[Kolzilla41]

I really think we have a much better chance to win at Rutgers than what the analytics say. I think we go 7-5 but with a win vs Rutgers and lose a game we should win.

[Jonathan Carone]

If things keep trending the way they are, it could be 50/50 by the time we get to it.

[tyndal23]

Rat Poison !!!!

[Jonathan Carone]

Chance We Will Win (as of 9/29)

New Mexico State - 65.1% (+1%)
Maine - 80.0% (+2.5%)
Rutgers - 45.8% (+7.5%)
UMass - 86.8% (-0.1%)
BYU - 10.6% (+0.7%)
Virginia - 7.9% (+0.5%)
New Mexico State - 83.5% (+0.6%)

Projected record: 7-5
Current FPI: 106 (+3)

[Jonathan Carone]

My observations for this week:

On average, our chances to win each game the rest of the season have gone up 11% per game since the beginning of the season.

If you take out UVA and BYU from that, they've gone up 14.28% per game.

If you look at the three remaining independents, they've gone up 15.9% per game.

Rutgers has made the biggest leap (+21.9%). The way things are trending, we may be the favorite for that game by the time we get to it.

[Kricket]

Thanks for posting the FPI. I find it interesting to track. One thing that could help track better is to project the record based on percentages rather than just marking it as a win if its over 50.

For example, if a team plays 10 games at a 49% chance to win you would project 0 wins. In reality the team is likely to win 4.9 or rounding up to 5.

Liberty currently sits at 6.8 wins projected, which I suspect is the first time that we are most likely to win 7 games based on the projections from FPI.

[Jonathan Carone]

Chance We Will Win (as of 10/7)

Maine - 81.2% (+1.2%)
Rutgers - 56.4% (+10.6%)
UMass - 89.5% (+2.7%)
BYU - 11.2% (+0.6%)
Virginia - 8.1% (+0.2%)
New Mexico State - 84.3% (+0.8%)

Projected record: 8-4
Current FPI: 105 (+1)

And for Kricket, here's the percentage based record: 7.3 - 4.7.

[thepostman]

I fully expect us to go 7-5 but can you imagine going 8-4???

[ballcoach15]

I am taking it a game at a time, but someone somewhere is predicting 9-3. I believe it's the same bunch that has us with a RPI of 75. Haven't had time to actually research it.

[Purple Haize]

I am taking it a game at a time, but someone somewhere is predicting 9-3. I believe it's the same bunch that has us with a RPI of 75. Haven't had time to actually research it.

If I ever get bored I’m going to start a tally sheet of comments you make about things you don’t know about

[cruzan_flame13]

I am taking it a game at a time, but someone somewhere is predicting 9-3. I believe it's the same bunch that has us with a RPI of 75. Haven't had time to actually research it.

If I ever get bored I’m going to start a tally sheet of comments you make about things you don’t know about

I have a feeling that you have already started a tally for the person who can 'coach you up'

[flameshaw]

I am taking it a game at a time, but someone somewhere is predicting 9-3. I believe it's the same bunch that has us with a RPI of 75. Haven't had time to actually research it.

9-3? Probably Lynchburg Training School.

[LUOrange]

I think 9-3 is possible, maybe not probable but possible. I think BYU and Rutgers are beatable. Obviously, all is contingent on our offense becoming more consistent especially on the road along with Maine, UMass and NMSU all being must wins.

[Purple Haize]

I am taking it a game at a time, but someone somewhere is predicting 9-3. I believe it's the same bunch that has us with a RPI of 75. Haven't had time to actually research it.

If I ever get bored I’m going to start a tally sheet of comments you make about things you don’t know about

I have a feeling that you have already started a tally for the person who can 'coach you up'

There’s one person who can coach me up. And she can do that anytime she wants!

[Jonathan Carone]

Chance We Will Win (as of 10/15)

Maine - 84.1% (+2.9%)
Rutgers - 59.1% (+2.7%)
UMass - 90.5% (+1.0%)
BYU - 11.1% (-0.1%)
Virginia - 8.1% (--%)
New Mexico State - 83.9% (-0.4%)

Projected record: 8-4
Current FPI: 109 (-4)

And for Kricket, here's the percentage based record: 7.4 - 4.6.

[Kricket]

What I find interesting is that we have a better chance of beating U Mass at U Mass than Maine at home.

Essentially, based on FPI, Maine is as good as New Mexico State, better than U Mass, and almost as good as Rutgers.

[tyndal23]

http://realtimerpi.com/college_football ... ml?Liberty

[LU 57]

http://realtimerpi.com/college_football ... ml?Liberty

Whoa. 9-3. I like that.

[FLAMEfromBAMA]

A one point win at BYU would be amazing! Winning a close game that'll have a bit of national attention would generate some solid excitement. A win no matter what would, but a last minute game winning drive or stop would even more so!

[FlamesHighontheTide]

I would be all for a last minute or so game-winning drive or game winning defensive stop especially since I will be in attendance at the BYU game.

Their win vs USC is quality and their win vs Tennessee is kind of eh due to the season that Tennessee is having.

I am hoping we are as healthy as we are right now when we fly to Provo and play BYU. Regardless of their record we could no joke be 7-2.

[tyndal23]

We are going to be a very tired team when we fly in for that one.

[tyndal23]

I would be all for a last minute or so game-winning drive or game winning defensive stop especially since I will be in attendance at the BYU game.

Their win vs USC is quality and their win vs Tennessee is kind of eh due to the season that Tennessee is having.

I am hoping we are as healthy as we are right now when we fly to Provo and play BYU. Regardless of their record we could no joke be 7-2.

Stated a month ago - sounded far fetched - now it has set up for disappointment if we aren’t 7-2 based on opponents. You are right - health is key for us to be in a position to win at BYU.

[Jonathan Carone]

Chance We Will Win (as of 10/21)

Rutgers - 62.0% (+2.9%)
UMass - 90.6% (+0.1%)
BYU - 11.2% (+0.1%)
Virginia - 6.5% (-1.6%)
New Mexico State - 83.7% (-0.2%)

Projected record: 8-4
Current FPI: 109 (--)

And for Kricket, here's the percentage based record: 7.5 - 4.5.

Not much change this week.

[Jonathan Carone]

Chance We Will Win (as of 10/27)

UMass - 90.3% (-0.3%)
BYU - 10.0% (-1.2%)
Virginia - 6.8% (+0.3%)
New Mexico State - 85.4% (+1.7%)

Projected record: 7-5
Current FPI: 112 (-3)

And for Kricket, here's the percentage based record: 6.9-5.1.

[chris leedlelee]

If you told me at the beginning of this season that we would be 7-5 and bowl eligible, I would've been happy with that result. Glad we are on that track.