Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

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By Ill flame
Posts
#633096
SP+ also has us tied at 19 with Ole Miss and ahead of coastal. Turns out these rankings prefer it when you convincingly beat bad teams instead of sneaking by FIU and western Kentucky.
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By Ill flame
Posts
#644727
Yearly reminder how much we've improved despite our record being largely stagnant. These are our FPI rankings and record that year.

2018: 113 (6-6)
2019: 97 (8-5)
2020: 76 (10-1)
2021: 56 (8-5)

2022: 78* (1-0)

*After week 1. I expect this number to improve, especially once we get to the weak part of our schedule. FPI is projecting us to go 8-4 after the USM win. If we somehow pull off the win next week a 9 win season is achievable assuming we win the games we should and win one of the four P5 games.
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By Ill flame
Posts
#644870
After week 2 we moved up 9 spots to number 69 in FPI. It's projecting us to win 8.7 games with a 99.8% chance of going bowling. Wake Forest is currently ranked 38 in FPI.
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By Ill flame
Posts
#646150
I don't think we will make it into the top 25 this week but I think we will be one of the top teams receiving votes. 3 top 25 teams will likely drop out with some of the top vote getters outside the top 25 also losing. The bye week might be enough to get us over the hump heading into the Arkansas game.

Our strength of record ranking which is the odds that an average top 25 would have our record or better is 22. SOR correlates pretty strongly with ap rankings. For context we finished 2020 with a SOR ranking of 21. Our defensive efficiency is ranked 37th so far which is significantly better than last year's ranking of 53.
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By Sly Fox
Registration Days Posts
#646158
AP Top 25 wrote:Others receiving votes:
Texas 38, Liberty 35, Oregon State 25, Mississippi State 10, Maryland 8, Troy 3, UTSA 1, Arkansas 1, Washington 1, Florida State 1
The same position in the Coaches Poll ...
USA Today Top 25 wrote:Others receiving votes:
Texas 48; Liberty 42; Maryland 24; Washington 22; Oregon State 21; Baylor 6; Texas-San Antonio 4; Mississippi State 4; Troy 3; Arkansas 3; Coastal Carolina 2; Central Florida 1; Boise State 1.
By LUDad
Posts
#646165
I know, long way to go...but Cinninnatti & Tulane play each other last game of season with each playing other tough games before then. Bowl situation could get quite interesting if we keep winning.
By tyndal23
Posts
#646169
LUDad wrote: October 23rd, 2022, 4:29 pm I know, long way to go...but Cinninnatti & Tulane play each other last game of season with each playing other tough games before then. Bowl situation could get quite interesting if we keep winning.
How so? We aren’t Group of 5 and do not get the auto NY6 Bowl.
Ill flame liked this
By LUDad
Posts
#646175
tyndal23 wrote: October 23rd, 2022, 7:16 pm
LUDad wrote: October 23rd, 2022, 4:29 pm I know, long way to go...but Cinninnatti & Tulane play each other last game of season with each playing other tough games before then. Bowl situation could get quite interesting if we keep winning.
How so? We aren’t Group of 5 and do not get the auto NY6 Bowl.
The conversation and squirming that would take place if a group of 5 equivalent is higher ranked and more deserving of the ny6 slot than any of the Group of 5 teams, but is left out.
Last edited by LUDad on October 23rd, 2022, 10:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
By tyndal23
Posts
#646176
LUDad wrote: October 23rd, 2022, 9:55 pm
tyndal23 wrote: October 23rd, 2022, 7:16 pm
LUDad wrote: October 23rd, 2022, 4:29 pm I know, long way to go...but Cinninnatti & Tulane play each other last game of season with each playing other tough games before then. Bowl situation could get quite interesting if we keep winning.
How so? We aren’t Group of 5 and do not get the auto NY6 Bowl.
The conversation and squirming that would take place if a group of 5 equivalent is higher ranked and more deserving of the ny6 slot than any of the Group of 5 teams, but is left out.
The press might say a word or 2, our LU Twitter will sure squeal, but all NY6 bowl committees highly prefer that no G5 qualifies so they can take a 7-5 crap SEC team who will bring 50k fans to their venue - won’t even be an internal discussion about “next deserving”. Maybe I am wrong, but that’s my view on Bowls which are all but irrelevant lately with the “opt outs”.
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By Ill flame
Posts
#646183
Bowl tie ins make it very difficult for us to get a NY6 bowl without being in a conference. Here is the break down of the NY6 tie ins this year.

Peach Bowl- CFP
Fiesta Bowl- CFP
Rose Bowl- B1G v PAC 12
Cotton Bowl- At large v G5 champ
Sugar Bowl- SEC v Big 12
Orange- ACC v B1G/SEC/ND

This means there is one at large slot available for us and if we did get that slot it would be against a G5 school. Fortunately the CFP committee gets to decide who plays each NY6 bowl so they almost always prioritize the top 12 teams whenever possible.

Unfortunately for non NY6 bowls it is bowl committees that decides who gets invited and they are only trying to fill seats as Tyndal mentioned. If the choice is between a 6-6 Nebraska or 10-2 Liberty they will choose Nebraska every time unless ESPN says otherwise. I think our best case scenario is playing in the Gasparilla bowl against a mid tier SEC school like auburn or Florida.
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By Ill flame
Posts
#646185
Looking ahead to our bye week the following teams ahead of us in the rankings are favored to lose or are playing in a near toss-up. All the teams near us in "others receiving votes" also has a bye so no one should jump us unless there are big upsets.

#13 Penn St v #2 Ohio St (If Penn st keeps it close they probably won't drop out of the rankings.... they won't keep it close)

#16 Syracuse v Notre Dame (Only 3 point favorites at home)

#22 K St v #9 OK St

#20 Cincinnati v UCF (toss up)

#19 Kentucky v #3 Tennessee

#15 Ole miss v Texas A&m (ole miss only 2.5 point favorites on the road)
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By Cider Jim
Registration Days Posts
#646428
rtb72 wrote: October 29th, 2022, 10:37 pm Be prepared for "America's Team" (CCU) to be ranked this coming week.
Coastal beat the team (Marshall) that BEAT Notre Dame! :shock:
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