Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

#628097
I think y'all are missing the point. We already have built in cupcake games against the weak independents (NMSU, UCONN, UMASS), do we also need more cupcake games against teams like ULM and FIU that we know are always terrible? I'm not saying we should play 6 P5s but having 6 terrible teams on the schedule and having a SOS ranked 107 like we did last year will never get us anywhere. We need to be somewhere in the 60-85 range imo.

I would rather have no more than 3 cupcakes (to include FCS), 2 P5s, a couple good G5 schools, and try to fill the rest of our schedule with at least mid tier G5s that are beatable. I'm thinking teams like Wyoming, Tulane, Arkansas St that have a track record of being competitive but never a top G5.
#628098
For a good team with a conference, their schedule looks like:

2 cupcake non conference
1 challenging non conference
4-5 not quite cupcake conference games
4-5 challenging conference games

No one outside the SEC plays more than 4-5 hard games each year. And that’s only because they’re required to.
olldflame liked this
#628101
I agree with most of what Lil'Flame said. However, no one's advocating bolstering our schedules tomorrow, at least I'm not. Especially considering that we have schedules and contracts in place, and we don't officially know if and when the playoffs will begin. This thread is also about scheduling philosophy with the new playoffs in place. Every program should have making the playoffs as its goal, while being elated to settle for a Bowl game. Just as in BB we want to make The Dance but won't complain if we have to settle for the NIT or one of the lesser tourneys.

But you're right, losing hurts us badly. But loading up on cupcakes hurts us as well. They only help but so much to prepare you for better teams. Selection committees and Conferences aren't impressed, and more importantly, the fanbase isn't either. Most will tire of thumping bottom feeder FBS and FCS schools cause it cheapens the product. Good recruits don't want to lose either, but they also want to be challenged by better opposition. Many of our recruits have essentially said that. The answer is obviously balance and a gradual increase in strengthening our schedule. I think all of our schedules have reflected that. Next season's schedule is the best example of where I think our schedules should be until the new playoffs begin and we gradually strengthen our schedule even more. With only 12/6 teams making the playoffs, all of them most likely being P5 and P5 Light. Merely being consistently in contention for a spot will do wonders for Liberty.
cruzan_flame13 liked this
#628110
JK37 wrote: July 1st, 2021, 8:25 am
Ill flame wrote: June 30th, 2021, 12:55 am Unless we are replacing the FCS game against a quality opponent instead of another game against umass i'm not sure how much it's gonna add to our playoff chances. No matter our strategy we should try to get away from playing the bottom of the barrel G5 schools. I get that playing the weak independents is necessary but playing ULM and fiu does nothing for us.
Seriously? It gives us a better chance to WIN!

And going 12-0 with one game counting as Zero data points does what for the P,ayoff Committee?

I think some of you guys are forgetting just how weak LU’s schedule was last year. Taking nothing away from what was accomplished, LU does not win as many games or have the best bowl game of the whole bowl season if we had played the likes of the schedule you guys are advocating for.

Correct. And what does that have to do with scheduling for a playoff spot 5 years from now?

Try going 5-7 a couple times like we will if we’re playing the schedules you’re pushing, and see what happens to recruiting. Coaches get this! There is no better recruiting tool than WINNING, and no greater negative recruiting tool others will use than LOSING. And no degree of “We played P5’s!” will eliminate the fallout from losing.

Ridiculous. TCU,Baylor,UAB,Coastal,BYU - and on and on. You are dead wrong on recruiting - Players can now leave when a coach leaves and not sit out and now they can leave for no reason. There is no 5 year build anymore - coaches are expected to win in 3. By far the biggest negative to recruiting will be coaching turnover.

You should absolutely have 1-2 games a year that stretch you beyond your current level. Work your way to beating them, then go schedule bigger. But if you bite off more than you can chew too early, you’ll set this program back a decade. Money and coaching quality are a greater likelihood of on-field success, but they don’t guarantee it. You can’t buy wins. You can’t guarantee better recruiting just because you scheduled six P5’s and called yourself P5-equivalent. WIN like it, and the rest will follow!
Buying Wins refers to scheduling cupcakes. No one in this thread said schedule 6 P5’s. We are discussing what is the formula to theoretically put us in a mix with an undefeated season every year based on 7 years of CF Committee rankings based on W-L and SOS. Western Michigan 2016 13-0, SOS of 69, with 2 P5 games and 1 FCS - had they played another G5 rather than the FCS game, may have been the difference on 12th place. This is what all AD’s will be looking at as they CURRENTLY work on schedules 5 years out from today.
“Setting us back a decade” - whatever. Now please get specific on what you think our schedule should look like - is there a current schedule we already have in place that you think 2026-30 should look like? You can even build in a 5-7 or worse record for 22 and assume we drop from the 2nd page of 247 ranking to 3rd page based on that built in losing schedule we have in place and even assume we lose “half a decade” of whatever it is happens when a team goes 5-7 that you are referring to....

Responses above under each paragraph
#628115
ballcoach15 wrote: July 1st, 2021, 3:48 pm Non-SEC schools get fat off cupcakes every year. Liberty should just beat whoever is on schedule. Everything will take care of itself.
Selection committee will always favor P5 schools and Coastal Carolina, no matter what we do.
Not sure why Coastal Carolina is living rent free in your head, but it's not a great look.

SEC schools schedule about the same amount of cupcakes (including FCS) OOC as other P5 schools. Their schedules are tougher overall because they have to play each other.
#628117
@tyndal23 ok. I think we actually agree more than we disagree.

Coaching changes have always had a dramatic effect on recruiting, but it’s not number one. If a kid decides to transfer, where do they go? Where they can WIN!

This started as a response to the thinking that wins over FIU, etc. do nothing for us. But that’s a data-point win, so wouldn’t you agree there’s a place for it?

Are you willing to trade an FCS win and a bowl for a losing season on the chance of replicating WMU in 2016? Maybe I am. But that wasn’t my point.

Your premise that “Buying wins” only refers to scheduling cupcakes is false. It also refers to your thinking that a big budget can buy you an elite winning program. As I said, it can increase the likelihood, but it cannot guarantee it.

Liberty won’t be able to recruit a full P5 roster just because it plays P5’s. If you play and LOSE to P5’s, you’re just Vanderbilt.

So, when you step up, you’d better be ready. Because if you step up and lose, the hit to your reputation will keep elite coaches and players away longer.
#628121
JK37 wrote: July 1st, 2021, 6:00 pm @tyndal23 ok. I think we actually agree more than we disagree.

Coaching changes have always had a dramatic effect on recruiting, but it’s not number one. If a kid decides to transfer, where do they go? Where they can WIN!

This started as a response to the thinking that wins over FIU, etc. do nothing for us. But that’s a data-point win, so wouldn’t you agree there’s a place for it?

Are you willing to trade an FCS win and a bowl for a losing season on the chance of replicating WMU in 2016? Maybe I am. But that wasn’t my point.

Your premise that “Buying wins” only refers to scheduling cupcakes is false. It also refers to your thinking that a big budget can buy you an elite winning program. As I said, it can increase the likelihood, but it cannot guarantee it.

Liberty won’t be able to recruit a full P5 roster just because it plays P5’s. If you play and LOSE to P5’s, you’re just Vanderbilt.

So, when you step up, you’d better be ready. Because if you step up and lose, the hit to your reputation will keep elite coaches and players away longer.
I stated all over the other thread that if “winning” is the philosophy to get to a conference, then absolutely don’t schedule any P5’s. 4 was t enough to get P5 recruits to beat 4 FBS teams in one year and would need a major commitment to get to BYU “status”. Now, everything has changed and G5 and LU have a path to a playoff game. Lines will be blurring between top G5 and low to middle P5 ( including recruiting ) Bowls will be even more meaningless than they are now. Still nice but not anyone’s stated goal. The goal is how to get that 12th spot. Is it zero P5, 1,2,3,4 ? Anyway you slice it, FCS games aren’t a luxury any FBS can afford to take now outside of the Top tier Blue Bloods. If the playoffs start in 23 then buyout your FCS game - we won’t be the only ones thinking that way. Not condoning a remake of anything we have scheduled already other than IF it starts 23 then consider dropping FCS. AS for 2025 on IT Is very much a concern right now for AD’s at every level. I predict even SEC drops FCS games moving forward ( Saban is very vocal about it ) OU media talking about it for Big 12...Commissioners weighing in and looking at getting their 2nd and 3rd best conference teams in. For casual fans, no big deal, but wheels are churning ever since the announcement for the ones who have to schedule.

Recruiting - they transfer to where they can play, now they will go where they can play and make the most $.

As for 2021 you may be surprised, but I certainly don’t expect last years success to auto translate to 22. I don’t expect a win at any P5’s with full capacity crowds and every road G5 is trouble and Louisiana Army. But I am always pessimistic every year. But if we have a ton of injuries and go 5-7 - I am not going to state we are set back a “decade”.
#628122
JK37 wrote: July 1st, 2021, 6:00 pm @tyndal23 ok. I think we actually agree more than we disagree.

Coaching changes have always had a dramatic effect on recruiting, but it’s not number one. If a kid decides to transfer, where do they go? Where they can WIN!

This started as a response to the thinking that wins over FIU, etc. do nothing for us. But that’s a data-point win, so wouldn’t you agree there’s a place for it?

Are you willing to trade an FCS win and a bowl for a losing season on the chance of replicating WMU in 2016? Maybe I am. But that wasn’t my point.

Your premise that “Buying wins” only refers to scheduling cupcakes is false. It also refers to your thinking that a big budget can buy you an elite winning program. As I said, it can increase the likelihood, but it cannot guarantee it.

Liberty won’t be able to recruit a full P5 roster just because it plays P5’s. If you play and LOSE to P5’s, you’re just Vanderbilt.

So, when you step up, you’d better be ready. Because if you step up and lose, the hit to your reputation will keep elite coaches and players away longer.
I stated all over the other thread that if “winning” is the philosophy to get to a conference, then absolutely don’t schedule any P5’s. 4 was t enough to get P5 recruits to beat 4 FBS teams in one year and would need a major commitment to get to BYU “status”. Now, everything has changed and G5 and LU have a path to a playoff game. Lines will be blurring between top G5 and low to middle P5 ( including recruiting ) Bowls will be even more meaningless than they are now. Still nice but not anyone’s stated goal. The goal is how to get that 12th spot. Is it zero P5, 1,2,3,4 ? Anyway you slice it, FCS games aren’t a luxury any FBS can afford to take now outside of the Top tier Blue Bloods. If the playoffs start in 23 then buyout your FCS game - we won’t be the only ones thinking that way. Not condoning a remake of anything we have scheduled already other than IF it starts 23 then consider dropping FCS. AS for 2025 on IT Is very much a concern right now for AD’s at every level. I predict even SEC drops FCS games moving forward ( Saban is very vocal about it ) OU media talking about it for Big 12...Commissioners weighing in and looking at getting their 2nd and 3rd best conference teams in. For casual fans, no big deal, but wheels are churning ever since the announcement for the ones who have to schedule.

Recruiting - they transfer to where they can play, now they will go where they can play and make the most $.

As for 2021 you may be surprised, but I certainly don’t expect last years success to auto translate to 22. I don’t expect a win at any P5’s with full capacity crowds and every road G5 is trouble and Louisiana Army. But I am always pessimistic every year. But if we have a ton of injuries and go 5-7 - I am not going to state we are set back a “decade”.
#628132
jinxy wrote: July 1st, 2021, 7:04 pm Man we already act like fiu is trash and we barely beat them and WKU with a great qb like malik. I like where the schedules are going. So much can change by 2025 that it doesnt make much sense worrying about further out than that.
Very true. BUT.. .it's July and we need to something to talk and argue about.
Ill flame, CCWMichael liked this
#628155
I see a lot of references to "data point wins" but we are ignoring how much the rankings are influenced by the eye test. I highly doubt the committee would rank a team 13 and say "if only they had played FIU instead of an FCS school"

The committee is smarter than the average fan. A blowout win against NDSU or James Madison would mean more to the committee than another FBS cupcake.

I really don't care one way or the other about scheduling FCS schools but some of you act like playing one body bag game later in the season when everyone else is in conference play will cost us a playoff or something.
#628169
Ill flame wrote: July 1st, 2021, 11:07 pm I see a lot of references to "data point wins" but we are ignoring how much the rankings are influenced by the eye test. I highly doubt the committee would rank a team 13 and say "if only they had played FIU instead of an FCS school"

The committee is smarter than the average fan. A blowout win against NDSU or James Madison would mean more to the committee than another FBS cupcake.

I really don't care one way or the other about scheduling FCS schools but some of you act like playing one body bag game later in the season when everyone else is in conference play will cost us a playoff or something.
Our baseball team at large bid probably came mathematically that close. VCU series scheduled last second was tHe difference if we went or not. Playoff Committee had us unranked with 1 loss last year and 2 P5 wins simply based on how awful our SOS was even though AP and Coaches had us ranked and they are fairly consistent with SOS vs AP and Coaches Poll. TCU Baylor got left out due to non con. It is a factor and if 1 team gets 12 fbs games vs another with 11, it all matters.
#628171
tyndal23 wrote: July 2nd, 2021, 1:09 pm

Our baseball team at large bid probably came mathematically that close. VCU series scheduled last second was tHe difference if we went or not. Playoff Committee had us unranked with 1 loss last year and 2 P5 wins simply based on how awful our SOS was even though AP and Coaches had us ranked and they are fairly consistent with SOS vs AP and Coaches Poll. TCU Baylor got left out due to non con. It is a factor and if 1 team gets 12 fbs games vs another with 11, it all matters.
I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. I really don't think replacing an FCS school with another cupcake would ever be the difference between a team making or missing out on the playoff.

With that being said you could make the case that scheduling 5+ years out is really hard and you never really know how good a team is going to be that year. an FCS school will always be considered a cupcake while FIU will have it's relative ups and downs. At the beginning of the season western Kentucky looked like a close win against a good team but we later found out they weren't the same quality as recent seasons. Same for Virginia tech. On the other hand coastal Carolina turned out to be a much tougher game than before the season.
LUOrange liked this
#628174
Ill flame wrote: July 2nd, 2021, 1:23 pm
tyndal23 wrote: July 2nd, 2021, 1:09 pm

Our baseball team at large bid probably came mathematically that close. VCU series scheduled last second was tHe difference if we went or not. Playoff Committee had us unranked with 1 loss last year and 2 P5 wins simply based on how awful our SOS was even though AP and Coaches had us ranked and they are fairly consistent with SOS vs AP and Coaches Poll. TCU Baylor got left out due to non con. It is a factor and if 1 team gets 12 fbs games vs another with 11, it all matters.
I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. I really don't think replacing an FCS school with another cupcake would ever be the difference between a team making or missing out on the playoff.

With that being said you could make the case that scheduling 5+ years out is really hard and you never really know how good a team is going to be that year. an FCS school will always be considered a cupcake while FIU will have it's relative ups and downs. At the beginning of the season western Kentucky looked like a close win against a good team but we later found out they weren't the same quality as recent seasons. Same for Virginia tech. On the other hand coastal Carolina turned out to be a much tougher game than before the season.
Maybe. We will find out soon how Ian and other schools view it. If an AD is more worried about getting to 6 win bowl eligible, probably not really focused on scheduling for a playoff spot anyway.
#628204
Let's beat the hard charging Campbell Fighting Camels first! :lol: :lol: :lol:
We have some decent games ahead of us but we will not garner a P5 like respect for some time.
Best G5 after continual victories a reality and I believe that is HCHF's goal a s well.
The only boost in our stock most likely comes from being added to a conference IMHO.
#628216
CCWMichael wrote: July 3rd, 2021, 11:22 am Let's beat the hard charging Campbell Fighting Camels first! :lol: :lol: :lol:
We have some decent games ahead of us but we will not garner a P5 like respect for some time.
Best G5 after continual victories a reality and I believe that is HCHF's goal a s well.
The only boost in our stock most likely comes from being added to a conference IMHO.
Wrong thread
#628876
Sly Fox wrote: July 16th, 2021, 9:43 am It impacts the selection committee's choices for at larges via Strength of Schedule. But Colorado's scheduling in these two home-and-homes was done for obvious reasons: Easy Wins & DFW recruiting.
SMU isn’t an easy win in Dallas for CO ( currently) As for recruiting DFW - 100% agree - surprised it isn’t a 1-1 with TCU -if your trying to recruit that area, at least play a P5, but CO isn’t flexing it’s “perceived P5 muscles” and instead looking at big picture - It is also a good/accessible/fun road trip for CO fans - would be interested to see if UNT and SMU allotted more tickets for CO as part of the home and home deal.
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