Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

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By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#590348
It's the slow season at work, so I decided to take a look at the stats from our football season. I'm presenting these with no commentary in this post and then we can discuss it in the replies.

Record of teams we beat
12-36 – average 3-9
One win over a team with a winning record

Record of teams we lost to
33-29 – average 6.6-5.8

FPI
Ranked: 100
Strength of Record: 89
Adjusted Win-Loss: 3.2 - 8.8

FPI Efficiencies
Offense - 49
Defense - 107
Special Teams - 96
Overall - 92

Sagarin
Ranked 119
Scheduled ranked 132

NCAA Rankings
3rd Down Conversion - 46
3rd Down Defense - 105
4th Down Conversion - 120
4th Down Defense - 43
Fumbles Lost - 63
Fumbles Recovered - 85
Rushing Defense - 100
Rushing Offense - 73
Passing Offense - 21
Passing Defense - 73
Scoring Offense - 31
Scoring Defense - 77
Total Defense - 88
Total Offense - 34
26th most penalties per game

Against FBS Opponents
Six teams scored more against us than their yearly average.
We scored more against six teams than their yearly average.
We held six teams to less yards than their yearly average.
We gained more yards against five teams than their yearly average.
User avatar
By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#590360
Or ....
Who of significance has LU beaten?
User avatar
By prototype
Registration Days Posts
#590365
Our Offense was FBS ready, outside our Offensive line.

Our defense is still FCS.

We ended up having a pretty easy schedule, FBS wise.

I think our success depends on recruits on both lines. We don't get bigger, we don't get better. Losing Buckshot and AGG will hurt next year. I'm sure Willis will be decent, but he's a different type of QB and he will need a line to follow to be effective.
User avatar
By FlamesHighontheTide
Registration Days Posts
#590369
For perspective from this year to last year:

2018 - 119th is points per game allowed

2019 - 77th in points per game allowed

2018 - 124th in yards allowed per game

2019 - 88th in yards allowed per game

2018 - 37 points per game allowed

2019 - 29 points per game allowed

As bad as we were on defense last year, this years defense as you can see was significantly better. Imagine if we make a similar jump next year.
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#590372
ballcoach15 wrote: December 10th, 2019, 1:11 pm With some breaks, we could have won 10 games
But that didn’t happen. So it doesn’t really answer the question
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#590375
I didn’t realize we were as penalized as we’ve been.

Our defense took a huge jump this year. As we get some depth, I’m excited to see where that side goes.
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#590378
Jonathan Carone wrote: December 10th, 2019, 2:40 pm
Purple Haize wrote: December 10th, 2019, 1:05 pm Or ....
Who of significance has LU beaten?
That part stuck out to me.
They had 4 chances for a signature win. Went 0-4
Syracuse
Louisiana
Rutgers
BYU
By ballcoach15
Registration Days Posts
#590380
Add UVA. If Buckshot doesn't throw that interception I think outcome may have been different
User avatar
By Have_a_Gansett_2011
Posts
#590381
I think all the numbers bear out we aren’t very good. Obviously, if we win that BYU game, I think it changes the matchup numbers significantly. What I’m thankful for is the scheduling. It’s been very shrewd these first 2 years. Looking ahead, we’d be pretty fortunate to go 7-5 again next year. We have I believe, a much tougher schedule than this season. FIU, ULM, and WKU are not walk-overs. Those are just the maybe winnable games, not including VT, SoMiss, NCSt.

I’m very excited to see Malik Willis in HCHF’s system with some of these new big guys up front. The seniors we lose on both sides will need to be replaced with HF recruits that are Fr/So, so we’ll need to make up the inexperience and lack of discipline with talent and athleticism.

It’s an exciting time, and I’m glad we have the coaches we have. Symons clearly had a positive impact, and Austin coached up Buckshot beautifully. Now in year 2 the system isn’t new and the book can get a lot bigger
User avatar
By Class of 20Something
Posts
#590384
Purple Haize wrote: December 10th, 2019, 2:54 pm
Jonathan Carone wrote: December 10th, 2019, 2:40 pm
Purple Haize wrote: December 10th, 2019, 1:05 pm Or ....
Who of significance has LU beaten?
That part stuck out to me.
They had 4 chances for a signature win. Went 0-4
Syracuse
Louisiana
Rutgers
BYU
We also only went 1-3 against bowl eligible teams.

I will say, we cleaned house with UMass, NMSU, and both FCS. We never truly lost a game we had no business losing. I'm crazy enough to say that Freeze missing half of TC and coaching from the booth for Syracuse and ULL were significant factors. Buckshot threw exactly two picks with HCHF on the sideline. And those were against a Top 25 team in weather. With 150 yards lost on the season from sacks a decent OL may have been the difference in a few games
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#590388
Have_a_Gansett_2011 wrote: December 10th, 2019, 3:36 pm I think all the numbers bear out we aren’t very good.
I think the way I'd describe it is squarely mediocre. We aren't really that good, but we're also not bad. And for first year in FBS with a new coach, I'll take squarely mediocre and bowl eligible.

You're 100% right it gets harder from here.
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#590389
Class of 20Something wrote: December 10th, 2019, 3:43 pmI'm crazy enough to say that Freeze missing half of TC and coaching from the booth for Syracuse and ULL were significant factors. Buckshot threw exactly two picks with HCHF on the sideline. And those were against a Top 25 team in weather. With 150 yards lost on the season from sacks a decent OL may have been the difference in a few games
I don't know that we would've won any of the games we lost had we gotten those 5-6 weeks of Freeze coaching from the field, but I think it's absolutely safe to say Syrcause and ULL would've been much closer.
User avatar
By chris leedlelee
Posts
#590391
I think this bowl game will be a very good benchmark to see where we are as a team. Georgia Southern is the only team to beat Appalachian State this year, and this is with App State playing North Carolina and South Carolina. They definitely represent the upper tier of the Sun Belt. If the U of Louisiana game was indeed an aberration, then we should put up a good game vs Georgia Southern.
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By thepostman
Registration Days Posts
#590400
The numbers you posted, Jon, indicate we still have a long long ways to go. The good thing is we improved in almost all areas compared to last year. That is really all I am looking for. We are going to a bowl game that we have at least a shot at winning which is awesome. We need to continue to build on this foundation and improving. I think with the talent we have coming in and the fact that HF will be around for at least a couple more years, we will continue to improve. We have done a good job scheduling a combination of challenging opponents and winnable games. I feel really good about where we are heading but we certainly still have a long, long ways to go which is what I see when I look at these numbers.

Great info Jon.
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By BJWilliams
Registration Days Posts
#590457
On a scale of 1-10, 1 being worst team in FBS and 10 being Boise State to the Fiesta Bowl level, we are I would say about a 3 at this point. We have a lot of work to do to get to a point where we can be a significant player as a G5, even as an independent, but seeing what we did this year does give me hope as we start building depth and getting more FBS level talent and cycling out the FCS level talent that has taken us these first two seasons. If we can keep it to less than two possessions against GaSou, I will be quite happy even in a loss.
User avatar
By FlamesHighontheTide
Registration Days Posts
#590459
Something I have always appreciated about this board is the willingness to share what we really feel, whether head in the clouds or the realist. I have been an optimist my whole life and I won't stop now, yet when it comes to sports it is wise to have a realist bend to you or you'll be let down more than you would like to admit. The Mike Shula and Dennis Francione years at Bama helped me with this and honestly the Gill era here helped as well.

With that said, our schedule is tougher next year to a point. UVA is top 25 and we get a top 25 Va Tech(more than likely), we get Syracuse again and then we get a team better than Rutgers but I would say even with BYU if not a little weaker than BYU in NC State. We can thank Mack Brown for that as he has whipped up on NC State in recruiting since he returned.

We get 3 G5 bowl teams in W. Kentucky(8-4), FIU(6-6) who will likely lose Butch Davis according to reports and Southern Miss(7-5).

ULM, Western Kentucky and FIU both lose their senior qb's and 2 of those 3 were 3 year starters. None of these 3 have a Malik Willis either as I know we are losing our 4 year starter at QB. Trust me, you won't see a drop off like each of these teams will.

7-5 next year would still be a good record and further show the progress of our program. 7-5 might not seem like progress but it is when you realize NM State(2-10) twice and NM(2-10) are off the schedule which were 3 of our 7 wins this year.

Here is how I see it:

Guaranteed wins: NC A&T, Western Carolina, UCONN, UMASS, Bowling Green, ULM & FIU

Winnable or Toss-ups: Western Kentucky, Southern Miss & N.C. State

Likely losses: Va Tech & Syracuse

By my opinion, we would sit 7-5 IF we lost all toss ups and the two likely losses.

However, the optimist in me believes due to the dual-threat capability of our new QB will get us to 8 wins and if things bounce are way in recruiting and transfers 9 wins is not absurd.
User avatar
By sstaedtler
Posts
#590465
Jonathan Carone wrote: December 10th, 2019, 2:41 pm I didn’t realize we were as penalized as we’ve been.

Our defense took a huge jump this year. As we get some depth, I’m excited to see where that side goes.
The reality is, in 8 possessions vs. Rutgers, we scored 4 TD and 2 FG. I'm not counting the fumbled kickoff where we did not have our regular kick returner. The offense did enough vs. BYU and Virginia. The problem is, our defense is at an FCS level, where offense is FBS. The 2 biggest problems are linebacker and our smallish D line. This is why I think Southern Georgia is a tough opponent, especially with Tillman out.
Last edited by sstaedtler on December 11th, 2019, 8:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
By sstaedtler
Posts
#590466
FlamesHighontheTide wrote: December 10th, 2019, 11:57 pm Something I have always appreciated about this board is the willingness to share what we really feel, whether head in the clouds or the realist. I have been an optimist my whole life and I won't stop now, yet when it comes to sports it is wise to have a realist bend to you or you'll be let down more than you would like to admit. The Mike Shula and Dennis Francione years at Bama helped me with this and honestly the Gill era here helped as well.

With that said, our schedule is tougher next year to a point. UVA is top 25 and we get a top 25 Va Tech(more than likely), we get Syracuse again and then we get a team better than Rutgers but I would say even with BYU if not a little weaker than BYU in NC State. We can thank Mack Brown for that as he has whipped up on NC State in recruiting since he returned.

We get 3 G5 bowl teams in W. Kentucky(8-4), FIU(6-6) who will likely lose Butch Davis according to reports and Southern Miss(7-5).

ULM, Western Kentucky and FIU both lose their senior qb's and 2 of those 3 were 3 year starters. None of these 3 have a Malik Willis either as I know we are losing our 4 year starter at QB. Trust me, you won't see a drop off like each of these teams will.

7-5 next year would still be a good record and further show the progress of our program. 7-5 might not seem like progress but it is when you realize NM State(2-10) twice and NM(2-10) are off the schedule which were 3 of our 7 wins this year.

Here is how I see it:

Guaranteed wins: NC A&T, Western Carolina, UCONN, UMASS, Bowling Green, ULM & FIU

Winnable or Toss-ups: Western Kentucky, Southern Miss & N.C. State

Likely losses: Va Tech & Syracuse

By my opinion, we would sit 7-5 IF we lost all toss ups and the two likely losses.

However, the optimist in me believes due to the dual-threat capability of our new QB will get us to 8 wins and if things bounce are way in recruiting and transfers 9 wins is not absurd.

I mostly agree with this. I see the Syracuse game as winnable. They are not getting a new QB and are losing some players. I see it almost as winnable as the NC State game. I see Western Kentucky and Southern Miss as very tough games where we will be underdogs. I'd put ULM in a toss-up category.
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By Cider Jim
Registration Days Posts
#590469
I get that we are not Power5 ready yet, but who expected that in our first full year of FBS? With HF's recruiting and coaching, we will get there soon. I'm just glad that this year's record is better than last year's, and that we are going to a BOWL GAME in a small stadium in Orlando. Thank you, IM and HF. :clapping
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#590474
Cider Jim wrote: December 11th, 2019, 7:58 am I get that we are not Power5 ready yet, but who expected that in our first full year of FBS? With HF's recruiting and coaching, we will get there soon. I'm just glad that this year's record is better than last year's, and that we are going to a BOWL GAME in a small stadium in Orlando. Thank you, IM and HF. :clapping
I don’t think anyone expected us to be P5 level. But it’s important to know where you are so you know what’s needed to get to where you want to be.
By ATrain
Registration Days Posts
#590475
Purple Haize wrote: December 10th, 2019, 2:54 pm
Jonathan Carone wrote: December 10th, 2019, 2:40 pm
Purple Haize wrote: December 10th, 2019, 1:05 pm Or ....
Who of significance has LU beaten?
That part stuck out to me.
They had 4 chances for a signature win. Went 0-4
Syracuse
Louisiana
Rutgers
BYU
I wouldn't add Louisiana in there, they're not LSU.

I would argue we have on more chance, against Georgia Southern, not because of the opponent but more so because it would be a win in a bowl game.
User avatar
By jinxy
Registration Days Posts
#590477
This thread seems silly to me. Considering where we are in the transition we are about as good as we possibly could be which is how i would measure this ?. We were a slightly better than 500 fcs program under gill and barber. With mccaw freeze at helm and moving to fbs weve maintained that same winning percentage against lower level fbs comp. how much better could we be right now considering where we were???

Weve had a nice signature win each year (troy and buffallo) and we smashed an in state foe who has been up for 5 years and then won at a very high clip against the bottom 10 and won all our fcs games.

If anybody thought wed be much better then your expectations were out of line. Now could we have won another game or 2 like rutgers or umass last year. Sure. Still doesn’t nst change the overall periphery.
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