[JK37]

This thread seems silly to me. Considering where we are in the transition we are about as good as we possibly could be which is how i would measure this ?. We were a slightly better than 500 fcs program under gill and barber. With mccaw freeze at helm and moving to fbs weve maintained that same winning percentage against lower level fbs comp. how much better could we be right now considering where we were???

Weve had a nice signature win each year (troy and buffallo) and we smashed an in state foe who has been up for 5 years and then won at a very high clip against the bottom 10 and won all our fcs games.

If anybody thought wed be much better then your expectations were out of line. Now could we have won another game or 2 like rutgers or umass last year. Sure. Still doesn’t nst change the overall periphery.

I think this thread is less silly and more exactly for what you are saying.

[Jonathan Carone]

I think the stats show we are where we hoped to be. It also gives a dose of reality to people who think we’re something special because we beat five terrible teams this year. Had we played a Sun Belt or CUSA schedule this year I don’t know that we’d be bowl eligible. It’s definitely possible, but not guaranteed.

[jinxy]

Who is saying were better than that? I mean maybe one off person but it seems to me the fan base as a whole gets it.

[Jonathan Carone]

I read the other threads around here and I see a lot of people who think we’re a lot further along than we are at this point. I know people are dreaming and talking of years down the road, but these stats show how far we are from NY6 level games or from independence being a proven success. Or the talk that we’re already better than the Sun Belt or CUSA. We are absolutely on the right path for those things, but we haven’t arrived.

[Class of 20Something]

This thread seems silly to me. Considering where we are in the transition we are about as good as we possibly could be which is how i would measure this ?. We were a slightly better than 500 fcs program under gill and barber. With mccaw freeze at helm and moving to fbs weve maintained that same winning percentage against lower level fbs comp. how much better could we be right now considering where we were???

Weve had a nice signature win each year (troy and buffallo) and we smashed an in state foe who has been up for 5 years and then won at a very high clip against the bottom 10 and won all our fcs games.

If anybody thought wed be much better then your expectations were out of line. Now could we have won another game or 2 like rutgers or umass last year. Sure. Still doesn’t nst change the overall periphery.

I think you're emphasizing the are in "how good are we?"

Step back. It's an early postmortem for the season. For those that don't deal with postmortem's professionally, check it out. You learn a lot.

[thepostman]

There are plenty on here who seem to think we wre better than we are. It especially comes out in game threads. I wouldn't say it is a majority but it is there.

Regardless, Jon provided some great info to give context to our season. We have improved but still have a long ways to go.

[ballcoach15]

As I reflect back on season, the only game that we actually got beat in, was Louisiana game. In other 4 losses, we beat ourselves.

I know most of the pundits and naysayers will not agree, but I am reminded of Howard Cosell, "telling it like it is".

[jinxy]

Fair enough i should have said obvious instead of silly to better articulate my thoughts. I think we may blurring the lines between performance on the field, fan support, and facilities and infracstructure. Those are 3 different animals. 2 of 3 are at or exceeding expectations. I would agree that fan support needs some work.

Ballcoach there is truth to what your saying but i think the point is we arent good enough yet to overcome a lot of mistakes against the better opponents. We have to play a really solid game like we did at byu. I would argue rutgers beat us as well with straight smash mouth old school run the ball which i was surprised at that basic of offense doing that to us.

[thepostman]

As I reflect back on season, the only game that we actually got beat in, was Louisiana game. In other 4 losses, we beat ourselves.

I know most of the pundits and naysayers will not agree, but I am reminded of Howard Cosell, "telling it like it is".

That is how fans of any team sees things. I am sure if you talk to fans of the teams we beat a good portion would say their team beat themselves. Regardless we lost the games we did and a lot of those can be explained by looking at the stats Jon provided. They explain things much more than vague fan speak.

[Jonathan Carone]

Fair enough i should have said obvious instead of silly to better articulate my thoughts. I think we may blurring the lines between performance on the field, fan support, and facilities and infracstructure. Those are 3 different animals. 2 of 3 are at or exceeding expectations. I would agree that fan support needs some work.

I think this is where our issue is. It's semantics, but I think many people are lumping success on the field as exceeding expectations. I'd place it:

Fan support: below expectations
On field: meeting expectations
Facilities/infrastructure: exceeding expectations

I think you'd agree with that, correct?

[jinxy]

Agreed. However, they all have some correllation. If we can win the bowl it will be interesting to see if that leads to increased attendance like the ncaa run appears to have done for mbb. Performance is somewhat tied to infrastructure and facilities (which includes coaching staff and ad and staff)

To me we are right on track overall and 3 years down the road will be incredible if we can keep all the trains on the track.

[thepostman]

The fact that we didn't get a sellout of the Syracuse game, which was ranked at the time, indicated to me we weren't nearly as far along with our fan support as I thought we were. I thought that game was the perfect storm for a sell out and somehow we came nearly 4,000 short of that. We are in a good place and have a solid foundation but there is plenty to improve on and that is certainly ok.

[ballcoach15]

If we had played any other ACC team, other than Syracuse. I think it would have sold out. Syracuse just doesn't move the needle in this area, or even the state of Virginia.

[thepostman]

You certainly have a lot of opinions but it was the first ever ACC and ranked team to ever play at Williams Stadium. Plenty of people expected that game to be sold out, and it should of been, but it wasn't. It just proved, to me, that we still have a long long ways to go in regards to fan support in the local area.

[ATrain]

You certainly have a lot of opinions but it was the first ever ACC and ranked team to ever play at Williams Stadium. Plenty of people expected that game to be sold out, and it should of been, but it wasn't. It just proved, to me, that we still have a long long ways to go in regards to fan support in the local area.

This right here. Syracuse even had a good amount of fans there, and we still didn't sell out. I do think Ballcoach does have a point that had we scheduled a closer P5, we'd have a sell-out; however that would be because of additional opposing fans coming to Williams Stadium rather than more of our fans attending.

[Liberty22]

You certainly have a lot of opinions but it was the first ever ACC and ranked team to ever play at Williams Stadium. Plenty of people expected that game to be sold out, and it should of been, but it wasn't. It just proved, to me, that we still have a long long ways to go in regards to fan support in the local area.

This right here. Syracuse even had a good amount of fans there, and we still didn't sell out. I do think Ballcoach does have a point that had we scheduled a closer P5, we'd have a sell-out; however that would be because of additional opposing fans coming to Williams Stadium rather than more of our fans attending.

This exactly. A sellout due to LU fans is what’s impressive. A sellout because opposing fans travel well, not so much. You lose that home field advantage when 50% are visitors.

[ballcoach15]

To get a sellout, we will have to rely on opposing fans, for at least 1 or 2 more years.

For whatever the reason we don't have fan base large enough to sell out now. Need to attract more fans
This will be done by winning and bringing P5 teams to Lynchburg.

[CCWMichael]

OMG, set the parade at Disney!

Reality, We are an entry team at this level. We earned a lower level bowl bid. For who we are; good.
compared the the rest of the NCAA we are very wet behind the ears.

Off topic: if the trend continues great things lie ahead.

[sstaedtler]

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

On the Massey College Football Index we are rated 101st out of 130 Division 1 teams. I think that is about accurate. We are close to teams such as E. Michigan, FIU, Maryland, Kansas, Troy, and Toledo.

[Liberty22]

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

On the Massey College Football Index we are rated 101st out of 130 Division 1 teams. I think that is about accurate. We are close to teams such as E. Michigan, FIU, Maryland, Kansas, Troy, and Toledo.

GA SO 63rd.

Glad to see we are better than Arkansas and Vanderbilt though

[sstaedtler]

I think Georgia Southern is about the toughest matchup we could have had. Arkansas State or Georgia State would have been less difficult.

[Jonathan Carone]

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

On the Massey College Football Index we are rated 101st out of 130 Division 1 teams. I think that is about accurate. We are close to teams such as E. Michigan, FIU, Maryland, Kansas, Troy, and Toledo.

We’re around the same in FPI.

If we’re paying Freeze the $2-2.5M we think we are, that puts his salary between 57-67 in all of FBS football. I think that’s a realistic goal for this program over the next five years.

[sstaedtler]

Next year may be tough. Out of 22 starters, we lose 12 of them, at least as listed on our depth chart. That is more than any of our opponents. Hopefully our JUCO players can step right in and play. Here is how many players other teams are losing from their starters for our opponents next year:

ULM 11
FIU 10
at Syracuse 9
So. Miss 6
Western Kentucky 6
at Bowling Green 5
at NC State 4
UMass 4
at UConn 1
at VA. Tech 1

ULM, FIU, and Syracuse are losing a lot. Va. Tech and UConn are losing virtually nothing.