Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

Win, cover, or lose?

Win outright
20
61%
Lose by less than 6.5
7
21%
Lose by more than 6.5
6
18%
By Chippy
Registration Days Posts
#556077
prototype wrote:
Jonathan Carone wrote:I want to be fair and make sure we're comparing apples to apples, so I went back and researched this further.

Of the 16 teams who transitioned before us, nine played their first FBS game vs a G5 while seven played their first FBS game vs a P5. Of the teams that played a G5 in their first game, the record was 4-5. So that trends better for us than the other numbers but still not great.

To go one step further, I looked at each team's first home game vs a G5 opponent. The overall record was 4-12 in that game.

Needless to say, a win on Saturday would be really, really impressive.
I agree. I want us to be good right away, but I think little truly understand what this move means and how much more talented this level is compared to where we have been. We have had NO time to improve our roster to that level yet. In the past - we would have been happy to beat one FBS program every year - I'm not expecting us to run through this schedule, but actually take some pretty good beatings this year. We will need a different level of recruit at all positions, not just a few - to compete.

I hope we lose by less than 21 in this one.
A realist telling it like it is. Like I said in another post,Coastal was 3-9 last year with an FCS win against Idaho (13-7). They had a dominant run in FCS, talent at most every position, and a verygood coach and still didn't win the number of games we are expecting to win. This coming from me who likes kool aid, kick-a-poo joy juice and even a little nectar of the gods.
By LUDad
Posts
#556081
oldflame wrote:
Sly Fox wrote:We win this one outright. Next week makes me VERY nervous.
Army doesn´t make me nervous because my expectations are realistic (as in LOW). It´s pretty much a total concensus that the matchup of their powerhouse option running game against our defense with their horrible track record against that type of offense makes it almost a sure loss and a potential blowout. A win would be epic, and playing them tough a ¨moral victory¨. The only game on the schedule we are less likely to win IMHO is Auburn.
LU has a record of playing tough for 2.5 to 3 quarters against even p5 schools. West Virginia, NCState, etc. Then depth takes over. Hopefully, we have more depth now.I see a win against OD. I don't think we can cover any spread against Army but I think a betting man can make some money by taking the spread against Auburn if we are not beatup by then. We are sandwiched between LSU and Bama. They will be resting/pulling as many starters as possible.
User avatar
By FlamesHighontheTide
Registration Days Posts
#556083
Is the assumption that those of us who expect 4 wins to 7 wins equal a lack of understanding of the game of football and the difficulty of a full FBS schedule?

Jonathan provided us some really good stats about the recent FBS transition teams. One of those teams that had a winning record their first full FBS season also had a losing record in their last full FCS season. App State is that team. I find it also interesting that their first full FBS season had a loss to our boys.

Coastal is a good example to look at as a transition, but I think having Joe on the sidelines and more involved than he was last year due to his health problems would have produced atleast 2 more wins on their record if not 3. My personal opinion is our talent is much much better on the defensive side of the ball and the offense is a year better as well. Not to mention our offense aside from the St. Francis and Jax State games was one of the best in FCS. Pair these two together even against a full FBS season and maybe some peoples judgement is not as clouded as perceived.
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#556085
App State and Coastal are both really hard situations to compare. App was trying to redshirt pretty much everyone the year before they transitioned and the year they played us. The game against us is when they took the redshirt off their freshman QB. After us, they went and rolled off six straight wins. Had they had Lamb from the first game, my guess is they would've won 8-9 games instead of the six they won.

Coastal can't be taken at face value because Joe wasn't there. The acting head coach was the former head coach of their biggest rival who was instilling a brand new offense at the same time. This year will be a better look at what they're capable of as an FBS transitional school.
User avatar
By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#556087
FlamesHighontheTide wrote:Is the assumption that those of us who expect 4 wins to 7 wins equal a lack of understanding of the game of football and the difficulty of a full FBS schedule?
For many Liberty fans, I would say that's definitely my assumption. Our fan base isn't the most educated when it comes to how all of this works.

That said, I don't necessarily lump you into that category. It's obvious you have ties to the current coaching staff that gives you an inside feel for what's going on and a bias toward thinking positively on everything. It's exactly where I was with the Rocco regime. While I disagree with many of the things you think we'll do, I can at least appreciate where it's coming from.
User avatar
By thepostman
Registration Days Posts
#556095
Its how fans of solid FCS programs all think. they think fcs success equates to success on the FBS level. Of course we have been mediocre so its even more ridiculous reading LU fans predict 6+ wins. Were they just not watching the past 3 years???
User avatar
By Class of 20Something
Posts
#556096
Jonathan Carone wrote:Our past performance against FBS schools is the single biggest thing clouding fans' views for how well we'll do this year.
:koolaid LIBERTY AND ODU ARE BOTH 3-3 IN THEIR LAST 6 GAMES AGAINST FBS OPPONENTS :koolaid
By Ewglenn
Posts
#556116
Chippy wrote:
prototype wrote:
Jonathan Carone wrote:I want to be fair and make sure we're comparing apples to apples, so I went back and researched this further.

Of the 16 teams who transitioned before us, nine played their first FBS game vs a G5 while seven played their first FBS game vs a P5. Of the teams that played a G5 in their first game, the record was 4-5. So that trends better for us than the other numbers but still not great.

To go one step further, I looked at each team's first home game vs a G5 opponent. The overall record was 4-12 in that game.

Needless to say, a win on Saturday would be really, really impressive.
I agree. I want us to be good right away, but I think little truly understand what this move means and how much more talented this level is compared to where we have been. We have had NO time to improve our roster to that level yet. In the past - we would have been happy to beat one FBS program every year - I'm not expecting us to run through this schedule, but actually take some pretty good beatings this year. We will need a different level of recruit at all positions, not just a few - to compete.

I hope we lose by less than 21 in this one.
A realist telling it like it is. Like I said in another post,Coastal was 3-9 last year with an FCS win against Idaho (13-7). They had a dominant run in FCS, talent at most every position, and a verygood coach and still didn't win the number of games we are expecting to win. This coming from me who likes kool aid, kick-a-poo joy juice and even a little nectar of the gods.
CCU also lost to FCS WIU 52-10 but you forgot to mention that. The jump from FCS to the G5 is not that great.
User avatar
By FlamesHighontheTide
Registration Days Posts
#556120
Jonathan Carone wrote:App State and Coastal are both really hard situations to compare. App was trying to redshirt pretty much everyone the year before they transitioned and the year they played us. The game against us is when they took the redshirt off their freshman QB. After us, they went and rolled off six straight wins. Had they had Lamb from the first game, my guess is they would've won 8-9 games instead of the six they won.

Coastal can't be taken at face value because Joe wasn't there. The acting head coach was the former head coach of their biggest rival who was instilling a brand new offense at the same time. This year will be a better look at what they're capable of as an FBS transitional school.

Good insight brother. I was unaware that App St. redshirted so many players that last FCS season. I guess I was shocked when i looked at their last FCS season and saw how poorly they played that year. Before NDSU, App St. for a while ran FCS and beating Michigan in Ann Arbor doesn't hurt either :D
User avatar
By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#556131
I am thinking a lot of X Factors including a proven ability to win a big first game gets LU the win and cover The FBS slog won’t lend to a Cinderella Story season and all the factors Jon lists will bear out. But this one game I’m going with an LU win
By Dalegarz1
Posts
#556136
Buckshot has big game and we out score ODU with a late field goal. I expect a lot of offense from both sides. Next week will be a different story. Army will control the clock and severely limit the number of possessions we have. It could be ugly.
User avatar
By thepostman
Registration Days Posts
#556137
Purple Haize wrote:I am thinking a lot of X Factors including a proven ability to win a big first game gets LU the win and cover The FBS slog won’t lend to a Cinderella Story season and all the factors Jon lists will bear out. But this one game I’m going with an LU win
Those are the exact reasons i think we win as well. The rest of the season will be disastrous but we will pull through on Saturday.

Also LU is undefeated in games I have attended since graduation back in 2008.

I've only attended one game but those are just small details.
User avatar
By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#556139
thepostman wrote:
Purple Haize wrote:I am thinking a lot of X Factors including a proven ability to win a big first game gets LU the win and cover The FBS slog won’t lend to a Cinderella Story season and all the factors Jon lists will bear out. But this one game I’m going with an LU win
Those are the exact reasons i think we win as well. The rest of the season will be disastrous but we will pull through on Saturday.

Also LU is undefeated in games I have attended since graduation back in 2008.

I've only attended one game but those are just small details.
You agree with me? Crap. Better call Vinnie The Bookie and change my bet
By Volunteer_Flame
Posts Posts
#556141
Jonathan Carone wrote:We start the week off at +6.5.

Will we win outright? Lose but cover the spread? Or lose by more than 6.5?

(Edit: I originally typed the line as -6.5. That's been fixed. The descriptions and poll options were correct all along. My bad!)

Lose, but cover.
By walksports
Posts
#556184
One of the other Texans here thinks that Saturday will be a win, but not by much.

Side note: I was at an Alabama at North Texas women's soccer match the Sunday before last and, of course, wearing my Liberty shirt and hat. Their Sr. Associate AD for Ticket Sales/Operations - who has a soccer background - excitedly asked me if I was going to come to the football game there against UNT ... which is in 2021. Pretty impressive. I told him that I lived in the greater Houston area and was actually going to be at the UNT game in Lynchburg in (now) three weeks.
By rtb72
Posts
#556209
Based on today's announcement, if we force a running game that is not there....we lose and will not cover.
By JK37
Registration Days Posts
#556210
Purple Haize wrote:
You agree with me? Crap. Better call Vinnie The Bookie and change my bet
You use Vinnie?! I use my guy at the deli, Joey Bag o’ Donuts.

It makes me chuckle how many are hedging their optimistic bet on this week with immediate negativity for the rest of the season. Like, just enjoy the first official FBS game, peeps. And save your predictions for the rest of the season until you actually, ya know, see this team play a game!

I think LU wins by 17. Buckshot slinging it all over the place.

Have fun!
User avatar
By BJWilliams
Registration Days Posts
#556214
I have had our boys on the winning side of this one pretty much from the jump Coach. I don't have a problem with establishing the run game first in this one, just like i didn't have a problem with us going with the short passing game at the outset of the Baylor game last year. Ive got my red shirts all set to wear at work during the game. I just wish i i could have ear buds so I could listen in
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