A Sea Of Red

We’re now 20% into the season. We’ve had two games to see the newcomers along with some of our opponents.

How have your expectations changed based on what you’ve seen?

Try to answer by telling us what you originally expected vs what you now expect.

With so many guys to replace and so much unknown because of covid, I went into the season expecting 4-6 but thinking we had a chance to do better if things clicked.

After watching the first two games, I think anything less than 6-4 (assuming we get to play all ten games) will be very disappointing. I also think we have a legitimate shot at 7-3 if we have Malik vs the ACC and Coastal.

All depends on Malik’s injury. He’s a difference maker at this level

My expectations were anywhere from 4 to 6 wins but thought 6 wins may be really tough. I'll have go wait and see what happens with Malik to know for sure. If he is healthy, 7 wins is doable. If not, back to 5.

I honestly don’t think his injury matters a ton in my baseline. With Ferguson, we should handily beat both FCS teams and UL-Monroe. That’s five wins right there. Southern Miss we are favored in and they’re winless so far. I’d like to think Ferguson could beat them too. That’s six wins.

I don’t think we beat an ACC team or Coastal without Malik though.

Maybe I wasn't clear. 5 wins without Malik is doable, more than that is possible but would surpass my expectations. If he is back, I think 7 wins is doable.

I am more worried about the defense.

Yea I don’t know right now. Had Malik gotten hurt earlier in the game I think we lose. He single handedly kept a few drives alive. His athleticism is game changing.

So. Miss is not that bad of a team. They are BIG. I hope we can beat them at home. They could get down on themselves, that would help us. Our running game is really going to suffer, if we have to go without MW.

None. It doesn’t take long for a school with our resources to beat mediocre Or even good G5 teams. But as long as we stay in the G5 level we will lose good coaches every 2.5 years or every 1.5 years year like App St. Fans will get bored playing G5 and look forward to the 2-3 P5 games on the hopes we pull an upset then try and get behind another coaching staff ( again ) wash, rinse, repeat. 2027 P5 budget, P5 schedule, P5 players or wash,rinse,repeat...

tyndal23 wrote: ↑September 26th, 2020, 9:39 pm None. It doesn’t take long for a school with our resources to beat mediocre Or even good G5 teams. But as long as we stay in the G5 level we will lose good coaches every 2.5 years or every 1.5 years year like App St. Fans will get bored playing G5 and look forward to the 2-3 P5 games on the hopes we pull an upset then try and get behind another coaching staff ( again ) wash, rinse, repeat. 2027 P5 budget, P5 schedule, P5 players or wash,rinse,repeat...

You gotta admit, an announced plan like this to Freeze with the promise of backing and asking him to build something like Bowden at FSU.... it could work and could entice him to stay.

tyndal23 wrote: ↑September 26th, 2020, 9:39 pm None. It doesn’t take long for a school with our resources to beat mediocre Or even good G5 teams. But as long as we stay in the G5 level we will lose good coaches every 2.5 years or every 1.5 years year like App St. Fans will get bored playing G5 and look forward to the 2-3 P5 games on the hopes we pull an upset then try and get behind another coaching staff ( again ) wash, rinse, repeat. 2027 P5 budget, P5 schedule, P5 players or wash,rinse,repeat...

What does all that have to do with your expectations of this year’s team?

I thought 6 wins was wishful thinking and 7 was unrealistic with 3 p5 games and a few toss ups. After these last two games 6 wins seems very attainable and 7 doesn't seem out of reach.

Watching this offense average 500 yards per game I think we can score against nearly anyone. The biggest thing that's gonna keep us from beating teams is our defense. We have other issues and our defense isn't a complete dumpster fire but we still have a long way to go before we can consistently compete with the big boys.

I think if Willis is out for a period of time, Bennett should see significant playing time over the next two games to compare how both QB's respond to competition. Had their 3rd team QB played the entire game, I believe we lose.

My expectations are up but the quality of opponents is also up over the past few years. Same percentage of wins as last year is significant improvement.

My expectations are the same, 6-7 wins. HCHF has been a winner everywhere he has been.

I think we might be suffering from some recency bias with the D. Specifically, the staff really had no useable film on these guys with all of the transfers and we have had quite a few injuries in the secondary.

They will get things cleaned up in that regard and hopefully we will get some of the injured guys back.

I still think we have a great chance to be 6-0 rolling in to Lane.

Jonathan Carone wrote: ↑September 26th, 2020, 9:55 pm

tyndal23 wrote: ↑September 26th, 2020, 9:39 pm None. It doesn’t take long for a school with our resources to beat mediocre Or even good G5 teams. But as long as we stay in the G5 level we will lose good coaches every 2.5 years or every 1.5 years year like App St. Fans will get bored playing G5 and look forward to the 2-3 P5 games on the hopes we pull an upset then try and get behind another coaching staff ( again ) wash, rinse, repeat. 2027 P5 budget, P5 schedule, P5 players or wash,rinse,repeat...

What does all that have to do with your expectations of this year’s team?

Bumped 5-5 as a solid season to 6-4 as a solid season.

Jonathan Carone wrote: ↑September 26th, 2020, 7:47 pm I honestly don’t think his injury matters a ton in my baseline. With Ferguson, we should handily beat both FCS teams and UL-Monroe. That’s five wins right there. Southern Miss we are favored in and they’re winless so far. I’d like to think Ferguson could beat them too. That’s six wins.

I don’t think we beat an ACC team or Coastal without Malik though.

I'm not sure, with the way Tech handled NC State yesterday despite being minus 23 of their players including big names like Peoples as well as QB Hendon Hooker, we may have a shot at NC State even without Malik.

Hopefully Malik is ok and we'll have him for the ACC as well as Coastal.

I went in thinking 5-5. I obviously did not have them beating W. Kentucky. Now I have them at 6-4 minimum, 7-3 would be optimal. 8-2 would be a dream. 7-3 would be if we can pull off an upset against Syracuse, NC State, or Coastal Carolina, and hold serve vs. Southern Miss.

i said 5-5 or 6-4 from the start. i know we are going to have a "Liberty moment". i will say that i think we could win at NCS now so that would make it 7-3.

We need to win one of the acc games. Winning these first 2 was huge. Beating ulm southern miss and the fcs games will be expected and beating coastal wont make a lot of noise nationally. But if we can get 1 of those 3 and go 7 and 3 or 8 and 2 then we really move the ball forward big time. Depending on the bowl situation we would probably be pushing top 65 teams headed into next year with malik back.

jinxy wrote: ↑September 29th, 2020, 5:52 pm We need to win one of the acc games. Winning these first 2 was huge. Beating ulm southern miss and the fcs games will be expected and beating coastal wont make a lot of noise nationally. But if we can get 1 of those 3 and go 7 and 3 or 8 and 2 then we really move the ball forward big time. Depending on the bowl situation we would probably be pushing top 65 teams headed into next year with malik back.

That's what I'm hoping at this point. If our commits sign their NLI's, we have a big start for next season Lord willing.

My expectations have largely stayed neutral. I saw 5 or 6 wins with 7 as an outside possibility that could get some money in Vegas. At this point, I still think 5 or 6 is the ceiling with this group.

BJWilliams wrote: ↑September 29th, 2020, 6:31 pm My expectations have largely stayed neutral. I saw 5 or 6 wins with 7 as an outside possibility that could get some money in Vegas. At this point, I still think 5 or 6 is the ceiling with this group.

The uber-positive BJ is holding at 6?! I’m SHOCKED!!!!!

Haha...thanks for the sarcasm coach...

With the level of attrition (even pre-COVID) and the schedule we had initially, I didn't see this as a 7 or 8 win team (or even 9). A good team? Certainly, but I think we, even before all this went down with the pandemic and athletes transferring out and whatnot, were going to be around 5-7 wins. I think we have a good chance to at least keep our streak of non-losing regular seasons alive, but barely. I think if we can stay afloat for another season or two, and get a solid foundation of FBS caliber recruiting classes in, I think by 2023 or 2024, we could be a very strong independent and someone who could be in play for a New Years Six bowl game.

BJWilliams wrote: ↑September 29th, 2020, 7:06 pm Haha...thanks for the sarcasm coach...

With the level of attrition (even pre-COVID) and the schedule we had initially, I didn't see this as a 7 or 8 win team (or even 9). A good team? Certainly, but I think we, even before all this went down with the pandemic and athletes transferring out and whatnot, were going to be around 5-7 wins. I think we have a good chance to at least keep our streak of non-losing regular seasons alive, but barely. I think if we can stay afloat for another season or two, and get a solid foundation of FBS caliber recruiting classes in, I think by 2023 or 2024, we could be a very strong independent and someone who could be in play for a New Years Six bowl game.

Well they would have to change the rules for that to happen. Only top G5 is eligible for that NY6 spot.