Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

#651937
Ill flame wrote: February 22nd, 2023, 11:52 am The new goal is conference championships and playoff berths which means there is less incentive to schedule tougher games. No undefeated team has ever been passed up for a NY6 slot since the access bowl was created and the AAC is significantly weaker than ever.

If we were still independent and our goal is a bowl berth against a mediocre G5 then it would make more sense to schedule as many difficult games as possible without risking losing more than 6 games. There's really not much harm in losing a game or two in that scenario but the upside of beating an Arkansas was worth the risk.

I hate to say it but until we are in a tougher conference or the CFP expands again to allow more autobids and one loss doesn't sink our CFP goals then we should schedule as weak as possible while still keeping fans interested. Our 2029 schedule (@ Virginia Tech, @ East Carolina, Coastal Carolina, FCS school) should be the way forward for the foreseeable future. It makes too much sense to have the easy home win against FCS schools.
The first priority is Bowl Eligibility. You don’t get there nothing else matters or is likely to happen. You can lose your conference championship but still go to a Bowl.
If LU doesn’t go to a Bowl it’s a bad season.
LUOrange, rtb72 liked this
#651938
Purple Haize wrote: February 22nd, 2023, 12:40 pm
Ill flame wrote: February 22nd, 2023, 11:52 am The new goal is conference championships and playoff berths which means there is less incentive to schedule tougher games. No undefeated team has ever been passed up for a NY6 slot since the access bowl was created and the AAC is significantly weaker than ever.

If we were still independent and our goal is a bowl berth against a mediocre G5 then it would make more sense to schedule as many difficult games as possible without risking losing more than 6 games. There's really not much harm in losing a game or two in that scenario but the upside of beating an Arkansas was worth the risk.

I hate to say it but until we are in a tougher conference or the CFP expands again to allow more autobids and one loss doesn't sink our CFP goals then we should schedule as weak as possible while still keeping fans interested. Our 2029 schedule (@ Virginia Tech, @ East Carolina, Coastal Carolina, FCS school) should be the way forward for the foreseeable future. It makes too much sense to have the easy home win against FCS schools.
The first priority is Bowl Eligibility. You don’t get there nothing else matters or is likely to happen. You can lose your conference championship but still go to a Bowl.
If LU doesn’t go to a Bowl it’s a bad season.
You are right - I don’t get that type of mentality and hopefully never do. We are in the CUSA not the SEC.
#651939
Purple Haize wrote: February 22nd, 2023, 12:40 pm
Ill flame wrote: February 22nd, 2023, 11:52 am The new goal is conference championships and playoff berths which means there is less incentive to schedule tougher games. No undefeated team has ever been passed up for a NY6 slot since the access bowl was created and the AAC is significantly weaker than ever.

If we were still independent and our goal is a bowl berth against a mediocre G5 then it would make more sense to schedule as many difficult games as possible without risking losing more than 6 games. There's really not much harm in losing a game or two in that scenario but the upside of beating an Arkansas was worth the risk.

I hate to say it but until we are in a tougher conference or the CFP expands again to allow more autobids and one loss doesn't sink our CFP goals then we should schedule as weak as possible while still keeping fans interested. Our 2029 schedule (@ Virginia Tech, @ East Carolina, Coastal Carolina, FCS school) should be the way forward for the foreseeable future. It makes too much sense to have the easy home win against FCS schools.
The first priority is Bowl Eligibility. You don’t get there nothing else matters or is likely to happen. You can lose your conference championship but still go to a Bowl.
If LU doesn’t go to a Bowl it’s a bad season.



Amen !
#651940
ballcoach15 wrote: February 22nd, 2023, 1:26 pm
Purple Haize wrote: February 22nd, 2023, 12:40 pm
Ill flame wrote: February 22nd, 2023, 11:52 am The new goal is conference championships and playoff berths which means there is less incentive to schedule tougher games. No undefeated team has ever been passed up for a NY6 slot since the access bowl was created and the AAC is significantly weaker than ever.

If we were still independent and our goal is a bowl berth against a mediocre G5 then it would make more sense to schedule as many difficult games as possible without risking losing more than 6 games. There's really not much harm in losing a game or two in that scenario but the upside of beating an Arkansas was worth the risk.

I hate to say it but until we are in a tougher conference or the CFP expands again to allow more autobids and one loss doesn't sink our CFP goals then we should schedule as weak as possible while still keeping fans interested. Our 2029 schedule (@ Virginia Tech, @ East Carolina, Coastal Carolina, FCS school) should be the way forward for the foreseeable future. It makes too much sense to have the easy home win against FCS schools.
The first priority is Bowl Eligibility. You don’t get there nothing else matters or is likely to happen. You can lose your conference championship but still go to a Bowl.
If LU doesn’t go to a Bowl it’s a bad season.



Amen !
Ballcoach - remind me - weren’t you the one who boycotted last bowl due to “ lack of intrigue” ? You and PH need to coach up our new HC - he is stating different goals than you - warn him it could be dangerous for expectations the blue hairs of the fan base who think going to bowl games every year is more important than scheduling for and chasing CFP appearances and remind him $4 million a year only buys Cure Bowl expectations and just “get 6 wins baby” is our mantra. Anything over that is gravy. Vision Realized.
#651941
Purple Haize wrote: February 22nd, 2023, 12:40 pm
Ill flame wrote: February 22nd, 2023, 11:52 am The new goal is conference championships and playoff berths which means there is less incentive to schedule tougher games. No undefeated team has ever been passed up for a NY6 slot since the access bowl was created and the AAC is significantly weaker than ever.

If we were still independent and our goal is a bowl berth against a mediocre G5 then it would make more sense to schedule as many difficult games as possible without risking losing more than 6 games. There's really not much harm in losing a game or two in that scenario but the upside of beating an Arkansas was worth the risk.

I hate to say it but until we are in a tougher conference or the CFP expands again to allow more autobids and one loss doesn't sink our CFP goals then we should schedule as weak as possible while still keeping fans interested. Our 2029 schedule (@ Virginia Tech, @ East Carolina, Coastal Carolina, FCS school) should be the way forward for the foreseeable future. It makes too much sense to have the easy home win against FCS schools.
The first priority is Bowl Eligibility. You don’t get there nothing else matters or is likely to happen. You can lose your conference championship but still go to a Bowl.
If LU doesn’t go to a Bowl it’s a bad season.
We are in the second weakest conference in the country. If we aren't making bowls regularly in CUSA it doesn't really matter who we schedule, we've got bigger issues. Bowl eligibility is still a goal but it's no longer the only goal like it was in the Hugh Freeze era. The other two goals came straight from our coaches mouth so clearly it's not just something a random message board fan came up with.
#651942
Ill flame wrote: February 22nd, 2023, 2:31 pm
We are in the second weakest conference in the country.
Which conference is the weakest? :dontgetit
#651948
Purple Haize wrote: February 22nd, 2023, 3:36 pm @Ill flame I never said it was the ‘only’ Goal. But it IS priority #1. From that everything else flows
Us making a bowl game in CUSA is the #1 priority in the same way making a bowl game is the #1 priority for Boise state in MWC. In both cases the coach understands that's the bare minimum goal he needs to reach to keep his job but in both cases they aren't planning their nonconference schedule around reaching that goal. In our case scheduling to make the CFP and scheduling to guarantee a bowl game is one and the same. Undefeated seasons are the only way as long as we are in this conference. Boise State has a little more wiggle room in MWC so they can schedule tougher.
#651957
tyndal23 wrote: February 22nd, 2023, 4:24 pm 11 - 2 AAC champ will get in over 13-0 LU using 23 schedule as an example. 12-2 Sunbelt also depending on their non con. IF undefeated LU won every game by 21 points - maybe. But nothing CFP has done to date assured that
We have had the CFP system for 9 years now which is a decent sample size. If you can find me an example of a G5 with a better record getting passed up by a team with a worse record I would be interested. To my knowledge the closest that has come to happening was in 2020 when 11-0 CCU was passed up by 9-0 Cincy with a much tougher SOS. Even in their case they got a huge boost from that season despite missing a NY6. Arguably even bigger than cincy that year. They were billed by the media as "America's team," hosted college GameDay and had one of the most watched bowl games (we know how that ended) of the season and all because they beat up cupcakes. The odds of us winning our games and getting passed over are very low.... now we just need to win our games.
#651981
Ill flame wrote: February 22nd, 2023, 6:45 pm
tyndal23 wrote: February 22nd, 2023, 4:24 pm 11 - 2 AAC champ will get in over 13-0 LU using 23 schedule as an example. 12-2 Sunbelt also depending on their non con. IF undefeated LU won every game by 21 points - maybe. But nothing CFP has done to date assured that
We have had the CFP system for 9 years now which is a decent sample size. If you can find me an example of a G5 with a better record getting passed up by a team with a worse record I would be interested. To my knowledge the closest that has come to happening was in 2020 when 11-0 CCU was passed up by 9-0 Cincy with a much tougher SOS. Even in their case they got a huge boost from that season despite missing a NY6. Arguably even bigger than cincy that year. They were billed by the media as "America's team," hosted college GameDay and had one of the most watched bowl games (we know how that ended) of the season and all because they beat up cupcakes. The odds of us winning our games and getting passed over are very low.... now we just need to win our games.
2016 undefeated Western MI ( 2 early P5 wins ) and Committee kept trying to put Houston and Boise in front of them even with losses. ( houston and Boise folded down the stretch and Committee had no choice) . Now plug in an even worse conference schedule and LU - CUSA and no P5’s. A 3 loss old AAC champ would maybe get the nod over LU in that scenario. New AAC - 1 maybe 2 loss. If you guys think general public and committee rates MAC behind new CUSA - in terms of “quality” - you are wrong. Can that change quickly? - yes. 2023 preseason, LU schedule is ranked 118th based on prior year W-L. 2024 will probably be even lower. It is a problem.
LUOrange liked this
#651982
Without having a Power Five win it is going to be hard to get a NY 6 spot simply by beating up on CUSA teams. Goal is to win CUSA and secondarily to get a NY6 spot. Winning bowl games is no longer our top goal. If we can't win 6 games with a CUSA schedule, we have big problems.
LUOrange liked this
#651984
Image

I found the SP+ preseason conference rankings for the last two seasons and also included the post regular season rankings from last year for reference. The AAC is going from basically living up to its P6 moniker to still being the top G5 but having their average team being 2 TD underdogs against the worst P5 conference. That's an absolutely massive difference that the committee 100% will factor in. The committee will have better data than this. Regardless we will have very little room for error to reach a NY6/CFP and its not happening this year. Its nice to have that as our unrealistic but still attainable goal but conference championships should be the main focus (bowls should be the expectation). If we can average 10+ wins a year including post season games and win the conference championship more often than not I'll be happy for the foreseeable future. I think a few years of that will quickly shift how people perceive Liberty. I don't care how the conference is perceived by the general public.
jmclaughlin, AATL liked this
#651989
I'm not arguing that CUSA will ever become the AAC, but I do think the conference has potential for competitive growth and can move out of the football cellar with some luck - especially if the tides of realignment mean a couple teams are snatched from the MWC or SBC. Jacksonville State and Sam Houston have both been very successful at their current level, and all three programs are making significant investments into their programs as a part of this move (Jacksonville State bringing in Rich Rod, Kennesaw's facility upgrades, etc.). The track record of top level FCS programs jumping to FBS over the last decade or so is pretty strong. Add in the sudden life Jerry Kill has given NMSU (pending whatever sanctions their athletic program is inevitably about to receive) and there are several teams who could become much more competitive over the next few years.
#651990
Jax State is investing ... Sam, not so much. Moving up was unexpected blessing for them for which they were not prepared. But they do have a great coaching staff.

Our predicament is what it is. And frankly under current circumstances, is actually better than our indy position we all were enjoying. Should we get some P5 games on the upcoming schedules? Of course. But we had to make sacrifices to get in a league that would get us CFP access.

But based on the college football landscape of the past two weeks, none of these issues may wind up being an issue for us if dominoes fall the right direction.
LUOrange, AATL, Baybird liked this
#651992
AATL wrote: February 24th, 2023, 9:48 am I'm not arguing that CUSA will ever become the AAC, but I do think the conference has potential for competitive growth and can move out of the football cellar with some luck - especially if the tides of realignment mean a couple teams are snatched from the MWC or SBC. Jacksonville State and Sam Houston have both been very successful at their current level, and all three programs are making significant investments into their programs as a part of this move (Jacksonville State bringing in Rich Rod, Kennesaw's facility upgrades, etc.). The track record of top level FCS programs jumping to FBS over the last decade or so is pretty strong. Add in the sudden life Jerry Kill has given NMSU (pending whatever sanctions their athletic program is inevitably about to receive) and there are several teams who could become much more competitive over the next few years.
That’s a step backward, I don’t care who you are!
flamehunter liked this
#651999
JK37 wrote: February 24th, 2023, 10:23 am
AATL wrote: February 24th, 2023, 9:48 am I'm not arguing that CUSA will ever become the AAC, but I do think the conference has potential for competitive growth and can move out of the football cellar with some luck - especially if the tides of realignment mean a couple teams are snatched from the MWC or SBC. Jacksonville State and Sam Houston have both been very successful at their current level, and all three programs are making significant investments into their programs as a part of this move (Jacksonville State bringing in Rich Rod, Kennesaw's facility upgrades, etc.). The track record of top level FCS programs jumping to FBS over the last decade or so is pretty strong. Add in the sudden life Jerry Kill has given NMSU (pending whatever sanctions their athletic program is inevitably about to receive) and there are several teams who could become much more competitive over the next few years.
That’s a step backward, I don’t care who you are!
Who?
JK37 liked this
#652000
Ill flame wrote: February 24th, 2023, 12:26 pm Rich Rod isn't great but he's a good coach. He's also put together a solid staff around him. Their OC has been a solid (again not great) P5 OC for awhile and their DC is a rising star. He will thrive at this level.
The cheerleaders are getting a lot of attention too
JK37 liked this
#652004
Sly Fox wrote: February 24th, 2023, 10:00 am Jax State is investing ... Sam, not so much. Moving up was unexpected blessing for them for which they were not prepared. But they do have a great coaching staff.

Our predicament is what it is. And frankly under current circumstances, is actually better than our indy position we all were enjoying. Should we get some P5 games on the upcoming schedules? Of course. But we had to make sacrifices to get in a league that would get us CFP access.

But based on the college football landscape of the past two weeks, none of these issues may wind up being an issue for us if dominoes fall the right direction.
Dominoes ? We have Sunbelt and AAC - what scenario suddenly makes us attractive to either ? ( not arguing - just curious ). sunbelt “ will never invite LU crowd” and AAC focused on “ tv markets “. Kennesaw St has a better chance at AAC than LU in my mind based on AAC recent philosophy. Jax St, La Tech, MTSU, WKU - all fit Sunbelt “ mentality and budget” better than LU. Unfortunately I see more LU Twitter moaning in the near future if PAC survives in name only and grabs a few AAC members.
Ill flame liked this
#652011
The sooner we can get new leadership that at least has a postgrad degree the better. Prevo by himself is our primary stumbling block to getting anywhere else with other university presidents sizing us up.

But ground is starting to rumble and things could get silly for a few days in which preconceived notions could be turned upside down.
LUOrange, AATL liked this
#652013
Sly Fox wrote: February 24th, 2023, 3:57 pm The sooner we can get new leadership that at least has a postgrad degree the better. Prevo by himself is our primary stumbling block to getting anywhere else with other university presidents sizing us up.

But ground is starting to rumble and things could get silly for a few days in which preconceived notions could be turned upside down.
What do you know that we don't know Sly? :lol:
LUOrange liked this
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