A Sea Of Red

We start the week off at +6.5.

Will we win outright? Lose but cover the spread? Or lose by more than 6.5?

(Edit: I originally typed the line as -6.5. That's been fixed. The descriptions and poll options were correct all along. My bad!)

Jonathan Carone wrote:We start the week off at -6.5.

Will we win outright? Lose but cover the spread? Or lose by more than 6.5?

Cover

We will win or lose.

Lose by more than 6.5. If we can play decent defense we will have a chance to win. Recent history says we don't know how to play D at all. Hopefully we can turn it around with all of the newcomers.

Win outright but i would not be surprised with a field goal margin

ODU has a slew of returners this year. It's now or never for them. Next year will be a "rebuilding year". They have some big dudes on the O-line and D-line with a lot of experience. Obviously I'm pulling for LU but won't be surprised if we lose by more than 6 1/2 points.

We will win. Expectations will skyrocket and then will come crashing down the next week against Army.

I think we get a little blindsided by what FBS football will actually be and they overwhelm us a little bit. I could see us losing by 10-14.

Even ODU fans are saying LU has a 55% chance of winning this game.

Jonathan Carone wrote:I think we get a little blindsided by what FBS football will actually be and they overwhelm us a little bit. I could see us losing by 10-14.

A little context for this before I'm accused of simply being a Debbie Downer:

Of the last ten teams to transition to FBS football, it has taken those teams an average of 5.1 FBS games to get their first FBS win. If you take out Georgia State which is an obvious outlier, it takes on average 3.3 FBS games to get the first FBS win.

If you expand that back to the year 2000, you get 16 teams transitioning and an average first FBS win in the 7th game.

Four teams have picked up their first FBS win in their first FBS game. Two of those four teams won against another teams playing in their first FBS game. Of the two that won their first FBS game, only one did it against a team that was coming off a year with more than one FBS win.

In other words, us beating ODU would be the biggest first-game FBS win since 2012 and the second biggest first-game FBS win since 2000.

I want to be fair and make sure we're comparing apples to apples, so I went back and researched this further.

Of the 16 teams who transitioned before us, nine played their first FBS game vs a G5 while seven played their first FBS game vs a P5. Of the teams that played a G5 in their first game, the record was 4-5. So that trends better for us than the other numbers but still not great.

To go one step further, I looked at each team's first home game vs a G5 opponent. The overall record was 4-12 in that game.

Needless to say, a win on Saturday would be really, really impressive.

Jonathan Carone wrote:I want to be fair and make sure we're comparing apples to apples, so I went back and researched this further.

Of the 16 teams who transitioned before us, nine played their first FBS game vs a G5 while seven played their first FBS game vs a P5. Of the teams that played a G5 in their first game, the record was 4-5. So that trends better for us than the other numbers but still not great.

To go one step further, I looked at each team's first home game vs a G5 opponent. The overall record was 4-12 in that game.

Needless to say, a win on Saturday would be really, really impressive.

FCS teams beating FBS teams first game of the year?
Vegas has these numbers and more and gives LU the edge

Oops! I just realized I put us as -6.5 in the text of the original post. We were actually +6.5. The poll options were correct but the original post had that put in wrong. I've fixed it now.

Also - ESPN has us at +7 now.

Purple Haize wrote:FCS teams beating FBS teams first game of the year?

I think we had a 1-2% chance to win that Baylor game last year.

So we can definitely beat the odds.

I just don't think it'll happen.

I actually think we are going to see us go full Big XII Saturday. Big offense no defense. 2 lead changes in the 4th quarter. Liberty wins 41-38

I think we win by atleast 10. The defense that has been put together this year will be night and day to last year's cellar dweller. Get ready to see a much improved and hungry defense!

The defense is going to surprise a lot of you this year!

We win this one outright. Next week makes me VERY nervous.

Keys to game will be offensive play calling and defense. We must open up play book, and not run ball off tackle on first and second down.

We should win this game.

Cider Jim wrote:Even ODU fans are saying LU has a 55% chance of winning this game.

No, they are pointing to an article which gives us a 55% chance of winning. The ODU fans claim that playing Liberty helps give them a "nearly automatic bowl bid."

Jonathan Carone wrote:

Purple Haize wrote:FCS teams beating FBS teams first game of the year?

I think we had a 1-2% chance to win that Baylor game last year.

So we can definitely beat the odds.

I just don't think it'll happen.

That’s fair

ballcoach15 wrote:Keys to game will be offensive play calling and defense. We must open up play book, and not run ball off tackle on first and second down.

We should win this game.

So if LU scores more points (offense) and keeps ODU from scoring more points than LU (defense) LU will win.

Sly Fox wrote:We win this one outright. Next week makes me VERY nervous.

Army doesn´t make me nervous because my expectations are realistic (as in LOW). It´s pretty much a total concensus that the matchup of their powerhouse option running game against our defense with their horrible track record against that type of offense makes it almost a sure loss and a potential blowout. A win would be epic, and playing them tough a ¨moral victory¨. The only game on the schedule we are less likely to win IMHO is Auburn.

Jonathan Carone wrote:I want to be fair and make sure we're comparing apples to apples, so I went back and researched this further.

Of the 16 teams who transitioned before us, nine played their first FBS game vs a G5 while seven played their first FBS game vs a P5. Of the teams that played a G5 in their first game, the record was 4-5. So that trends better for us than the other numbers but still not great.

To go one step further, I looked at each team's first home game vs a G5 opponent. The overall record was 4-12 in that game.

Needless to say, a win on Saturday would be really, really impressive.

I agree. I want us to be good right away, but I think little truly understand what this move means and how much more talented this level is compared to where we have been. We have had NO time to improve our roster to that level yet. In the past - we would have been happy to beat one FBS program every year - I'm not expecting us to run through this schedule, but actually take some pretty good beatings this year. We will need a different level of recruit at all positions, not just a few - to compete.

I hope we lose by less than 21 in this one.

prototype wrote:I hope we lose by less than 21 in this one.

I'm expecting 10. Wouldn't be surprised by 20. Would be impressed by less than 7.