Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

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By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#558569
Nothing will surprise me. We have the talent to beat everyone but Auburn and the coaching to lose to anyone.
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By thepostman
Registration Days Posts
#558575
Jonathan Carone wrote:Nothing will surprise me. We have the talent to beat everyone but Auburn and the coaching to lose to anyone.
You're best, most accurate post ever.
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By LUOrange
Posts
#558879
thepostman wrote:
Jonathan Carone wrote:Nothing will surprise me. We have the talent to beat everyone but Auburn and the coaching to lose to anyone.
You're best, most accurate post ever.
I concur. I thought coaching was our biggest problem against Army.
By olldflame
Registration Days Posts
#558886
LUOrange wrote:
thepostman wrote:
Jonathan Carone wrote:Nothing will surprise me. We have the talent to beat everyone but Auburn and the coaching to lose to anyone.
You're best, most accurate post ever.
I concur. I thought coaching was our biggest problem against Army.

I blame the coaches for how poorly we (always) play against the TO, but it wasn´t coaches who turned 2 successful plays into turnovers with fumbles or overthrew a wide open receiver for a sure touchdown. Plenty of blame to go around in that loss.
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By TH Spangler
Registration Days Posts
#558887
oldflame wrote: but it wasn´t coaches who turned 2 successful plays into turnovers with fumbles or overthrew a wide open receiver for a sure touchdown. Plenty of blame to go around in that loss.
Yep those were the back breakers. :(
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By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#559039
Chance We Will Win (as of 9/23)

At New Mexico - 23.7% (-8.2%)
At New Mexico State - 55.4% (-10.2%)
Troy - 29.2% (-10.8%)
Idaho State - 83.1% (-5.5%)
At UMass - 33.5% (-10.1%)
At UVA - 6.4% (-4.8%)
At Auburn - 1.2% (-0.5%)
New Mexico State - 79.6% (-6.1%)
Norfolk State - 92.5% (-3%)

Projected record: 5-7
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By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#559088
I found this interesting:

After the ODU win, our average percent chance of winning each game was 55.85%.

Currently, our average percent chance of winning each game is 44.95%.

If you take out the Troy game since it's the largest outlier, our chances have really only changed 7% per game.

So with as bad as we've played, we're really in line with what the data expected us to do.
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By R i
Registration Days Posts
#559125
Just posted in another thread, UNT wasn't about losing the game and our finishing record. We were suppose to lose by 13.5 points. It was about how we lost. The team quitting and getting blown out by G5 at home was a disaster.
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By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#559128
R i wrote:Just posted in another thread, UNT wasn't about losing the game and our finishing record. We were suppose to lose by 13.5 points. It was about how we lost. The team quitting and getting blown out by G5 at home was a disaster.
This is what I've said for three years. I'm much more concerned about how we play than I am our results.
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By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#559586
Chance We Will Win (as of 9/30)

At New Mexico State - 62% (+6.6%)
Troy - 30.6% (+1.4%)
Idaho State - 84.1% (+1%)
At UMass - 42.7% (+9.2%)
At UVA - 9% (+2.6%)
At Auburn - 2% (+.8%)
New Mexico State - 83.7% (+4.1%)
Norfolk State - 93.7% (+1.2%)

Projected record: 6-6

None of our projections have flipped based on last night's performance, but that UMass game is inching closer to 50/50.
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By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#560162
Chance We Will Win (as of 10/7)

Troy - 27.8% (-3.6%)
Idaho State - 76.9% (-7.2%)
At UMass - 40.4% (-2.3%)
At UVA - 8.9% (-.1%)
At Auburn - 2% (--)
New Mexico State - 78.4% (-5.2%)
Norfolk State - 94% (+.3%)

Projected record: 5-7

Interestingly enough, as bad as last night's loss feels, it didn't change the predictions much.
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By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#560620
Chance We Will Win (as of 10/14)

Idaho State - 79.2% (+2.3%)
At UMass - 43.6% (+3.2%)
At UVA - 9% (+0.1%)
At Auburn - 3.1% (+1.1%)
New Mexico State - 82% (+3.6%)
Norfolk State - 94.6% (+0.6%)

Projected record: 6-6
By phoenix
Registration Days Posts
#560661
Sherman on ESPN has Liberty playing Houston in the Cure Bowl on Dec. 15 .....
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By Sly Fox
Registration Days Posts
#560663
A week and a half before Christmas at Disney doesn't sound bad to me. Although I wouldn't want to subject Buck to Ed Oliver under any circumstances.
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By Liberty22
Registration Days Posts
#560688
phoenix wrote:Sherman on ESPN has Liberty playing Houston in the Cure Bowl on Dec. 15 .....
Until we lose to an FCS or NMSU at home and don’t get to 6 wins. I want to laugh but it’s gills M.O.
By Pilotguy24
Posts
#560695
Sly Fox wrote:A week and a half before Christmas at Disney doesn't sound bad to me. Although I wouldn't want to subject Buck to Ed Oliver under any circumstances.
Yeah the way our O line has been (not) protecting Buckshot, he would probably get sacked more than 5 times against Ed Oliver and the best D line we will have faced this year. However, I would definitely still go because it's LU's first bowl game and I'm within decent driving distance.
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By A Sea of Red
Posts Custom
#560732
Jonathan Carone wrote:One of the officials from the bowl was at the game yesterday.
There were actually 3 bowl reps there
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By Class of 20Something
Posts
#560754
A Sea of Red wrote:
Jonathan Carone wrote:One of the officials from the bowl was at the game yesterday.
There were actually 3 bowl reps there
I think it's safe to say we validated their trip.
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By thepostman
Registration Days Posts
#560788
So if we somehow go 7-5 who wants to pay for my trip to Orlando? Haha....but seriously my parents live down there and I would find it hard to not to make it down there.
By LUDad
Posts
#560805
How is LU really performing against expectations:

We have lost two games that we were suppose to lose. We have won three games that we were not suppose to win. We have lost one game that we were suppose to win.

If you throw out the wins and loses that went according to exceptions (the line), we are ahead of expectations: 3 wins to 1 lose.
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By FlamesHighontheTide
Registration Days Posts
#560818
interestingly, I checked my predictions of where we would be at this point and I had us at 3 wins and 4 losses going into the idaho state game(this was before Norfolk St. game being postponed). The 3 wins against ODU, NSU and NMSU. I am very pleased with the record going into Idaho St. Hypothetically if we had played NSU instead of postponing and when we win against Idaho st. we would've been 5-3 going into UMASS. Regardless of how we feel about the program overall that is a cool thought!
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By Class of 20Something
Posts
#561532
Checking S&P+ to see how our opponents are ranking
  • Auburn -17
  • North Texas - 33
  • Virginia - 45
  • Troy - 60
  • Army - 77
  • New Mexico - 94
  • UMass - 104
  • Old Dominion - 111
  • Liberty - 112
  • New Mexico State - 121
Three wins above our rank.

Liberty Offense Ranked 51/130
Liberty Defense Ranked 125/130
Liberty Special Teams Ranked 130/130

I think the rankings of the three phases compliments the sentiments of most of us on here.
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