LUGrad2000 wrote: ↑June 27th, 2021, 11:33 pm BYU usually schedules about 5-6 P5 schools each year. I would think if we wanted to position ourselves for a playoff spot we would need to be somewhere near 4-6. The problem with that for us would be securing home games. BYU has no problem with P5 home games. The next two years will be critical for us. To have a chance at some home games we need to make waves and a name for ourselves by winning now.The 12 team playoff changes things a lot in my view of CFB and for LU. I really don’t think there is a right or wrong answer near term. For example 2021 ( theoretically ) LU could go undefeated and have beaten x amount of conference champions and get in a playoff. It all comes down to W-L of opponents and for giggles, say we beat Ole Miss and they beat Bama but were still a 3 loss team but ranked pretty high etc...and there is a 2 loss ND and BYU and the typical 2- loss plethora of P5 teams - getting a spot is very realistic. Other years, 4 P5 wins won’t be enough due to opponents W-L/SOS, ND taking a slot and several 1 loss or high ranked P5 teams ( P5 teams with 2 losses and extreme close conference champ game losses and very high SOS ). I sort of go back to my original argument that 4 P5 is not enough to recruit enough P5 players to actually win all 4 P5 games and think we need to go all in budgeting and scheduling P5 HOWEVER, now one can realistically argue that philosophy could cost us a shot at a playoff birth when a much weaker undefeated schedule would get us in. As for your point, In order for LU to get 1 for 1 home and home games with ACC like BYU does with P12 and other conferences, I don’t see a shortcut from my original plan BUT if we did do it, I will argue that ACC will have even have more incentive to add LU as a P5 equivalent. Will there be a year where easier schedule gets LU in a playoff - yes. Is it the right thinking long term if your vision is to “compete” at the highest level? Not so sure. Just happy the lines are blurring between P5/G5.
tyndal23 wrote: ↑June 28th, 2021, 11:34 pmThat's an interesting article. They turned us down a few years ago but a lot has changed since then. C-USA is trending down and may get desperate soon while we have proven that we can win at the FBS level which wasn't a certainty before. Im not necessarily saying we should but I like the idea of dominating a weak conference like app state does in the Sunbelt.
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/confere ... v-contract
Ill flame wrote: ↑June 29th, 2021, 12:26 amYes it is something to definitely consider. I see it difficult to be the highest rated G5 team with AAC, Sunbelt, and then Boise St in the mix battling for 1 spot. Maybe a better shot is Indie and playing a top tier G5 team in Sunbelt,AAC,and Confernce USA and 2 P5. A perfect example is our 2024 schedule - very realistic that we play 4 conference champions, AAC,Mac,Comfernce USA, Sunbelt. If we win all but UNC and play them tough - good shot even as a 1 loss team. Will top G5 teams now risk playing us? I think That may be harder than scheduling P5’s moving forward....
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/confere ... v-contract
Ill flame wrote: ↑June 29th, 2021, 12:25 pm Top G5 schools are usually looking for games against other top G5s to boost SOS since P5s are reluctant to schedule those schools. Hopefully by 2024 we are in the same conversation as Boise st or app state as a top non P5. We certainly were this year but it usually takes a couple years for the media to acknowledge that.Yes, but will that continue with a playoff spot on the line. AAC probably views just win conference and they are in so don’t risk much on Non con games. I think Boise St has to schedule non con tougher than AAC. Sunbelt ( based on last year ) might opt for 1 weak P5 and couple of cupcakes. Will be interesting to watch. Does AAC go from trying to be a P6 to - ok let’s not risk our spot. The rest of G5 probably needs to take a bit of risk non con.
I also think competing against the other G5 champs for one CFP spot is easier than competing against elite P5 schools for an at large berth.
olldflame wrote: ↑June 29th, 2021, 5:02 pm I just don't think we are at a point where we should be getting rid of something (one FCS game a year) which unquestionably increases our chances of becoming bowl eligible each and every year, in favor of a schedule which MIGHT slightly increase our minuscule chances of a playoff bid. Too early for that IMHO.Since schedules are done 5 years in advance, when would you suggest? Is your goal just to make a bowl game ( if any bowls can still afford to exist after playoff expansion ). Will wait and see if someone at the top clarifies if the playoff expansion changes our stated goals ( that recruits take note of ). If they state we just want to make a bowl, then by all means keep FCS game. I doubt we hear any top G5 schools say “ our goal is to make a bowl” moving forward. If we are worried about bowl eligibility and not playoff eligibility, then we may as well go back to FCS. Scheduling philosophies on how to get a shot year in and year out is certainly debatable, but I certainly hope the goal isn’t debatable, regardless of the odds. There are 6 spots up for grabs where the W/L / SOS factor in. There are a lot of years where there are 3 loss P5 teams hovering around that 12 spot and 1 more datapoint is the difference for a Second G5, or BYU, Army, Liberty etc to claim.
Ill flame wrote: ↑June 30th, 2021, 12:55 am Unless we are replacing the FCS game against a quality opponent instead of another game against umass i'm not sure how much it's gonna add to our playoff chances. No matter our strategy we should try to get away from playing the bottom of the barrel G5 schools. I get that playing the weak independents is necessary but playing ULM and fiu does nothing for us.There is zero data points awarded in SOS for an FCS win - even beating national champ JMU does nothing on that front. Clearly the Committee has shown SOS as a priority ( throw last year’s data out - everything was off kilter with the dramatic difference in opponents played by conferences/teams). Weak G5 - agreed, except it is much tougher to guess on G5 teams 5 years in advance due to coaching turnover and up and down swings in general with only a handful of exceptions. As for FIU and So Miss - we were just happy to get games in our first 4-5 years. Hopefully UCONN replaces NMSU moving forward, UMASS is currently recruiting at a good clip ( how, I have no idea ) and should improve. Ian will get it all figured out provided he has the support and President doesn’t tell him “ not to take chances and just worry about making a bowl game”.
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