Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

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By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#612437
Chance We Will Win (as of 10/18)

Southern Miss -71.2% (+2.3%)
Virginia Tech - 9.1% (+1.2%)
Western Carolina - 98.3% (+0.7%)
NC State - 22.1% (+4.3%)
Coastal Carolina - 29.6% (+4.5%)

Projected record: 7.3-2.7
Current FPI: 88* (+14)

Six Above Us
Ohio
Georgia Tech
Arkansas State
Georgia State
Charlotte
Western Michigan

Six Below Us
Ball State
Miami (OH)
Maryland
Nevada
Colorado State
Fresno State

Our Opponents*
Western Kentucky - 108 (-4)
FIU - 120 (--)
UL Monroe - 126 (--)
Syracuse - 105 (-18)
Southern Miss - 117 (+1)
Virginia Tech - 17 (+1)
NC State - 56 (+2)
Coastal Carolina - 64 (+3)

*(out of 127 teams)

Efficiencies^
Overall - 52.33 - 40 (+16)
Offense - 62.87 - 25 (+12)
Defense - 46.83 - 42 (+10)

(^first number is efficiency, second is where we rank nationally)

Random Rankings
Average FPI of teams we beat: 114 (+3)
Average FPI of teams we lost to: N/A
Projected record of teams we beat: 2.2 - 8.3
Projected record of teams we lost to: N/A
Average record of FBS teams we beat: .5-3.75
Average record of FBS teams we lost to: N/A
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By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#612438
Observations:

Beating Coastal will be a bigger upset than beating Syracuse.

NC State and Coastal are almost statistically equal.

The Sun Belt average FPI is 88.6. We're sitting at 88. Five of their ten teams are ahead of us.

The Conference USA average is 99.5. We're well above that average. Only four of their 13 teams are ahead of us.
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By Class of 20Something
Posts
#612483
Class of 20Something wrote: October 12th, 2020, 9:10 am Additional perspective.

Eliminating teams that still haven't played a snap of football.

76 teams are left. Liberty's FPI is 60 of the remaining 76.

Syracuse is 56 of the remaining.
Total FPI 88/130
Playing FPI 57/77

Syracuse drops to 63/77

They essentially swapped us, which I think is pretty disrespectful.
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By Class of 20Something
Posts
#612484
Jonathan Carone wrote: October 18th, 2020, 6:37 pm Observations:

Beating Coastal will be a bigger upset than beating Syracuse.

NC State and Coastal are almost statistically equal.

The Sun Belt average FPI is 88.6. We're sitting at 88. Five of their ten teams are ahead of us.

The Conference USA average is 99.5. We're well above that average. Only four of their 13 teams are ahead of us.
The MAC is pretty overrated too. Four teams having higher FPI(Buffalo, CMU, Ohio, Western Michigan) I really think we would smack all four.

The American is averaging 65.8. Liberty would be team 8 of 12. But FPI has a 2-3 Tulane team ahead of 5-0 Liberty.

The short term magic number to chase in FPI is 0.0 which would make us the most average FBS team. That's the magic number because that is ranked as #66. And coincidentally there are 66 P5 programs including ND and BYU.

That metric is the quantification of our goal of being among the elite G5 level programs.

# of Teams above 0.0 FPI
SEC - 13
ACC - 11
B1G - 11
PAC-12 - 10
Big XII - 8
AAC - 6
SBC - 3
CUSA - 2
MW - 1
MAC - 0
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By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#612494
It's hard to get a true grasp of where we are because the Pac 12 and MAC don't start playing for another couple weeks. That 0.0 number is a great reference point. We're at -5.5 this week which isn't terribly far away from that. Of the teams standing between us and 0.0, eight of the 22 teams haven't played yet. I know they don't hugely impact the 0.0 number, but it shows we're closer to that than it looks like at first glance.
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By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#612959
Chance We Will Win (as of 10/18)

Virginia Tech - 11.1% (+2.0%)
Western Carolina - 98.4% (+0.1%)
NC State - 28.3% (+6.2%)
UMass - 96.9% (--)
Coastal Carolina - 28.7% (-0.9%)

Projected record: 8.6 - 2.4
Current FPI: 83* (+5)

Six Above Us
Florida State
Tulane
Central Michigan
Ohio
Air Force
Michigan State

Six Below Us
Georgia State
Nevada
Georgia Tech
Western Michigan
Hawai'i
Miami (OH)

Our Opponents*
Western Kentucky - 108 (--)
FIU - 121 (-1)
UL Monroe - 126 (--)
Syracuse - 98 (-7)
Southern Miss - 117 (--)
Virginia Tech - 19 (-2)
NC State - 61 (-5)
UMass - 127
Coastal Carolina - 62 (+2)

*(out of 127 teams)

Efficiencies^
Overall - 53.52 - 52 (-12)
Offense - 68.47 - 23 (+2)
Defense - 41.66 - 70 (-28)

(^first number is efficiency, second is where we rank nationally)

Random Rankings
Average FPI of teams we beat: 114 (--)
Average FPI of teams we lost to: N/A
Projected record of teams we beat: 1.85 - 7.3
Projected record of teams we lost to: N/A
Average record of FBS teams we beat: 0.8-4.4
Average record of FBS teams we lost to: N/A
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#612960
Jonathan Carone wrote: October 19th, 2020, 10:27 am It's hard to get a true grasp of where we are because the Pac 12 and MAC don't start playing for another couple weeks. That 0.0 number is a great reference point. We're at -5.5 this week which isn't terribly far away from that. Of the teams standing between us and 0.0, eight of the 22 teams haven't played yet. I know they don't hugely impact the 0.0 number, but it shows we're closer to that than it looks like at first glance.
We are at -4.6 right now. Nearly an entire point better than last week. Only 14 teams between us an 0.0.
User avatar
By Class of 20Something
Posts
#612986
Class of 20Something wrote: October 19th, 2020, 9:35 am.

# of Teams above 0.0 FPI
SEC - 13
ACC - 11
B1G - 11
PAC-12 - 10
Big XII - 8
AAC - 6
SBC - 3
CUSA - 2
MW - 1
MAC - 0
# of Teams above 0.0 FPI
SEC - 13
ACC - 11
B1G - 11
PAC-12 - 10
Big XII - 9
AAC - 6
SBC - 3
CUSA - 2
MW - 2
Independent - 1
MAC - 0
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#612996
Observations:

NC State and Coastal are still almost statistically equal.

The Sun Belt average FPI is 87.4. We're now at 83 and only three of their ten teams are ahead of us. We were equal to their average behind five teams last week.

The Conference USA average is 103. If you take out Marshall (37), the average CUSA team sits at 109.6. They're by far the worst conference in the country. We're well above that average. Only two of their 12 teams are ahead of us (it was four last week).

If you look at the natural leagues to compare us to (Conference USA and the Sun Belt), we’re currently sitting at sixth behind Marshall, App, Louisiana, Coastal, and FAU.
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By phoenix
Registration Days Posts
#613059
Did anyone seriously think we'd have a shot at being 8-3 this season?

I know that several schools have had REALLY bad years (Syracuse), but you'd have to have been chugging major Kool Aid to seriously think 8-3 this year. I think I said I'd be happy with 7-4 (of course, Coastal is a lot better than I thought they'd be, so there we go with MY prognostication abilities).

Someone said something to me the other day about Liberty's weak schedule. I told them that so far, we've beaten every team that was willing to play us - that's all we can do as an independent. If schools are afraid of the risk, or are unwilling to give us any validation as a program, that's on them. But this season, the team has taken care of what they have control over.
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By Liberty22
Registration Days Posts
#613070
phoenix wrote: October 26th, 2020, 5:25 pm Did anyone seriously think we'd have a shot at being 8-3 this season?

I know that several schools have had REALLY bad years (Syracuse), but you'd have to have been chugging major Kool Aid to seriously think 8-3 this year. I think I said I'd be happy with 7-4 (of course, Coastal is a lot better than I thought they'd be, so there we go with MY prognostication abilities).

Someone said something to me the other day about Liberty's weak schedule. I told them that so far, we've beaten every team that was willing to play us - that's all we can do as an independent. If schools are afraid of the risk, or are unwilling to give us any validation as a program, that's on them. But this season, the team has taken care of what they have control over.
Did you mean to say 8-3? I seriously think we have a shot at 9-2 assuming we don’t upset one of the big boys. I know CCU is good but I wouldn’t put them on the P5 level good just like they wouldn’t for us.
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By chris leedlelee
Posts
#613074
JK37 wrote: October 25th, 2020, 10:48 pmAAC or bust, baby
The AAC has an open spot with the departure of UConn. If they are smart and we keep on winning, they could pick us up, considering the controversy of Jerry Jr. is gone, and we would be a natural fit within that conference. I'm sure we could make a very generous offer for admittance.

I think LU should be taking advantage of the COVID19 financial shortfalls the AAC will be for sure having and at least place an offer. The AAC is the only conference in the G5 that I think is worthy of giving up independence.
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By cruzan_flame13
Posts
#613078
chris leedlelee wrote: October 26th, 2020, 7:48 pm
JK37 wrote: October 25th, 2020, 10:48 pmAAC or bust, baby
The AAC has an open spot with the departure of UConn. If they are smart and we keep on winning, they could pick us up, considering the controversy of Jerry Jr. is gone, and we would be a natural fit within that conference. I'm sure we could make a very generous offer for admittance.

I think LU should be taking advantage of the COVID19 financial shortfalls the AAC will be for sure having and at least place an offer. The AAC is the only conference in the G5 that I think is worthy of giving up independence.
I definitely agree on this, but not saying the other parts of your messages is ridiculous.
By tyndal23
Posts
#613080
Short sided for football. Recruiting for 6 P5 teams on a schedule gets you much higher recruits than G5 ( even AAC ) and probably harder to actually win a conference championship in AAC than actually beating 6 lower tier P5 teams in the near term. You also still have the same coach poaching issue. Budget schedule recruit P5 independent sooner rather than later...
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By cruzan_flame13
Posts
#613081
tyndal23 wrote: October 26th, 2020, 8:58 pm Short sided for football. Recruiting for 6 P5 teams on a schedule gets you much higher recruits than G5 ( even AAC ) and probably harder to actually win a conference championship in AAC than actually beating 6 lower tier P5 teams in the near term. You also still have the same coach poaching issue. Budget schedule recruit P5 independent sooner rather than later...
If we continue the trajectory we are going at the moment, I could possibly consider playing more upper G5-P5's per season starting around 2025-2026 and beyond. That is a possibly if Freeze remain here longer (with help of family loving it here, bias ridiculous of his pass and and continued support and love from the support/fan base) and we continue a trend of high potential recruits who favor the mission of our school.
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By Liberty22
Registration Days Posts
#613082
cruzan_flame13 wrote: October 26th, 2020, 9:28 pm
tyndal23 wrote: October 26th, 2020, 8:58 pm Short sided for football. Recruiting for 6 P5 teams on a schedule gets you much higher recruits than G5 ( even AAC ) and probably harder to actually win a conference championship in AAC than actually beating 6 lower tier P5 teams in the near term. You also still have the same coach poaching issue. Budget schedule recruit P5 independent sooner rather than later...
If we continue the trajectory we are going at the moment, I could possibly consider playing more upper G5-P5's per season starting around 2025-2026 and beyond. That is a possibly if Freeze remain here longer (with help of family loving it here, bias ridiculous of his pass and and continued support and love from the support/fan base) and we continue a trend of high potential recruits who favor the mission of our school.
Covid actually proved this type of scheduling as an independent is the best path to the playoffs. The reason Liberty has the best path of any G5 is because we aren't in a conference and we scheduled 3 p5's. Right now i think we should always be scheduling at least 3 P5's and then ramp up starting in 2028 or whatever. Maybe a commitment like that to Freeze makes him more likely to stick around. Knowing we want to be P5 equivalent and are going to schedule that way and that he would have a path to playoffs. Could be the makings of something incredible.
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By Class of 20Something
Posts
#613122
tyndal23 wrote: October 26th, 2020, 8:58 pm Short sided for football. Recruiting for 6 P5 teams on a schedule gets you much higher recruits than G5 ( even AAC ) and probably harder to actually win a conference championship in AAC than actually beating 6 lower tier P5 teams in the near term. You also still have the same coach poaching issue. Budget schedule recruit P5 independent sooner rather than later...
I actually agree for football. But for ALL OTHER SPORTS, it's a disservice to the players, coaches, and fans to pass up that opportunity. I can get excited for UCF, Memphis, Houston, SMU, Tulsa, Cincy etc in all sports. And the football schedule is frankly still good. It raises the floor for everyone but likely puts a ceiling on football. I do think that we would need to commit to playing 3 P5 schools if we were to join for strength of schedule sake. Annually be able to say we have the hardest G5 schedule is probably foundational if we ever had an opportunity to go P5 way down the line.
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By thepostman
Registration Days Posts
#613153
Agreed. The AAC is a big step up for our entire athletics dept and should be a short term goal in my opinion. We just can't take as hard of line on 2 for 1's with P5 schools like UCF does.
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By cruzan_flame13
Posts
#613157
We wouldn't get approval from most of the presidents. Do you want their student bodies and donuts lose their minds. Yeah they are owned; let's do what we can as an independent for the time being. It's unfortunate but it is what it is.
By tyndal23
Posts
#613162
Liberty22 wrote: October 26th, 2020, 9:38 pm
cruzan_flame13 wrote: October 26th, 2020, 9:28 pm
tyndal23 wrote: October 26th, 2020, 8:58 pm Short sided for football. Recruiting for 6 P5 teams on a schedule gets you much higher recruits than G5 ( even AAC ) and probably harder to actually win a conference championship in AAC than actually beating 6 lower tier P5 teams in the near term. You also still have the same coach poaching issue. Budget schedule recruit P5 independent sooner rather than later...
If we continue the trajectory we are going at the moment, I could possibly consider playing more upper G5-P5's per season starting around 2025-2026 and beyond. That is a possibly if Freeze remain here longer (with help of family loving it here, bias ridiculous of his pass and and continued support and love from the support/fan base) and we continue a trend of high potential recruits who favor the mission of our school.
Covid actually proved this type of scheduling as an independent is the best path to the playoffs. The reason Liberty has the best path of any G5 is because we aren't in a conference and we scheduled 3 p5's. Right now i think we should always be scheduling at least 3 P5's and then ramp up starting in 2028 or whatever. Maybe a commitment like that to Freeze makes him more likely to stick around. Knowing we want to be P5 equivalent and are going to schedule that way and that he would have a path to playoffs. Could be the makings of something incredible.

You really think Playoff Committee is going to vote in a team that played 3 P5 games in a normal season? I would raise Cain as a football fan about it Even if they voted LU in under that scenario. I guess if they win every game by 5O and the other bubble team had 2 losses - it could happen.
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By Just John
Registration Days Posts
#613163
cruzan_flame13 wrote: October 27th, 2020, 6:41 pm We wouldn't get approval from most of the presidents. Do you want their student bodies and donuts lose their minds. Yeah they are owned; let's do what we can as an independent for the time being. It's unfortunate but it is what it is.
I don't care if their students, donors or donuts lose their minds. Not my problem. :D
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