Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

User avatar
By LUOrange
Posts
#613174
As of right now, we'd have to really ramp up our schedule to be considered for the playoffs, which isn't happening anytime soon. For this year only, I think someone on the board said that if we went 11-0 we'd be a strong candidate for a NY6 bowl, but again that's only this season and not the playoffs. Freeze is also on record as only wanting 2 P5's a season until he can elevate our talent. When that is, who knows. But have Khristian Zachary and Nate Hampton commit hopefully has jump started our talent elevation. Also with football, as I see it with Freeze and his recruits here, we have a strong possiblity of being in a bowl game every year through 2024. I think those kids and our schedules may help keep him here for awhile.

As far as a conference and the AAC goes. If we're lucky enough to get an AAC invite, we're in no position to say no. The AAC speaks for itself. As far as other conferences go, as I've said before, we'd have to really consider them because we have to get all of our other programs out of the ASUN. I'm grateful that they took us in, but we're not a fit for them long term. And long term, they will hurt our overall athletics programs as eventually I believe we'll flatline especially MBB. A10 or Big East and Independence would be great, but probably not happening anytime soon. I'd consider CUSA or Sun Belt with a scheduling agreement for football, or even CAA or SoCon for our olympics.
thepostman, Ill flame liked this
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#613532
Chance We Will Win (as of 11/1)

Virginia Tech - 9.4% (-1.7%)
Western Carolina - 98.4% (--%)
NC State - 26.5% (-1.8%)
UMass - 96.7% (-0.2)
Coastal Carolina - 19.1% (-9.6%)

Projected record: 8.5 - 2.5
Current FPI: 85* (-1)

Six Above Us
Nevada
Florida State
Central Michigan
Ohio
Air Force
Troy

Six Below Us
Georgia Tech
San Jose State
Western Michigan
Miami (OH)
Georgia Southern
East Carolina

Our Opponents*
Western Kentucky - 109 (-1)
FIU - 121 (--)
UL Monroe - 126 (--)
Syracuse - 100 (-2)
Southern Miss - 119 (-2)
Virginia Tech - 16 (+3)
NC State - 60 (+1)
UMass - 127 (--)
Coastal Carolina - 47 (+15)

*(out of 127 teams)

Efficiencies^
Overall - 51.92 - 54 (-2)
Offense - 67.05 - 24 (-1)
Defense - 40.75 - 72 (-2)

(^first number is efficiency, second is where we rank nationally)

Random Rankings
Average FPI of teams we beat: 115 (--)
Average FPI of teams we lost to: N/A
Projected record of teams we beat: 2.04 - 8.14
Projected record of teams we lost to: N/A
Average record of FBS teams we beat: 0.8-5.1
Average record of FBS teams we lost to: N/A
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#614452
Kricket wrote: November 8th, 2020, 11:23 am I get why the FPI computers don't have us top 25. But 82? There's quite a few teams ahead of us that I think we'd be favored against on a neutral field. Not sure how much stock should go into the FPI at this point.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi
That’s the difference in analytics and human perception. Analytics can show you some things that are good to pay attention to, but they don’t show the entire picture. Still fun to track.
Kricket, thepostman liked this
User avatar
By Kricket
Registration Days Posts
#614455
Oh, I'm not saying it's not fun to track. I'm just shocked that we're still in the 80s based on their projection. I didn't mean for it to deter you from your posts. I appreciate the FPI being tracked in this thread.
Jonathan Carone liked this
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#614457
I would bet if we beat Coastal and/or State and play the other close we will get up in the 60s. We just played the absolute bottom of FBS until now.
User avatar
By Kricket
Registration Days Posts
#614468
Just for kicks, I used the projections from the beginning of the season to determine the probability of ending up undefeated at this point in the season.

We had a 0.12058% of being here. That's about a 1 in a 1,000 chance we'd end up undefeated thus far. That just shows how fortunate we are to be having a season like this.
Jonathan Carone, jmclaughlin, LU 57 and 1 others liked this
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#614511
Chance We Will Win (as of 11/8)

Western Carolina - 98.7% (+0.3%)
NC State - 31.3% (+4.8%)
UMass - 97.3% (+0.6)
Coastal Carolina - 23.9% (+4.8%)

Projected record: 9.5 - 1.5
Current FPI: 82* (-3)

Six Above Us
Maryland
Oregon State
Nevada
Florida Atlantic
San Jose State
Central Michigan

Six Below Us
Ohio
Michigan State
Florida State
Toledo
Illinois
Troy

Our Opponents*
Western Kentucky - 106 (+3)
FIU - 120 (+1)
UL Monroe - 124 (+2)
Syracuse - 96 (+4)
Southern Miss - 119 (-2)
Virginia Tech - 22 (-6)
NC State - 61 (-1)
UMass - 127 (--)
Coastal Carolina - 48 (-1)

*(out of 127 teams)

Efficiencies^
Overall - 57.45 - 46 (+6)
Offense - 72.11 - 21 (+3)
Defense - 39.21 - 82 (-10)

(^first number is efficiency, second is where we rank nationally)

Random Rankings
Average FPI of teams we beat: 98 (+17)
Average FPI of teams we lost to: N/A
Projected record of teams we beat: 2.78 - 8.06
Projected record of teams we lost to: N/A
Average record of FBS teams we beat: 1.5-5.3
Average record of FBS teams we lost to: N/A
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#614513
The average Sun Belt school is 88. We are above that at 82. Only three Sun Belt schools are ahead of us (App State - 39, Coastal - 48, Louisiana - 57).

The average CUSA school is 100. We are above that at 82. Only three CUSA schools are ahead of us (Marshall - 33, UAB - 71, FAU - 79).

The average AAC school is 64. We are below that at 82. Only three AAC schools are behind us (East Carolina - 97, South Florida - 110, Temple - 113). The only other AAC schools within 20 spots of us are Memphis (68) and Tulane (66).

If the magic FPI number is 0.0, we are 11 spots away from that. Notable teams between us are UAB, Army, Duke, Maryland, and FAU.
User avatar
By Ill flame
Posts
#614517
FPI by year, ranking in parentheses

2018: -14.8 (113)
2019: -8.4 (97)
2020: -3.0 (82)

It's incredible the type of trajectory this program is on right now.
Jonathan Carone liked this
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#614518
I think - even if we lose to NC State and Coastal - we'll end up in the 75 range as long as those games are close. We'll piggy back off those teams being higher than us.
User avatar
By Ill flame
Posts
#616717
After that UMASS blowout we moved up to 79th overall and a score of -2.0

Unless we blowout CCU and our bowl game it doesn't look like we'll make it to 0 this season. It's still a night and day difference from our last two seasons. I'm excited to see how next season will turn out.
User avatar
By Ill flame
Posts
#619320
Our FPI ranking after this last game is 75th with a score of -1.2. Our F+ ranking which is similar to FPI but is historically more accurate is 49th place.

Also a fun fact, our SOS according to FPI is 95th place which was significantly better than washington's 110th ranked schedule and essentially tied with colorado (93).
Jonathan Carone, LU 57 liked this
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