Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#609734
Chance We Will Win (as of 9/14)

Western Kentucky - 27.4%
FIU - 59.5%
North Alabama - 97.6%
UL Monroe - 71.4%
Syracuse - 34.1%
Southern Miss - 50.2%
Virginia Tech - 6.2%
Western Carolina - 97.2%
NC State - 23.0%
Coastal Carolina - 23.7%

Projected record: 4.9-5.1
Current FPI: 68 (of 77)

Six Above Us
Rice
Navy
Southern Miss
South Alabama
Georgia State
Kansas

Six Below Us
Georgia Southern
Charlotte
North Texas
Florida International
UTSA
UL Monroe

Our Opponents
Western Kentucky - 50
FIU - 72
UL Monroe - 74
Syracuse - 59
Southern Miss - 64
Virginia Tech - 13
NC State - 49
Coastal Carolina - 46

Random Rankings
Average FPI of teams we beat: N/A
Average FPI of teams we lost to: N/A
Projected record of teams we beat: N/A
Projected record of teams we lost to: N/A
Average record of FBS teams we beat: N/A
Average record of FBS teams we lost to: N/A
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User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#610347
Chance We Will Win (as of 9/20)

FIU - 67.3% (+7.8%)
North Alabama - 98.2% (+0.6%)
UL Monroe - 85.5% (+14.1%)
Syracuse - 40.2% (+6.1%)
Southern Miss - 58.7% (+8.5%)
Virginia Tech - 8.4% (+2.2%)
Western Carolina - 97.2% (—)
NC State - 27.2% (+4.2%)
Coastal Carolina - 35.9% (+12.2%)

Projected record: 6.2-3.8
Current FPI: 76 (of 91)

Six Above Us
Syracuse
Maryland
Navy
Temple
ECU
Vanderbilt

Six Below Us
Rice
Georgia State
Southern Miss
Southern Alabama
USF
Georgia Southern

Our Opponents*
Western Kentucky - 69
FIU - 85
UL Monroe - 89
Syracuse - 70
Southern Miss - 79
Virginia Tech - 16
NC State - 56
Coastal Carolina - 65

*(out of 91 teams)

Efficiencies*
Overall - 68.9 - 18
Offense - 85.2 - 8
Defense - 8 - 30.1

(*first number is efficiency, second is where we rank nationally)

Random Rankings
Average FPI of teams we beat: 69
Average FPI of teams we lost to: N/A
Projected record of teams we beat: 5.0-6.1
Projected record of teams we lost to: N/A
Average record of FBS teams we beat: 0-2
Average record of FBS teams we lost to: N/A
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User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#610864
Chance We Will Win (as of 9/27)

North Alabama - 98.1% (-0.1%)
UL Monroe - 89.0% (+3.5%)
Syracuse - 30.5% (-9.7%)
Southern Miss - 70.9% (+11.2%)
Virginia Tech - 7.0% (-1.4%)
Western Carolina - 97.8% (+0.6%)
NC State - 27.6% (+0.4%)
Coastal Carolina - 33.4% (-2.5%)

Projected record: 6.5-3.5
Current FPI: 79* (-3)

Six Above Us
Louisiana Tech
Temple
East Carolina
Georgia Southern
Rice
Georgia State

Six Below Us
South Florida
Charlotte
Kansas
Texas State
FIU
South Alabama

Our Opponents*
Western Kentucky - 69 (--)
FIU - 84 (+1)
UL Monroe - 90 (-1)
Syracuse - 66 (+4)
Southern Miss - 86 (-7)
Virginia Tech - 14 (+2)
NC State - 61 (-5)
Coastal Carolina - 64 (+1)

*(out of 91 teams)

Efficiencies^
Overall - 48.71 - 41
Offense - 74.46 - 16
Defense - 21.86 - 68

(^first number is efficiency, second is where we rank nationally)

Random Rankings
Average FPI of teams we beat: 76.5
Average FPI of teams we lost to: N/A
Projected record of teams we beat: 3.95 - 5.6
Projected record of teams we lost to: N/A
Average record of FBS teams we beat: 0-1.5
Average record of FBS teams we lost to: N/A
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#610866
Looking at the numbers, the narrative Coach Freeze has been pushing about this being such a tough schedule seems to be false. Sure, we've got three ACC teams on the schedule, but we only play one top 60 opponent as of right now.

We are currently ranked 79 in the FPI (out of 91 teams) and three of our opponents are worse than us.

Six wins is our absolute basement at this point. Anything less than that will be a big time disappointment.
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By jinxy
Registration Days Posts
#610889
He said its the toughest schedule lu has ever played and its still true. Not enough games for rankings to matter. Only teams that we know stink are southern miss and ulm.
By ballcoach15
Registration Days Posts
#610914
Those are mostly useless numbers dreamed up by ESPN by someone who had nothing else to do. Reminds me of OPS and WAR in baseball. And remember, upsets happen every week. I'm sure ESPN had Oklahoma beating Kansas State Saturday.
I think we beat everyone on the schedule with possible exception of Virginia Tech.
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By TH Spangler
Registration Days Posts
#610917
ballcoach15 wrote: September 28th, 2020, 8:17 am Those are mostly useless numbers dreamed up by ESPN by someone who had nothing else to do. Reminds me of OPS and WAR in baseball. And remember, upsets happen every week. I'm sure ESPN had Oklahoma beating Kansas State Saturday.
I think we beat everyone on the schedule with possible exception of Virginia Tech.
Not likely but a possibility. If so, can you imagine who we would be bowling against. :shock:
User avatar
By flameshaw
Registration Days Posts
#610921
I agree they are useless numbers for the most part. I have a family member who is a scout for a pro sports team. He can go on and on about the numbers and the many, many times they have failed. Are they somewhat beneficial statistically? To some degree. But they cannot measure the intangibles, the heart of a player, the attitude, the happiness of the player in his current geography, managerial style, and a million other things.
I disagree with the fact that we can beat anyone on our schedule with the exception of VT. We should be ecstatic if we luck up and win one game against an ACC foe. That is not a knock against anyone. We are just too young and new to FBS. Will we get there soon, if HF stays and continues to bring in great recruits? Absolutely. I look forward to that day. It is an exciting time to be a Flame.
User avatar
By LUOrange
Posts
#610924
Our schedule is tough considering that we have 3 ACC teams on it. This time last year, it had 4. The game and schedule will remain tough most of the time when we have P5's on it. Last year's Rutgers game is a prime example of that especially when your remember that we were favored going into it. Talent level is the prime difference right now, and while I think we could win a couple of our ACC games, it won't happen if our D and Special Teams doesn't tighten up.
Last edited by LUOrange on September 28th, 2020, 12:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
By ballcoach15
Registration Days Posts
#610927
Some years back, I was scouting a basketball game. I happened to be sitting near an ACC Official. When starting lineups were introduced, one team looked far superior and even older than the other. I remarked, "this looks like a mismatch". He said, "when they tip it up, it's 5 on 5". Same for football at kick-off, it's 11 on 11. Most college games are probably 50-50, when odds makers and ESPN are "thrown out".

Sidebar: Saturday at kickoff, it looked like 11 on 1, on the KO coverage.
User avatar
By BlueBlood
Posts
#611077
Jonathan Carone wrote: September 27th, 2020, 2:22 pm
Current FPI: 79* (-3)

Our Opponents*
Western Kentucky - 69 (--)
FIU - 84 (+1)
UL Monroe - 90 (-1)
Syracuse - 66 (+4)
Southern Miss - 86 (-7)
Virginia Tech - 14 (+2)
NC State - 61 (-5)
Coastal Carolina - 64 (+1)

*(out of 91 teams)
Is there an obvious explanation that I'm missing for why Western Kentucky is 10 spots ahead of LU?
User avatar
By Ill flame
Posts
#611082
BlueBlood wrote: October 1st, 2020, 4:59 pm
Jonathan Carone wrote: September 27th, 2020, 2:22 pm
Current FPI: 79* (-3)

Our Opponents*
Western Kentucky - 69 (--)
FIU - 84 (+1)
UL Monroe - 90 (-1)
Syracuse - 66 (+4)
Southern Miss - 86 (-7)
Virginia Tech - 14 (+2)
NC State - 61 (-5)
Coastal Carolina - 64 (+1)

*(out of 91 teams)
Is there an obvious explanation that I'm missing for why Western Kentucky is 10 spots ahead of LU?
I wouldn't put much stock into fpi until we're at least halfway through the season. A 2 game sample size isn't nearly enough to give us a decent idea where we are. Especially with so many games getting postponed/cancelled.
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By BlueBlood
Posts
#611087
Funny enough, it was actually the small sample size that left me confused (regarding LU and WKU, not overall). I was thinking that if both teams only played two games that a head to head result would have even more value than it normally would.
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#611298
Chance We Will Win (as of 10/4)

UL Monroe - 84.5% (-4.5%)
Syracuse - 25.8% (-4.7%)
Southern Miss - 62.9% (-8.0%)
Virginia Tech - 5.6% (-1.4%)
Western Carolina - 972% (-0.6%)
NC State - 17.7% (-9.9%)
Coastal Carolina - 22.0% (-11.4%)

Projected record: 6.2-3.8
Current FPI: 102* (-23)

Six Above Us
Georgia Southern
Navy
Charlotte
East Carolina
South Florida
Hawai'i

Six Below Us
UNLV
Texas State
New Mexico
South Alabama
Southern Miss
Florida International

Our Opponents*
Western Kentucky - 90 (-21)
FIU - 108 (-24)
UL Monroe - 113 (-23)
Syracuse - 81 (-15)
Southern Miss - 107 (-21)
Virginia Tech - 17 (-3)
NC State - 65 (-4)
Coastal Carolina - 70 (-6)

*(out of 114 teams)

Efficiencies^
Overall - 38.53 - 55 (-14)
Offense - 60.37 - 25 (-9)
Defense - 25.41 - 66 (+2)

(^first number is efficiency, second is where we rank nationally)

Random Rankings
Average FPI of teams we beat: 99
Average FPI of teams we lost to: N/A
Projected record of teams we beat: 3.85 - 5.7
Projected record of teams we lost to: N/A
Average record of FBS teams we beat: .5-1.5
Average record of FBS teams we lost to: N/A
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#611840
Chance We Will Win (as of 10/11)

Syracuse - 34.4% (+8.6%)
Southern Miss - 68.9% (+6.0%)
Virginia Tech - 7.9% (+1.9%)
Western Carolina - 97.6% (+0.4%)
NC State - 16.8% (-0.9%)
Coastal Carolina - 25.1% (+3.1%)

Projected record: 6.5-3.5
Current FPI: 102* (+13)

Six Above Us
Fresno State
Rice
Northern Illinois
Utah State
San Jose State
Toledo

Six Below Us
Ball State
Western Kentucky
Georgia Southern
Navy
Louisiana Tech
Kent State

Our Opponents*
Western Kentucky - 104 (-14)
FIU - 120 (-12)
UL Monroe - 126 (-23)
Syracuse - 87 (-6)
Southern Miss - 118 (-11)
Virginia Tech - 18 (-1)
NC State - 58 (+7)
Coastal Carolina - 67 (+3)

*(out of 127 teams)

Efficiencies^
Overall - 43.04 - 56 (-1)
Offense - 49.31 - 37 (-12)
Defense - 41.53 - 52 (+14)

(^first number is efficiency, second is where we rank nationally)

Random Rankings
Average FPI of teams we beat: 117
Average FPI of teams we lost to: N/A
Projected record of teams we beat: 2.2 - 8.1
Projected record of teams we lost to: N/A
Average record of FBS teams we beat: .3-3.3
Average record of FBS teams we lost to: N/A
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#611846
aredd33 wrote: October 11th, 2020, 6:38 pm Thanks for doing this every week. Love this thread.
Helps me put things in perspective and better understand the full picture of where we are.
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By Class of 20Something
Posts
#611869
Additional perspective.

Eliminating teams that still haven't played a snap of football.

76 teams are left. Liberty's FPI is 60 of the remaining 76.

Syracuse is 56 of the remaining.
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User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#611871
Yeah them adding teams each week has made it hard to keep track. Our FPI ranking was the exact same as last week but they added in 13 teams so technically we went up 13. We probably won't have a solid look at where we stand for another month.
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