Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

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By Liberty22
Registration Days Posts
#539452
olldflame wrote:Win 6 D1 games and you will probably go bowling, especially if your fan base travels as well as ours does.
You know, our fan base travels well for an away game I’d say usually in the 1,500 range but I’m curious to see how we travel for a bowl game. For a bowl game your intent is to fill half of whatever venue you’re in, not sure we travel that well. JMU playoff game was good but we’ll need to do better for a bowl.
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By CCWMichael
Posts
#539454
Ewglenn wrote:Are you all looking at the teams that are scheduled in year three? It will be much easier in year one or two to get to six wins.
The metrics on this tell me it is easily achievable. Since 2013 we have played 8 FBS schools and our average score 28.375. Opponents average score 38.125. All we need to do is make up two scores in three years. 2020 we have six slots open and UMass, VT, Virginia, Cuse, Bowling, Sothern Miss, NCST. 3 maybe four of these are winnable. 2021 Troy, ODU, cuse, UAB, N. Tex, Umass, ole Miss, UL Laff, Army six of theses winnable --- by only making up two scores. Bring in a leader and we have it sewn up sooner than later. Bring in metrics to football. What a training tool. Students at LU learning metrics and the players spending their own time growing with metrics and the coaching reinforces metrics ... should be NCAA allowable.
By olldflame
Registration Days Posts
#539456
Liberty22 wrote:
olldflame wrote:Win 6 D1 games and you will probably go bowling, especially if your fan base travels as well as ours does.
You know, our fan base travels well for an away game I’d say usually in the 1,500 range but I’m curious to see how we travel for a bowl game. For a bowl game your intent is to fill half of whatever venue you’re in, not sure we travel that well. JMU playoff game was good but we’ll need to do better for a bowl.

The best indicator of that would be the playoff games against JMU and Villanova. Not sure on the numbers, but we were very well represented.
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#539458
CCWMichael wrote:
Ewglenn wrote:Are you all looking at the teams that are scheduled in year three? It will be much easier in year one or two to get to six wins.
The metrics on this tell me it is easily achievable. Since 2013 we have played 8 FBS schools and our average score 28.375. Opponents average score 38.125. All we need to do is make up two scores in three years. 2020 we have six slots open and UMass, VT, Virginia, Cuse, Bowling, Sothern Miss, NCST. 3 maybe four of these are winnable. 2021 Troy, ODU, cuse, UAB, N. Tex, Umass, ole Miss, UL Laff, Army six of theses winnable --- by only making up two scores. Bring in a leader and we have it sewn up sooner than later. Bring in metrics to football. What a training tool. Students at LU learning metrics and the players spending their own time growing with metrics and the coaching reinforces metrics ... should be NCAA allowable.
Since 2013 how many of those teams were Bowl teams? How many points did LU score against them? I think maybe it was VT and it was a new coach, new system and entirely different team by the end of the year.
“All” and “2 scores” is a lot more difficult than it sounds.
What 3 or 4 games do you see LU winning against the teams you listed in 2020?
Which 6 in 2021?
Analytics and football don’t seem to mix that well. Ask The Browns
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By Jonathan Carone
Posts
#539460
Those “only two scores” also don’t account for how much different the games would’ve been if teams didn’t play vanilla game plans against us because we were an FCS team.
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By CCWMichael
Posts
#539468
Purple Haize wrote:
CCWMichael wrote:
Ewglenn wrote:Are you all looking at the teams that are scheduled in year three? It will be much easier in year one or two to get to six wins.
The metrics on this tell me it is easily achievable. Since 2013 we have played 8 FBS schools and our average score 28.375. Opponents average score 38.125. All we need to do is make up two scores in three years. 2020 we have six slots open and UMass, VT, Virginia, Cuse, Bowling, Sothern Miss, NCST. 3 maybe four of these are winnable. 2021 Troy, ODU, cuse, UAB, N. Tex, Umass, ole Miss, UL Laff, Army six of theses winnable --- by only making up two scores. Bring in a leader and we have it sewn up sooner than later. Bring in metrics to football. What a training tool. Students at LU learning metrics and the players spending their own time growing with metrics and the coaching reinforces metrics ... should be NCAA allowable.
Since 2013 how many of those teams were Bowl teams? How many points did LU score against them? I think maybe it was VT and it was a new coach, new system and entirely different team by the end of the year.
“All” and “2 scores” is a lot more difficult than it sounds.
What 3 or 4 games do you see LU winning against the teams you listed in 2020?
Which 6 in 2021?
Analytics and football don’t seem to mix that well. Ask The Browns
Good question. I'll go Star Spangled Banner on this (MR. Hendrix style). We played four bowl teams in the years we played them and beat a bowl team in 2015 as an FCS school. We will assume Baylor will not make a bowl like a 5 loss Nebraska.

Going off 2016 records ---

2020 wins with six open slots to be filled Cuse is weak, Virginia is always beatable, Umass done, Bowling Green possible

2021 wins Cuse, UAB, North Texas, Umass, Army, UL Laff

Metrics are awesome. Take a video of pro bowlers and precisely pinpoint movements, match current players movements to those and teach best possible outcome positions for plays. Statistical anaylitcs with video is a great way to improve performance .. ask the Houston Astros. I would love to give you further statistics to solidify my position on our possible wins but I like my life and to do that much math I want a paycheck.

Light Em' UP
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By FlamesHighontheTide
Registration Days Posts
#539480
I hate to break peoples bubbles, but the Wahoos under Bronco Mendenhall are turning the tide on this sad tale of UVA football for the past decade plus. We are going to be catching them at a bad time, but that doesn't mean that they like Baylor could look past us and we get the better hand.

Also, for the 2020 season I still think 6 wins is very possible considering we don't know the remaining schedule and we should beat UMASS and Bowling Green. For the record, Southern Miss is very beatable and not a stretch to think so. That means only winning 3 out of the remaining 5. Which 1 of those 5 will be an FCS. So again yes, 6 is very doable.
By Ewglenn
Posts
#539492
FlamesHighontheTide wrote:I hate to break peoples bubbles, but the Wahoos under Bronco Mendenhall are turning the tide on this sad tale of UVA football for the past decade plus. We are going to be catching them at a bad time, but that doesn't mean that they like Baylor could look past us and we get the better hand.

Also, for the 2020 season I still think 6 wins is very possible considering we don't know the remaining schedule and we should beat UMASS and Bowling Green. For the record, Southern Miss is very beatable and not a stretch to think so. That means only winning 3 out of the remaining 5. Which 1 of those 5 will be an FCS. So again yes, 6 is very doable.
I wouldn't classify Southern Miss as "very beatable" and Bowling Green as a "should" win game. Who knows where we will be at that point but those will be difficult games. Six wins is doable but not probable. UVA is looking better but they did lose to BC this past weekend by 31. So who knows what they will look like. All I'm saying is there is no telling what will happen. I'm still excited for the potential.
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By Sly Fox
Registration Days Posts
#539503
This may come as a surprise to some of you, but lower expectations is actually an attractive notion to most young coaches. It is easier to distinguish yourself as your career develops. If you can win at Liberty in spite of the challenges then it raises your profile to the big boys.
By Ewglenn
Posts
#539512
Sly Fox wrote:This may come as a surprise to some of you, but lower expectations is actually an attractive notion to most young coaches. It is easier to distinguish yourself as your career develops. If you can win at Liberty in spite of the challenges then it raises your profile to the big boys.
Well lower expectations means less likely to lose your job. A coach could come to LU and stick around for a long time by just getting to bowl games. I could see that being attractive to some coaches.
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#539514
Sly Fox wrote:This may come as a surprise to some of you, but lower expectations is actually an attractive notion to most young coaches. It is easier to distinguish yourself as your career develops. If you can win at Liberty in spite of the challenges then it raises your profile to the big boys.
Low expectations certainly are. But having the ability to exceed them plays a role.
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By CCWMichael
Posts
#539530
Call me disillusioned but I love to dream. We do have player talent on board at this time and we will only add to that. We are not too far from being valued as an opponent. As of this moment there are 74 schools with at least 4 wins in FBS. 6 is bowl eligible. Is our target really that low? I would hope with commitment from above and teaching motivator we will be in bowl games sooner rather than later. Let's get off to a good start with letting big game Gill go. He is good with the big games but the expected wins he fails all through his career. OBTW, the Kool Aid here is really good
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#539531
CCWMichael wrote:Call me disillusioned but I love to dream. We do have player talent on board at this time and we will only add to that. We are not too far from being valued as an opponent. As of this moment there are 74 schools with at least 4 wins in FBS. 6 is bowl eligible. Is our target really that low? I would hope with commitment from above and teaching motivator we will be in bowl games sooner rather than later. Let's get off to a good start with letting big game Gill go. He is good with the big games but the expected wins he fails all through his career. OBTW, the Kool Aid here is really good
Yeah. I'm not sure what camp you fall in. You're too new. I sense a lot of :koolaid in you but there is a hint of :flamingdevil as well. We will know soon I think
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By Liberty22
Registration Days Posts
#539534
I’m sitting here flipping between World Series and SMU vs Tulsa. Looks like maybe 200 in the stands at SMU. What was attendance like last year for those of you who made that trek? I’m just wondering if it’s fall break or something there cause no ones at the game. Makes me think our fan base may be better than we realize cause I see a lot of G5 venues that are more empty than full and even when we have years like this Williams stadium is usually more full than empty. Not sure what a Friday night game would be like in the burg but gotta be better than SMU fans did.
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#539600
Apparently 22-12 with 2 appearances in the Conference Championship Game isn’t enough success at Florida
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By CCWMichael
Posts
#539608
Purple Haize wrote:Apparently 22-12 with 2 appearances in the Conference Championship Game isn’t enough success at Florida
Expectations are brutal... Florida had some good stuff but the expectation is always.
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By CCWMichael
Posts
#539609
Purple Haize wrote:
CCWMichael wrote:Call me disillusioned but I love to dream. We do have player talent on board at this time and we will only add to that. We are not too far from being valued as an opponent. As of this moment there are 74 schools with at least 4 wins in FBS. 6 is bowl eligible. Is our target really that low? I would hope with commitment from above and teaching motivator we will be in bowl games sooner rather than later. Let's get off to a good start with letting big game Gill go. He is good with the big games but the expected wins he fails all through his career. OBTW, the Kool Aid here is really good
Yeah. I'm not sure what camp you fall in. You're too new. I sense a lot of :koolaid in you but there is a hint of :flamingdevil as well. We will know soon I think
I drink FLAMING Kool-Aid
By BigRed1
Posts
#539639
Purple Haize wrote:Apparently 22-12 with 2 appearances in the Conference Championship Game isn’t enough success at Florida
From what I’ve read, it seems that the last straw was McElwain holding a press conference and talking about death threats without the administration ever being told. Then when confronted by the administration, he was unable to elaborate on said threats. If that’s the case, it sounds like a coach trying to deflect attention from his own shortcomings and placing them somewhere else. Kind of like Gill and his staff passing the buck onto their players to cover their own failures.
By JK37
Registration Days Posts
#539652
Two WEAK divisional titles. Each year he got DECIMATED by Alabama and FSU, respectively. Then he gets CRUSHED by UGA in Week 7. All that, and he probably would’ve gotten to the end of the season, if not one more year, if he wasn’t so bad at PR. He couldn’t handle the spotlight or the pressure. It ain’t for everybody.
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By LUalumfromnc
Registration Days Posts
#539927
Getting into a great FBS conference in all sports and start a winning tradition in football that turns bad football programs into good ones (TCU & Boise State).
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By Sly Fox
Registration Days Posts
#539967
LUalumfromnc wrote:Getting into a great FBS conference in all sports and start a winning tradition in football that turns bad football programs into good ones (TCU & Boise State).
Image
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By R i
Registration Days Posts
#542786
Jonathan Carone wrote:
FlamesHighontheTide wrote:If we can steadily improve each year on the field and in recruiting I will be happy. How that will look on the record end of things.

2018 - 4 to 6 wins = success
2019 - 4 to 7 wins = success
- With the way some of these teams are playing on our 2019 schedule, it wouldn't surprise me if we were bowl eligible and got an invite. This will depend on who we hire though.
2020 - 5 to 7 wins = success
2021 - 6 to 8 wins & bowl = success
2022 - 6 to 8 wins & bowl = success

ALOT to look forward to with this transition.
I think this is a very fair outlook.
Successful Transition defined.
By ballcoach15
Registration Days Posts
#542992
Central Florida went winless in 2015. Went to a bowl game in 2016. Went undefeated in 2017.
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