I think HCJC is an excellent coach! Judging by his
pressers, he is also a perfectionist. Regardless of the record I’m sure he is looking at all facets of the game planning.