Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

#641470
The only thing we can really do is get too big to ignore. UCF, BYU and Cincinnati all did that and are being rewarded for it. If Boise st had our geography I could say the same about them. Right now the best path forward is making it to a NY6 bowl or cfp and prove that we belong with the big boys. That path is way easier in a conference rather than as an independent.
#641472
Dabo hinted that the NCAA (at least for football) might "blow up" in the not too distant future. I tend to agree with him. We will go to a further bifurcation of Division 1A (FBS). The schools able to attract students with BIG NIL $$$ are few. The schools able to keep funding things like Grade Bonus Money are shrinking.
#641484
Ill flame wrote: April 11th, 2022, 3:32 pm The only thing we can really do is get too big to ignore. UCF, BYU and Cincinnati all did that and are being rewarded for it. If Boise st had our geography I could say the same about them. Right now the best path forward is making it to a NY6 bowl or cfp and prove that we belong with the big boys. That path is way easier in a conference rather than as an independent.
This is where I fundamentally disagree 100%. I guess define Big ? Attendance? TV ratings?

UCF - 2nd largest student body, FL recruiting market, Orlando TV Market. Should have been Big 12 Last round of expansion.

Houston - tv market, great recruiting area, and a billionaire that pushed their facilities to minimum P5 standards.

BYU - Independent route and Big 12 desperation got them to P5 ( the only conference that would take them ideologically and probably only one that would vote in LU in time ).

Cincinnati - tv market, on field success and local support. Take away tv market and they are Boise St

Boise St. - bigger tv local market than LU. ( LU potential tv market is national ). Best on field performance of G5 over time, still not good enough to get an invite ( yet ).

Starting from the bottom G5 and steadily moving up could work for Houston, Cinci,UCF, UTSA, Charlotte, based on recruiting area code and local tv market. Neither of those will change for LU over time.
#641489
tyndal23 wrote: April 12th, 2022, 1:19 pm This is where I fundamentally disagree 100%. I guess define Big ? Attendance? TV ratings?

UCF - 2nd largest student body, FL recruiting market, Orlando TV Market. Should have been Big 12 Last round of expansion.

Houston - tv market, great recruiting area, and a billionaire that pushed their facilities to minimum P5 standards.

BYU - Independent route and Big 12 desperation got them to P5 ( the only conference that would take them ideologically and probably only one that would vote in LU in time ).

Cincinnati - tv market, on field success and local support. Take away tv market and they are Boise St

Boise St. - bigger tv local market than LU. ( LU potential tv market is national ). Best on field performance of G5 over time, still not good enough to get an invite ( yet ).

Starting from the bottom G5 and steadily moving up could work for Houston, Cinci,UCF, UTSA, Charlotte, based on recruiting area code and local tv market. Neither of those will change for LU over time.
Non liberty fans could say similar things about liberty if we got a P5 invite. "They have a huge enrollment and billions of dollars from LUO to build great facilities with." Hopefully we can eventually add a decent national fanbase to our list of advantages.

To answer your question I would say having a big athletic brand is more important than attendance and fanbase size. Boise st really doesn't have a big fan base but they get decent tv ratings for a G5 because of their brand. If we could pick up the boise metro area and put it in Central Nebraska they would probably be in the big 12 right now. Geography is the biggest thing holding them back.

You either love Liberty or love to hate Liberty. I think if our brand grows enough we are polarizing enough to create solid tv numbers and become attractive to the decision makers that prioritize dollars over our controversial nature. Steadily moving up is the most direct route to growing our brand.
#641494
Ill flame wrote: April 12th, 2022, 5:14 pm
tyndal23 wrote: April 12th, 2022, 1:19 pm This is where I fundamentally disagree 100%. I guess define Big ? Attendance? TV ratings?

UCF - 2nd largest student body, FL recruiting market, Orlando TV Market. Should have been Big 12 Last round of expansion.

Houston - tv market, great recruiting area, and a billionaire that pushed their facilities to minimum P5 standards.

BYU - Independent route and Big 12 desperation got them to P5 ( the only conference that would take them ideologically and probably only one that would vote in LU in time ).

Cincinnati - tv market, on field success and local support. Take away tv market and they are Boise St

Boise St. - bigger tv local market than LU. ( LU potential tv market is national ). Best on field performance of G5 over time, still not good enough to get an invite ( yet ).

Starting from the bottom G5 and steadily moving up could work for Houston, Cinci,UCF, UTSA, Charlotte, based on recruiting area code and local tv market. Neither of those will change for LU over time.
Non liberty fans could say similar things about liberty if we got a P5 invite. "They have a huge enrollment and billions of dollars from LUO to build great facilities with." Hopefully we can eventually add a decent national fanbase to our list of advantages.

To answer your question I would say having a big athletic brand is more important than attendance and fanbase size. Boise st really doesn't have a big fan base but they get decent tv ratings for a G5 because of their brand. If we could pick up the boise metro area and put it in Central Nebraska they would probably be in the big 12 right now. Geography is the biggest thing holding them back.

You either love Liberty or love to hate Liberty. I think if our brand grows enough we are polarizing enough to create solid tv numbers and become attractive to the decision makers that prioritize dollars over our controversial nature. Steadily moving up is the most direct route to growing our brand.
I agree ( except maybe not on Central NE location ). Example - App St ( who we are most like in geography, size and tv market ) can win 10 straight Conference Championships and get snubbed by UTSA who wins 3 Conference titles over 10 years BUT continues their “overnight popularity” simply by geography. App St and LU aren’t going to have dramatic increases in local tv and home fanbase. App St won’t have national appeal to casual fans even if they win 10 straight. LU does have casual national appeal and haters as you said, but it will remain small until we play and beat multiple P5 teams. IF LU were to win all 3 P5 + BYU this year, that would elevate our brand better than 10 straight CUSA titles - literally no one cares about G5 success and if on field success had anything to do with P5 invites - I would be singing a different tune.
#641497
"They lost to Liberty, they must be terrible/overrated" is something we are going to hear a lot when we beat low to mid tier P5s. That excuse doesn't hold nearly as much water if we beat P5 teams in a NY6 bowl. I would argue the 2007 Fiesta bowl single handedly did more for boise states brand than all of the great seasons and P5 wins they had after that and they did that in the WAC.

Also BYUs 2020 season earned them way more hype playing a bunch of G5s than their 2021 team that finished 6-1 against P5s. It seems backward to me but that's the way the cfb world works.
Purple Haize, LUOrange liked this
#641499
Ill flame wrote: April 12th, 2022, 10:05 pm "They lost to Liberty, they must be terrible/overrated" is something we are going to hear a lot when we beat low to mid tier P5s. That excuse doesn't hold nearly as much water if we beat P5 teams in a NY6 bowl. I would argue the 2007 Fiesta bowl single handedly did more for boise states brand than all of the great seasons and P5 wins they had after that and they did that in the WAC.

Also BYUs 2020 season earned them way more hype playing a bunch of G5s than their 2021 team that finished 6-1 against P5s. It seems backward to me but that's the way the cfb world works.
2020 was a boon for BYU,Coastal and LU. The perception lasts for a while, but reality has an asterisk.
And Boise St. who pounded my OU team in O7 ( people remember the ending but Boise beat us down for 3.5 quarters before we got lucky and took a lead near the end of regulation). My entire point is proven - they still are a G5 15 years later. if it were based on win % - they would have been first Cinderella to go P5. Now that was back before the days every NFL-prospect Jr/ senior “opted out of meaningless bowl” and back in the day where one team “just wasn’t motivated”.

BYU - completely different animal, but 2020 perception was great “short term perception” timing. Their “brand” has been solidified for decades. Could they have stayed in Mountain West and been called up by desperate Big 12 ? I could argue yes...was it a no brainer that they were the first team Big 12 based on Independent results and 2019/2020 and several years of perception of who they played since being Indie? I can argue yes ( plus their home fan base and national tv draw) . Does LU have a 65k stadium and huge local support with one of the leagues top traveling fan base? Or a 38 year old and only modern non Power Conference NC? - No. If we did, I wouldn’t really care because we would be in line for P5 one way or the other as an Indie or G5 - (half of the Cougar Board were whining about Indie schedule 18 months ago and no “conference championships” and the other half loved the tougher competition).

I will argue Utah is the one example of actual on field performance that got them bumped ahead of several “suitors” in PAC 12. I posted that huge long article on how it happened behind the scenes a couple of years ago on the mega thread. Financially, Utah was a mess ( like 95% of G5 teams) Worked out pretty well, but was real dicey from a $ perspective first few years for Utah. If BYU were a state school - Utah is still G5.
#641513
tyndal23 wrote: April 12th, 2022, 9:01 pm
IF LU were to win all 3 P5 + BYU this year, that would elevate our brand better than 10 straight CUSA titles
On this, I agree. Will you allow me to play devil’s advocate?

What if LU loses all four of those games decisively?

What if it does that several years in a row?
#641539
JK37 wrote: April 13th, 2022, 5:23 pm
tyndal23 wrote: April 12th, 2022, 9:01 pm
IF LU were to win all 3 P5 + BYU this year, that would elevate our brand better than 10 straight CUSA titles
On this, I agree. Will you allow me to play devil’s advocate?

What if LU loses all four of those games decisively?

What if it does that several years in a row?
On paper LU should absolutely lose them decisively. It defies all logic LU competed as well as they have in all P5 games past 2 years. If we lost decisively several years in a row under Tyndal23 Plan - then that is “expected” ( not by me) Are you going to give up your season tickets if LU decided to play 6 P5 games with recruiting rankings of 65 and complain we aren’t playing UTEP and Sam Houston annually with recruiting rankings of 95? Claim ticket sales are down because we aren’t in a Conference ? No harm if you think that way, A lot of BYU fans were bemoaning lack of conference and missing Mountain West until 2020 ( literally half of them or more if you followed their message boards ).

As for scheduling 3 P5 with G5 talent while in CUSA - I prefer 3 P5 - but it really doesn’t make much sense UNLESS it is Duke, Vandy, types - (get the hype of Coastal when they beat KS and parlay that with CUSA champs). Scheduling VT,UNC,South Carolina types as auto 17 point underdogs - probably not smart. I guess 1 VT (type) and 2 bottom 10 P5 schools works and still gives us bragging rights over SunBelt schedule. I really think top Sunbelt and top AAC teams will try and avoid LU way more than P5 teams. I do think 3 P5 games does give us a slight boost in recruiting ( 1.5-2 point average increase ) vs just 1 P5 and weak CUSA.
( Freeze can easily sell that to a transfer - Play for Conference Championship, possible playoff and we play enough P5 to showcase your skills for NFL scouts )
#641592
LUDad wrote: April 16th, 2022, 12:41 pm Getting back to the premise proposed in the title of this thread, how does the fact that we are likely looking to at least 2026 before any changes take place in the playoffs change things for LU?

https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cf ... ion-update
The fact they didn’t sign on for Playoff expansion increases the chance of a “breakaway” dramatically.

Invites
PAC 12 - USC, Oregon,UCLA,Stanford
Big 12 - maybe none
SEC - all but Miss St, Mizzou, Vandy
Big 10 - All but MD,Rutgers, NW, Illinois, NW,Indiana
ACC - UNC,Miami,VT,Clemson
ND
5-6 more like UCF, Okie St, WVU,BYU types to get to at least 32
#641593
tyndal23 wrote: April 16th, 2022, 2:19 pm
LUDad wrote: April 16th, 2022, 12:41 pm Getting back to the premise proposed in the title of this thread, how does the fact that we are likely looking to at least 2026 before any changes take place in the playoffs change things for LU?

https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cf ... ion-update
The fact they didn’t sign on for Playoff expansion increases the chance of a “breakaway” dramatically.

Invites
PAC 12 - USC, Oregon,UCLA,Stanford
Big 12 - maybe none
SEC - all but Miss St, Mizzou, Vandy
Big 10 - All but MD,Rutgers, NW, Illinois, NW,Indiana
ACC - UNC,Miami,VT,Clemson
ND
5-6 more like UCF, Okie St, WVU,BYU types to get to at least 32
Then merge those 32 with the new USFL.
#641599
Just because the B1G is insisting on not giving ESPN a monopoly for the CFP doesn't mean a breakaway is going to happen. Not anytime soon at least. Also if a breakaway happens don't you think tv execs would want schools like Rutgers, Maryland, Illinois, Missouri, Boston College and Pittsburgh represented? Schools near large tv markets
#641613
Ill flame wrote: April 16th, 2022, 8:53 pm Just because the B1G is insisting on not giving ESPN a monopoly for the CFP doesn't mean a breakaway is going to happen. Not anytime soon at least. Also if a breakaway happens don't you think tv execs would want schools like Rutgers, Maryland, Illinois, Missouri, Boston College and Pittsburgh represented? Schools near large tv markets
It will be a Bezos type who makes a play and will set it up exactly like NFL and the 32 teams will be deep pocket major fan bases. So no, “ representation” means nothing without $ and value add. Strictly Business. The nostalgic will be left for remaining NCAA. As for the legal battle, will come down to language as being an NCAA Institution in current “media rights” and can be eliminated when each team dissolves as a “college institution representative” and “incorporates” then the next legal battle will be if “ ESPN or whomever claims right to Alabama Crimson Tide “media rights throughout current contract” and whether they would have to rename their team - then Bezos counters with “ if you want secondary rights in future - not a good idea”. Bezos “type” will recognize his new league is stronger and worth more to him personally divvying up tv rights on open market rather than trying to keep it all under Amazon umbrella. So in short, Bezos or another Billionaire uses his personal $, leverages his influence for his company like Amazon to get pole position for premiere games etc. A secondary benefit Is that Title 9 opens up many more male sports for those 32 teams since they will no longer count against...As for USFL comparison - pretty close except Bama has dissolved it college football team and is now “sponsoring” an AWFL team ( Amazon World Football League) complete with its own players union,stock ticker, NFT, fractional shares, etc.

Sort of like liberal CA drives the change to NIL and most argued for it without thinking it through, just like those who empathized with gay marriage and are shocked to find out just a few short years later Transvestites are teaching their kids to cut their bits off and play fantasy dress up during recess in preschool - it will happen even faster - because there is more $ in it...
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