A Sea Of Red

I thought it’d be fun to track where our projected chances of winning move throughout the year.

Chance We Will Win (as of 9/2)

At Army - 38.2%
Norfolk State - 98%
North Texas - 38%
At New Mexico - 45.3%
At New Mexico State - 62.5%
Troy - 65.7%
Idaho State - 94.2%
At UMass - 32.8%
At UVA - 18.7%
At Auburn - 1.5%
New Mexico State - 84%

Projected record: 6-6

Shouldn't ODU be part of our record, and wouldn't that put us at 6-6?

Cider Jim wrote:Shouldn't ODU be part of our record, and wouldn't that put us at 6-6?

I included the win in the final record but overlooked one of the upcoming games. I’ll get that fixed in the original post.

65% chance of beating Troy. I hope so, staying undefeated against the slumbelt would be awesome lol.

Liberty22 wrote:65% chance of beating Troy. I hope so, staying undefeated against the slumbelt would be awesome lol.

I think that one will be the one that changes the most. They got spanked by Boise so that’s playing heavily into it now.

We are now only a home dog vs UNT.

Prior to ODU game:

we were ranked #117 and projected to win 4.5 games
ODU 48.9%
Norfolk State - 95.8%
Idaho State - 88.7%
At UVA - 11.7%
At Auburn - 0.8%
New Mexico State - 51.1%

The other games were between 19.4% to 32.6% chance of winning.

I like our 1.5% chances against Auburn, that’s about what we had against Baylor lol! I’m calling it right now!

Liberty22 wrote:I like our 1.5% chances against Auburn, that’s about what we had against Baylor lol! I’m calling it right now!

HCTG will get a 5 year extension if we finish 6-6 and beat Auburn.

Class of 20Something wrote:

Liberty22 wrote:I like our 1.5% chances against Auburn, that’s about what we had against Baylor lol! I’m calling it right now!

HCTG will get a 5 year extension if we finish 6-6 and beat Auburn.

you know if he does that well and beats Auburn, i'm not sure i'd argue against it haha

Liberty22 wrote:

Class of 20Something wrote:

Liberty22 wrote:I like our 1.5% chances against Auburn, that’s about what we had against Baylor lol! I’m calling it right now!

HCTG will get a 5 year extension if we finish 6-6 and beat Auburn.

you know if he does that well and beats Auburn, i'm not sure i'd argue against it haha

If we can beat Auburn and still lose 6 games, I'm still against it.

Class of 20Something wrote:

Liberty22 wrote:

Class of 20Something wrote:
HCTG will get a 5 year extension if we finish 6-6 and beat Auburn.

you know if he does that well and beats Auburn, i'm not sure i'd argue against it haha

If we can beat Auburn and still lose 6 games, I'm still against it.

Would you have said the same thing in July if someone told you that we'd go 6-6 with a win against Auburn?
ps: I'm not big on HCTG myself

I've been on the fire Gill train for three seasons now. There should be no long term extensions for him until we have a season where we play at our level of talent, not the talent of whomever we play that week. Turner Gill has turned the program into tofu, especially when away from home.

Class of 20Something wrote:Turner Gill has turned the program into tofu, especially when away from home.

JMU called. They are still crying about the playoff loss to LU in Harrisonburg. Ditto for Coastal with our blocked field goal in Conway.

Let JMU cry. I put them in same boat as I do Longwood and Radford.

Chance We Will Win (as of 9/9)

Norfolk State - 96.6% (-1.4%)
North Texas - 30.6% (-7.4%)
At New Mexico - 35% (-10.3%)
At New Mexico State - 62.5% (--)
Troy - 44.6% (-21.1%)
Idaho State - 90% (-2.2%)
At UMass - 31.8% (-1%)
At UVA - 12.7% (-6%)
At Auburn - 1.4% (-0.1%)
New Mexico State - 84% (--)

Projected record: 5-7

Jonathan Carone wrote:Chance We Will Win (as of 9/9)

Norfolk State - 96.6% (-1.4%)
North Texas - 30.6% (-7.4%)
At New Mexico - 35% (-10.3%)
At New Mexico State - 62.5% (--)
Troy - 44.6% (-21.1%)
Idaho State - 9% (-2.2%)
At UMass - 31.8% (-1%)
At UVA - 12.7% (-6%)
At Auburn - 1.4% (-0.1%)
New Mexico State - 84% (--)

Projected record: 5-7

I’m assuming Idaho St is a typo and it’s supposed to be 90%?

Class of 20Something wrote:

Liberty22 wrote:I like our 1.5% chances against Auburn, that’s about what we had against Baylor lol! I’m calling it right now!

HCTG will get a 5 year extension if we finish 6-6 and beat Auburn.

Yes, he most definitely would. If we win 4 games he would deserve an extension.

Knowing TG we will lose every other game but win that one.

Don't worry, I haven't lost it. I know we won't win that game.

Yeah, I don't think we beat NMSU twice.

Liberty22 wrote:

Jonathan Carone wrote:Chance We Will Win (as of 9/9)

Norfolk State - 96.6% (-1.4%)
North Texas - 30.6% (-7.4%)
At New Mexico - 35% (-10.3%)
At New Mexico State - 62.5% (--)
Troy - 44.6% (-21.1%)
Idaho State - 9% (-2.2%)
At UMass - 31.8% (-1%)
At UVA - 12.7% (-6%)
At Auburn - 1.4% (-0.1%)
New Mexico State - 84% (--)

Projected record: 5-7

I’m assuming Idaho St is a typo and it’s supposed to be 90%?

Yep. Thanks for catching that.

Chance We Will Win (as of 9/16)

North Texas - 24.9% (-5.7%)
At New Mexico - 31.9% (-3.1%)
At New Mexico State - 65.6% (+3.1%)
Troy - 40% (-4.6%)
Idaho State - 88.6% (-1.4%)
At UMass - 43.6% (+11.8%)
At UVA - 11.2% (-1.5%)
At Auburn - 1.7% (+0.3%)
New Mexico State - 85.7% (+1.7%)
Norfolk State - 96.5% (-0.1%)

Projected record: 5-7

I'd be really pleased with a 5-7 record.

Me, too, and we might even steal a WIN from UMass or Troy to finish 6-6.

BuryYourDuke wrote:We should be doing cartwheels if we finish 5-7. I’m stiil thinking 4-8 or 3-9.

I thought 4-8 or 3-9 going into the year. I didn’t expect ODU or NMSU to be as bad as they are this year. Between the two FCS and two NMSU, I think we could get to five wins and still have no clue how good we are.