I know there seems to be a lot of apathy for how this season may go for our Flames. It also seems to me that the record prediction is on average somewhere around the 3 to 5 win range and maybe even more so around the 3 win total. Yet, a few here at ASOR have predicted 5,6 and even 7 wins for the season. Those predictions, especially the 6 and 7 win predictions may seem like kool-aid addiction response or even unrealistic ones. For what it is worth. I want to break-down why I think 6 or 7 wins is definitely attainable and not unrealistic. Even with the coaching staff that we still have.
1. Under Gill, our home record is 27-9. The home opener record is 5-1 with the win by an average of 32.6 points. I know that each of these wins came against zero FBS teams but the common factor is execution and efficiency on offense. 4 times in 6 years Gill has gone 4-2 at home(one of those years was the playoff year). So, if we keep to the trend, then we are already at 4 wins for the entire season. Most everyone is saying we will beat ODU, NSU and ISU. Winning against NMSU at home on thanksgiving gives us those 4 home victories. A winning record at home helps with recruiting as every home game will more than likely have recruits taking in the game.
2. Under Gill we are 4-2 when coming off a bye week. One of those two losses was the 2 OT loss to Coastal 55-52(I was there for that roller-coaster ride!) We play UMASS a week after they have a road game against UCONN. UMASS has averaged 2.3 wins a year since 2012. A win here which I expect puts us at 5.
***So far, seems pretty legit right
3. at New Mexico or at New Mexico St.: This one is tough, because there is a 2 hour time differences and flying in a plane across the country and having your whole routine and sleep off a little bit can mess with you. Just because your a college athlete doesn't exempt you from this. New Mexico went 3-9 last year and lost 7 straight. If the team stays out west for the entire week then it is very possible we could win both of these before heading home. NMSU went bowling last year yes, but they must replace their starting qb and before last year they went 3-9, 3-9, 2-10, 2-10 and lived in the bottom 10 on espn.com. All I am saying is this, these two games are definitely winnable and at worst we should go 1-1. This puts us at the 6 win mark for the season if we just split. It also puts us at 7 wins if we take both of these. Side note: both of their defenses were practically non-existent(like ours.) NMSU gave up 30 points a game and NM gave up 32 a game. Is it a stretch to believe that our offense can put up enough points to win both of these ball games against weak defenses? I don't think so.
4. I know that this is an FBS schedule and we are playing 12 games instead of 11 the last couple years. Obviously there will be more wear and tear on our team but we do have more talented depth than we have had in the past as well. However, the influx of juco talent on the defensive side as well as the wealth of experience that was gained by last years butt-whooping SHOULD help us field a better defense than last year. ODU, Georgia Southern and App St.(who we beat that year) all had 6 wins or more their first year in FBS. They also seem to have had more difficult schedules their first years too.
Maybe I sound crazy, but I really think this team is going to surprise a lot of us.