Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#556878
I thought it’d be fun to track where our projected chances of winning move throughout the year.

Chance We Will Win (as of 9/2)

At Army - 38.2%
Norfolk State - 98%
North Texas - 38%
At New Mexico - 45.3%
At New Mexico State - 62.5%
Troy - 65.7%
Idaho State - 94.2%
At UMass - 32.8%
At UVA - 18.7%
At Auburn - 1.5%
New Mexico State - 84%

Projected record: 6-6
User avatar
By Cider Jim
Registration Days Posts
#556880
Shouldn't ODU be part of our record, and wouldn't that put us at 6-6?
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#556882
Cider Jim wrote:Shouldn't ODU be part of our record, and wouldn't that put us at 6-6?
I included the win in the final record but overlooked one of the upcoming games. I’ll get that fixed in the original post.
User avatar
By Liberty22
Registration Days Posts
#556900
65% chance of beating Troy. I hope so, staying undefeated against the slumbelt would be awesome lol.
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#556906
Liberty22 wrote:65% chance of beating Troy. I hope so, staying undefeated against the slumbelt would be awesome lol.
I think that one will be the one that changes the most. They got spanked by Boise so that’s playing heavily into it now.
User avatar
By A Sea of Red
Posts Custom
#557063
Prior to ODU game:

we were ranked #117 and projected to win 4.5 games
ODU 48.9%
Norfolk State - 95.8%
Idaho State - 88.7%
At UVA - 11.7%
At Auburn - 0.8%
New Mexico State - 51.1%

The other games were between 19.4% to 32.6% chance of winning.
User avatar
By Liberty22
Registration Days Posts
#557064
I like our 1.5% chances against Auburn, that’s about what we had against Baylor lol! I’m calling it right now!
User avatar
By Class of 20Something
Posts
#557065
Liberty22 wrote:I like our 1.5% chances against Auburn, that’s about what we had against Baylor lol! I’m calling it right now!
HCTG will get a 5 year extension if we finish 6-6 and beat Auburn.
User avatar
By Liberty22
Registration Days Posts
#557076
Class of 20Something wrote:
Liberty22 wrote:I like our 1.5% chances against Auburn, that’s about what we had against Baylor lol! I’m calling it right now!
HCTG will get a 5 year extension if we finish 6-6 and beat Auburn.
:lol: you know if he does that well and beats Auburn, i'm not sure i'd argue against it haha
User avatar
By Class of 20Something
Posts
#557107
Liberty22 wrote:
Class of 20Something wrote:
Liberty22 wrote:I like our 1.5% chances against Auburn, that’s about what we had against Baylor lol! I’m calling it right now!
HCTG will get a 5 year extension if we finish 6-6 and beat Auburn.
:lol: you know if he does that well and beats Auburn, i'm not sure i'd argue against it haha
If we can beat Auburn and still lose 6 games, I'm still against it.
User avatar
By SoD BAS
Posts
#557160
Class of 20Something wrote:
Liberty22 wrote:
Class of 20Something wrote:
HCTG will get a 5 year extension if we finish 6-6 and beat Auburn.
:lol: you know if he does that well and beats Auburn, i'm not sure i'd argue against it haha
If we can beat Auburn and still lose 6 games, I'm still against it.
Would you have said the same thing in July if someone told you that we'd go 6-6 with a win against Auburn?
ps: I'm not big on HCTG myself
User avatar
By Class of 20Something
Posts
#557175
I've been on the fire Gill train for three seasons now. There should be no long term extensions for him until we have a season where we play at our level of talent, not the talent of whomever we play that week. Turner Gill has turned the program into tofu, especially when away from home.
User avatar
By Cider Jim
Registration Days Posts
#557189
Class of 20Something wrote:Turner Gill has turned the program into tofu, especially when away from home.
JMU called. They are still crying about the playoff loss to LU in Harrisonburg. Crybaby Ditto for Coastal with our blocked field goal in Conway. Crybaby
By ballcoach15
Registration Days Posts
#557207
Let JMU cry. I put them in same boat as I do Longwood and Radford.
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#558209
Chance We Will Win (as of 9/9)

Norfolk State - 96.6% (-1.4%)
North Texas - 30.6% (-7.4%)
At New Mexico - 35% (-10.3%)
At New Mexico State - 62.5% (--)
Troy - 44.6% (-21.1%)
Idaho State - 90% (-2.2%)
At UMass - 31.8% (-1%)
At UVA - 12.7% (-6%)
At Auburn - 1.4% (-0.1%)
New Mexico State - 84% (--)

Projected record: 5-7
User avatar
By Liberty22
Registration Days Posts
#558211
Jonathan Carone wrote:Chance We Will Win (as of 9/9)

Norfolk State - 96.6% (-1.4%)
North Texas - 30.6% (-7.4%)
At New Mexico - 35% (-10.3%)
At New Mexico State - 62.5% (--)
Troy - 44.6% (-21.1%)
Idaho State - 9% (-2.2%)
At UMass - 31.8% (-1%)
At UVA - 12.7% (-6%)
At Auburn - 1.4% (-0.1%)
New Mexico State - 84% (--)

Projected record: 5-7
I’m assuming Idaho St is a typo and it’s supposed to be 90%?
User avatar
By LUGrad2000
Registration Days Posts
#558212
Class of 20Something wrote:
Liberty22 wrote:I like our 1.5% chances against Auburn, that’s about what we had against Baylor lol! I’m calling it right now!
HCTG will get a 5 year extension if we finish 6-6 and beat Auburn.
Yes, he most definitely would. If we win 4 games he would deserve an extension.
User avatar
By thepostman
Registration Days Posts
#558222
Knowing TG we will lose every other game but win that one.

Don't worry, I haven't lost it. I know we won't win that game.
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#558228
Liberty22 wrote:
Jonathan Carone wrote:Chance We Will Win (as of 9/9)

Norfolk State - 96.6% (-1.4%)
North Texas - 30.6% (-7.4%)
At New Mexico - 35% (-10.3%)
At New Mexico State - 62.5% (--)
Troy - 44.6% (-21.1%)
Idaho State - 9% (-2.2%)
At UMass - 31.8% (-1%)
At UVA - 12.7% (-6%)
At Auburn - 1.4% (-0.1%)
New Mexico State - 84% (--)

Projected record: 5-7
I’m assuming Idaho St is a typo and it’s supposed to be 90%?
Yep. Thanks for catching that.
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#558543
Chance We Will Win (as of 9/16)

North Texas - 24.9% (-5.7%)
At New Mexico - 31.9% (-3.1%)
At New Mexico State - 65.6% (+3.1%)
Troy - 40% (-4.6%)
Idaho State - 88.6% (-1.4%)
At UMass - 43.6% (+11.8%)
At UVA - 11.2% (-1.5%)
At Auburn - 1.7% (+0.3%)
New Mexico State - 85.7% (+1.7%)
Norfolk State - 96.5% (-0.1%)

Projected record: 5-7
User avatar
By Cider Jim
Registration Days Posts
#558546
Me, too, and we might even steal a WIN from UMass or Troy to finish 6-6. :pray :koolaid
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#558563
BuryYourDuke wrote:We should be doing cartwheels if we finish 5-7. I’m stiil thinking 4-8 or 3-9.
I thought 4-8 or 3-9 going into the year. I didn’t expect ODU or NMSU to be as bad as they are this year. Between the two FCS and two NMSU, I think we could get to five wins and still have no clue how good we are.
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