Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

#627963
Now that 12 team playoff seems imminent, what does that mean for LU Independent scheduling philosophy? Clearly “making a bowl” will not resonate with recruits. Does this make AAC or any G5 want to expand and add teams or hold pat? Does LU focus more on maximizing Independent status and if so how do they do that - less P5 games, 1-2 more or max P5 games possible? Is Realignment dead with this news or do conferences ( mainly current G5 ) add perceived power/chances to make the playoff vs not diluting their $? I don’t see any reason for AAC to expand, little reason for Sunbelt to expand or any P5. ( open to different opinions). Talk to me Goose....
#627970
FBS distributions remain the determining factor in how the 12-team format will influence scheduling and realignment. The currnt contract isn't necessarily abandoned by the playoff expansion. And it remains in the A5/P5 best interests to continue to horde the most largesse from the NCAA. Follow the money.

In other words, hang tight with our scheduling strategies until the dust settles. I am certainly thrilled that we have locked in the local P5 dates so far into the future. If the money gets locked up by whoever wins in the playoffs then you can expect the P5s to want to beef up their schedules to increase their league's chances of scoring at-larges. That could mean they abandon FCS schools altogether and are more selective on G5/Indy opponents.
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#627989
Thinking long term we are heading toward a CFP where every conference champion will receive a spot. It would make more sense for G5 conferences to move towards smaller more regionally aligned conferences to limit costs while splitting the CFP money across fewer teams. P5 conferences will likely maintain the status quo with few changes.

If I'm the AAC I would kick out navy and go to 10 teams until 2 more schools set themselves apart from everyone else. Georgia st, UAB, Liberty and app state all show potential but it's too soon to say who will reach it.
#627999
BYU usually schedules about 5-6 P5 schools each year. I would think if we wanted to position ourselves for a playoff spot we would need to be somewhere near 4-6. The problem with that for us would be securing home games. BYU has no problem with P5 home games. The next two years will be critical for us. To have a chance at some home games we need to make waves and a name for ourselves by winning now.
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#628000
LUGrad2000 wrote: June 27th, 2021, 11:33 pm BYU usually schedules about 5-6 P5 schools each year. I would think if we wanted to position ourselves for a playoff spot we would need to be somewhere near 4-6. The problem with that for us would be securing home games. BYU has no problem with P5 home games. The next two years will be critical for us. To have a chance at some home games we need to make waves and a name for ourselves by winning now.
The 12 team playoff changes things a lot in my view of CFB and for LU. I really don’t think there is a right or wrong answer near term. For example 2021 ( theoretically ) LU could go undefeated and have beaten x amount of conference champions and get in a playoff. It all comes down to W-L of opponents and for giggles, say we beat Ole Miss and they beat Bama but were still a 3 loss team but ranked pretty high etc...and there is a 2 loss ND and BYU and the typical 2- loss plethora of P5 teams - getting a spot is very realistic. Other years, 4 P5 wins won’t be enough due to opponents W-L/SOS, ND taking a slot and several 1 loss or high ranked P5 teams ( P5 teams with 2 losses and extreme close conference champ game losses and very high SOS ). I sort of go back to my original argument that 4 P5 is not enough to recruit enough P5 players to actually win all 4 P5 games and think we need to go all in budgeting and scheduling P5 HOWEVER, now one can realistically argue that philosophy could cost us a shot at a playoff birth when a much weaker undefeated schedule would get us in. As for your point, In order for LU to get 1 for 1 home and home games with ACC like BYU does with P12 and other conferences, I don’t see a shortcut from my original plan BUT if we did do it, I will argue that ACC will have even have more incentive to add LU as a P5 equivalent. Will there be a year where easier schedule gets LU in a playoff - yes. Is it the right thinking long term if your vision is to “compete” at the highest level? Not so sure. Just happy the lines are blurring between P5/G5.
#628032
This isn't likely but if this 12 team playoff happens in it's current form that c-usa east division looks like a realistic path towards being an undefeated conference champion. All we would need to do is be ranked higher than a P5 or AAC champ and we're in without having to play a bunch of P5s.
#628033
Ill flame wrote: June 28th, 2021, 9:56 pm This isn't likely but if this 12 team playoff happens in it's current form that c-usa east division looks like a realistic path towards being an undefeated conference champion. All we would need to do is be ranked higher than a P5 or AAC champ and we're in without having to play a bunch of P5s.
No thanks, I would like to be able to watch LU games....and didn’t they already turn us down ?
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/confere ... v-contract
LU 57 liked this
#628034
tyndal23 wrote: June 28th, 2021, 11:34 pm
Ill flame wrote: June 28th, 2021, 9:56 pm This isn't likely but if this 12 team playoff happens in it's current form that c-usa east division looks like a realistic path towards being an undefeated conference champion. All we would need to do is be ranked higher than a P5 or AAC champ and we're in without having to play a bunch of P5s.
No thanks, I would like to be able to watch LU games....and didn’t they already turn us down ?
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/confere ... v-contract
That's an interesting article. They turned us down a few years ago but a lot has changed since then. C-USA is trending down and may get desperate soon while we have proven that we can win at the FBS level which wasn't a certainty before. Im not necessarily saying we should but I like the idea of dominating a weak conference like app state does in the Sunbelt.
#628036
Ill flame wrote: June 29th, 2021, 12:26 am
tyndal23 wrote: June 28th, 2021, 11:34 pm
Ill flame wrote: June 28th, 2021, 9:56 pm This isn't likely but if this 12 team playoff happens in it's current form that c-usa east division looks like a realistic path towards being an undefeated conference champion. All we would need to do is be ranked higher than a P5 or AAC champ and we're in without having to play a bunch of P5s.
No thanks, I would like to be able to watch LU games....and didn’t they already turn us down ?
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/confere ... v-contract
That's an interesting article. They turned us down a few years ago but a lot has changed since then. C-USA is trending down and may get desperate soon while we have proven that we can win at the FBS level which wasn't a certainty before. Im not necessarily saying we should but I like the idea of dominating a weak conference like app state does in the Sunbelt.
Yes it is something to definitely consider. I see it difficult to be the highest rated G5 team with AAC, Sunbelt, and then Boise St in the mix battling for 1 spot. Maybe a better shot is Indie and playing a top tier G5 team in Sunbelt,AAC,and Confernce USA and 2 P5. A perfect example is our 2024 schedule - very realistic that we play 4 conference champions, AAC,Mac,Comfernce USA, Sunbelt. If we win all but UNC and play them tough - good shot even as a 1 loss team. Will top G5 teams now risk playing us? I think That may be harder than scheduling P5’s moving forward....
#628037
Top G5 schools are usually looking for games against other top G5s to boost SOS since P5s are reluctant to schedule those schools. Hopefully by 2024 we are in the same conversation as Boise st or app state as a top non P5. We certainly were this year but it usually takes a couple years for the media to acknowledge that.

I also think competing against the other G5 champs for one CFP spot is easier than competing against elite P5 schools for an at large berth.
#628038
Ill flame wrote: June 29th, 2021, 12:25 pm Top G5 schools are usually looking for games against other top G5s to boost SOS since P5s are reluctant to schedule those schools. Hopefully by 2024 we are in the same conversation as Boise st or app state as a top non P5. We certainly were this year but it usually takes a couple years for the media to acknowledge that.

I also think competing against the other G5 champs for one CFP spot is easier than competing against elite P5 schools for an at large berth.
Yes, but will that continue with a playoff spot on the line. AAC probably views just win conference and they are in so don’t risk much on Non con games. I think Boise St has to schedule non con tougher than AAC. Sunbelt ( based on last year ) might opt for 1 weak P5 and couple of cupcakes. Will be interesting to watch. Does AAC go from trying to be a P6 to - ok let’s not risk our spot. The rest of G5 probably needs to take a bit of risk non con.
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#628039
The only reasons to consider joining CUSA or the Belt are to improve our olympic sports and to establish regional rivalries with Marshall and ODU or App State and GA Southern. CUSA has good MBB and baseball, and the Belt is only a few rungs better than the ASUN cause they're FBS and most should have better facilities. But adding EKU, JSU and UCA narrows the gap between the Belt and the ASUN some. Again, they both add better regional opponents and neither should have historic high school gyms.

However and IMO, this playoff proposal puts us on a mostly even football playing field with the Belt and CUSA. That additional conference champ slot will almost always go to the AAC and occasionally to Boise State. Perhaps sometimes it'll go to a handful of schools in the Belt and CUSA. Our ability to schedule 12 games vs. 4 OOC games theoretically should give us a decent chance at 1 of the 6 at larges.

My ideal schedule would be 4 P5's, 4 good/top G5's, and 4 indies. My preference in those Indies would be to include BYU and/or Army every year). I'd eliminate the FCS games altogether, since they don't help us with playoff considerations, and Bowl games will be devalued some with this playoff. Although, it's most or very likely that the only G5 making the playoffs will be a G5 champ from the AAC.
Last edited by LUOrange on June 29th, 2021, 8:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#628040
I just don't think we are at a point where we should be getting rid of something (one FCS game a year) which unquestionably increases our chances of becoming bowl eligible each and every year, in favor of a schedule which MIGHT slightly increase our minuscule chances of a playoff bid. Too early for that IMHO.
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#628042
olldflame wrote: June 29th, 2021, 5:02 pm I just don't think we are at a point where we should be getting rid of something (one FCS game a year) which unquestionably increases our chances of becoming bowl eligible each and every year, in favor of a schedule which MIGHT slightly increase our minuscule chances of a playoff bid. Too early for that IMHO.
Since schedules are done 5 years in advance, when would you suggest? Is your goal just to make a bowl game ( if any bowls can still afford to exist after playoff expansion ). Will wait and see if someone at the top clarifies if the playoff expansion changes our stated goals ( that recruits take note of ). If they state we just want to make a bowl, then by all means keep FCS game. I doubt we hear any top G5 schools say “ our goal is to make a bowl” moving forward. If we are worried about bowl eligibility and not playoff eligibility, then we may as well go back to FCS. Scheduling philosophies on how to get a shot year in and year out is certainly debatable, but I certainly hope the goal isn’t debatable, regardless of the odds. There are 6 spots up for grabs where the W/L / SOS factor in. There are a lot of years where there are 3 loss P5 teams hovering around that 12 spot and 1 more datapoint is the difference for a Second G5, or BYU, Army, Liberty etc to claim.
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#628043
I agree with Tyndal wholeheartedly that our stated goal has to be making the playoffs, as it should be for every FBS school. It's kind of like in BB, your objective is to make The Dance but be more than willing to go to the NIT if you don't get the invite.

I've long thought that since we're Liberty, we have more to prove than any other school to impress both the selection committees and a prospective conference. So in that regard, eliminating the FCS games and eliminating or minimizing the non-D1's in MBB is very important for our goals. And, we're obviously not a P5 or P5 Light (AAC) school. We can't afford their luxuries yet.
Last edited by LUOrange on June 29th, 2021, 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#628048
Here is some data on how Playoff Committee has viewed a Western MIchigan 2016 undefeated team with 2 P5 wins and a 69 Ranked SOS. 1 P5 had 7 wins the other 3. ( Northwestern and Illinois ) and they played an FCS game and won a Conference Champ game ( close ).

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/rank ... ?year=2020


So If I am Ian, I am thinking no FCS, and either strong enough G5 and at least 3 P5..
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#628049
Unless we are replacing the FCS game against a quality opponent instead of another game against umass i'm not sure how much it's gonna add to our playoff chances. No matter our strategy we should try to get away from playing the bottom of the barrel G5 schools. I get that playing the weak independents is necessary but playing ULM and fiu does nothing for us.
#628051
Ill flame wrote: June 30th, 2021, 12:55 am Unless we are replacing the FCS game against a quality opponent instead of another game against umass i'm not sure how much it's gonna add to our playoff chances. No matter our strategy we should try to get away from playing the bottom of the barrel G5 schools. I get that playing the weak independents is necessary but playing ULM and fiu does nothing for us.
There is zero data points awarded in SOS for an FCS win - even beating national champ JMU does nothing on that front. Clearly the Committee has shown SOS as a priority ( throw last year’s data out - everything was off kilter with the dramatic difference in opponents played by conferences/teams). Weak G5 - agreed, except it is much tougher to guess on G5 teams 5 years in advance due to coaching turnover and up and down swings in general with only a handful of exceptions. As for FIU and So Miss - we were just happy to get games in our first 4-5 years. Hopefully UCONN replaces NMSU moving forward, UMASS is currently recruiting at a good clip ( how, I have no idea ) and should improve. Ian will get it all figured out provided he has the support and President doesn’t tell him “ not to take chances and just worry about making a bowl game”.
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#628093
Ill flame wrote: June 30th, 2021, 12:55 am Unless we are replacing the FCS game against a quality opponent instead of another game against umass i'm not sure how much it's gonna add to our playoff chances. No matter our strategy we should try to get away from playing the bottom of the barrel G5 schools. I get that playing the weak independents is necessary but playing ULM and fiu does nothing for us.
Seriously? It gives us a better chance to WIN!

I think some of you guys are forgetting just how weak LU’s schedule was last year. Taking nothing away from what was accomplished, LU does not win as many games or have the best bowl game of the whole bowl season if we had played the likes of the schedule you guys are advocating for.

Try going 5-7 a couple times like we will if we’re playing the schedules you’re pushing, and see what happens to recruiting. Coaches get this! There is no better recruiting tool than WINNING, and no greater negative recruiting tool others will use than LOSING. And no degree of “We played P5’s!” will eliminate the fallout from losing.

You should absolutely have 1-2 games a year that stretch you beyond your current level. Work your way to beating them, then go schedule bigger. But if you bite off more than you can chew too early, you’ll set this program back a decade. Money and coaching quality are a greater likelihood of on-field success, but they don’t guarantee it. You can’t buy wins. You can’t guarantee better recruiting just because you scheduled six P5’s and called yourself P5-equivalent. WIN like it, and the rest will follow!
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