[Jonathan Carone]

This was fun to keep track of last year so I thought we'd do it again.

Chance We Will Win (as of 8/27)

Syracuse - 15.5%
Louisiana - 27.7%
Buffalo - 55.4%
Hampton - 97.3%
New Mexico - 63.0%
New Mexico State - 49.6%
Maine - 78.2%
Rutgers - 24.4%
UMass - 64.9%
BYU - 5.9%
Virginia - 7.0%
New Mexico State - 72.7%

Projected record: 6-6
Current FPI: 114

[Jonathan Carone]

Quick observations:

The away game at NMSU is essentially a toss up right now.

That Rutgers percentage is higher than I expected. I will be interested to see where that moves throughout the year.

The Hampton percentage is really high. I wonder if it'll drop a little if Francois plays well.

The BYU/UVA back to back may be hard to sit through.

[FlamesHighontheTide]

Appreciate you doing this the last two years Jonathan. It is fun to keep up with. Honestly, I am a bit surprised at the under 50%(barely) win percentage with NMSU but we did lose there last year. I just thought with Freeze at the helm it would be higher. I do think we beat them both times by two scores if not more.

[alabama24]

The differences between Virginia & Syracuse is interesting to me. Any thoughts as to why UVA has the edge? Home field only or something else?

[Jonathan Carone]

My guess would be playing on the road vs at home.

As for the Freeze factor - FPI is based on numbers. Freeze wouldn’t have any impact on that in the preseason.

[Jonathan Carone]

Chance We Will Win (as of 9/1)

Louisiana - 18.9% (-8.8%)
Buffalo - 55.5% (+0.1%)
Hampton - 93.8% (-3.5%)
New Mexico - 58.4% (-4.6%)
New Mexico State - 55.1% (+5.5%)
Maine - 70.1% (-8.1%)
Rutgers - 17% (-7.4%)
UMass - 64% (-0.9%)
BYU - 6.9% (+1.0%)
Virginia - 4.1% (-2.9%)
New Mexico State - 76.9% (+4.2%)

Projected record: 7-5
Current FPI: 121 (-7)

[Class of 20Something]

Liberty dropped in FPI from 114 to 121 as well.

Having two FCS teams on our schedule is tanking our FPI. Three P5 teams should put us in the mid 60s. Instead we are at 118 in SOS.

[Jonathan Carone]

I should keep track of overall FPI throughout that year. I’ll add that in later.

[Jonathan Carone]

Looking at the current projections, I think it's more likely we give up a loss we shouldn't than steal a win.

[Class of 20Something]

Looking at the current projections, I think it's more likely we give up a loss we shouldn't than steal a win.

Both are classic Liberty. We could beat Louisiana this week and lose to UMass.

[ballcoach15]

I think we "steal a win at Mr. Jefferson's University"

[FlamesHighontheTide]

I love that we picked up percentage points to be predicted to beat NM St. even though we lost.

[Jonathan Carone]

Chance We Will Win (as of 9/8)

Buffalo - 45.2% (-10.3%)
Hampton - 94.1% (-0.3%)
New Mexico - 46.7% (-11.7%)
New Mexico State - 45.6% (-9.5%)
Maine - 61.1% (-9.0%)
Rutgers - 17.8% (+0.8%)
UMass - 71.3% (+7.3%)
BYU - 4.1% (-2.8%)
Virginia - 3.3% (-0.8%)
New Mexico State - 69.4% (-7.5%)

Projected record: 4-8
Current FPI: 120 (+1)

[rogers3]

I think we "steal a win at Mr. Jefferson's University"

[BuryYourDuke]

6-6, but not bowl eligible still seems possible.

But, so does 3-9 with a homecoming loss to Maine.

[LU 57]

6-6, but not bowl eligible still seems possible.

But, so does 3-9 with a homecoming loss to Maine.

I hope the staff can figure out a way to get to .500 at least. That second scenario would be a disaster.

[Jonathan Carone]

6-6, but not bowl eligible still seems possible.

But, so does 3-9 with a homecoming loss to Maine.

I'm not sure which would be more Typical Liberty.

[Class of 20Something]

6-6, but not bowl eligible still seems possible.

But, so does 3-9 with a homecoming loss to Maine.

I'm not sure which would be more Typical Liberty.

A bowl eligible 6-6 with a win at UVa and a loss to Maine.

[Jonathan Carone]

6-6, but not bowl eligible still seems possible.

But, so does 3-9 with a homecoming loss to Maine.

I'm not sure which would be more Typical Liberty.

A bowl eligible 6-6 with a win at UVa and a loss to Maine.

And then we don't get a bowl invite.

[ballcoach15]

Everyone should think positive, there are 10 games left. Approach every game as if it's a winnable game.
Alabama, Clemson and LSU are not on our schedule.

[Jonathan Carone]

We are fans, not players.

[FlamesHighontheTide]

Call me crazy but I think we will be sitting 5-2 going into the Rutgers game.

I still think legit shot to go 8-4 or 7-5 with this group.

[Class of 20Something]

I'm not sure which would be more Typical Liberty.

A bowl eligible 6-6 with a win at UVa and a loss to Maine.

And then we don't get a bowl invite.

[Jonathan Carone]

Chance We Will Win (as of 9/16)

Hampton - 94.4% (+0.3%)
New Mexico - 62.5% (+15.8%)
New Mexico State - 58.3% (+12.7%)
Maine - 74.3% (+13.2%)
Rutgers - 25.1% (+7.3%)
UMass - 83.4% (+12.1%)
BYU - 5.3% (+1.2%)
Virginia - 4.0% (+0.7%)
New Mexico State - 79.1% (+9.7%)

Projected record: 7-5
Current FPI: 115 (+5)

[Jonathan Carone]

Chance We Will Win (as of 9/22)

New Mexico - 71.4% (+8.9%)
New Mexico State - 64.1% (+5.8%)
Maine - 77.5% (+3.2%)
Rutgers - 37.3% (+12.2%)
UMass - 87.7% (+4.3%)
BYU - 9.9% (+4.6%)
Virginia - 7.4% (+3.4%)
New Mexico State - 82.9% (+3.8%)

Projected record: 7-5
Current FPI: 109 (+6)