Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#531654
Liberty22 wrote:I get the disdain for hiring McCaw but Pat Forde reaches way back to an extremely old Jerry Sr quote to attack Liberty for hiring him. Check this out

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/baylor-sc ... 32114.html
There are reports that Forde injured his butt from pulling that quote out
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By lawrenceq
Registration Days Posts
#531664
cruzan_flame13 wrote:The Sun Belt have decided to split their conference into two divisions by the 2018 season.
I saw an article on that yesterday. I also read an article about a possible Sunbelt/CUSA merger, with JMU and LU being added to create regional rivalries and cut down on travel​ expenses for the less popular sports.
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By Liberty22
Registration Days Posts
#531666
Purple Haize wrote:
Liberty22 wrote:I get the disdain for hiring McCaw but Pat Forde reaches way back to an extremely old Jerry Sr quote to attack Liberty for hiring him. Check this out

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/baylor-sc ... 32114.html
There are reports that Forde injured his butt from pulling that quote out
I mean seriously, let's see how far back we can reach into Liberty's past to make them look bad
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#531667
lawrenceq wrote:
cruzan_flame13 wrote:The Sun Belt have decided to split their conference into two divisions by the 2018 season.
I saw an article on that yesterday. I also read an article about a possible Sunbelt/CUSA merger, with JMU and LU being added to create regional rivalries and cut down on travel​ expenses for the less popular sports.
Those 2 conference would have to bury a lot of hatchets but it makes sense.
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By BJWilliams
Registration Days Posts
#531671
Forde hasn't been relevant for some time...even going back to when he was at ESPN
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By Sly Fox
Registration Days Posts
#531820
Purple Haize wrote:Those 2 conference would have to bury a lot of hatchets but it makes sense.
I agree completely that any possible realignment would be a bit messy. But economics are driving toward this uncomfortable situation. The NCAA could help this along by working with school of playoff credit redistribution and waiving some of the league requirements allowing the new realigned leagues to maintain their full auto bid status. This could be done as an emergency order from Indianapolis. Keep in mind that the P5 schools with their increased authority would have to be on board. Persoanlly I don't see a down side for the P5s, but they could hang this over the G5 heads as a "concession" they have generously made to help the viability fo the subdivision.

Such a realignment would not necessarily be to our benefit as we could still be left out in the cold. But there is the possibility that the NCAA could allow the two leagues plus indies to be split into three leagues perhaps Southwest (Texas,NM & possibly LA schools), South and East Coast. We would would be thrilled to land in either of the latter two leagues and would probably be willing to go to Southwest if it meant leveling out other thorny issues. But this is just pure conjecture on my part.
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By Class of 20Something
Posts
#531925
willflop wrote:I posted the same chart in the 2019 schedule forum, so i thought I'd do it here as well. Liberty's Sagarin is 51, based on 2106.

Image
So 4 games we are favored in plus two within the HFA spread? I would be elated to have 6 wins in '18. With a bump in recruiting and scholarships we might never dip below .500. What a selling point that could be. 15 years and an FBS jump without​ a losing record. (2005 was our last losing record)
By willflop
Posts
#531926
Yes, at least on paper, but 2 of the 4 we are favored are FCS. The average FBS sagarin is 61, so to go 5/5 against FBS we'd need to improve our 2016 FCS sagarin of 51 up to 61. I'm sure just having the extra scholarships will help, just not sure how much.
By willflop
Posts
#531927
Here's an updated chart that shows our probability of winning each game based on different future projected sagrin ratings. The win probability is based on on the spread and a conversion chart I found online, so it's probably a little rough. At any rate...

Image
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By Class of 20Something
Posts
#533878
willflop wrote:Here's an updated chart that shows our probability of winning each game based on different future projected sagrin ratings. The win probability is based on on the spread and a conversion chart I found online, so it's probably a little rough. At any rate...

Image
I'm really excited to see how this changes after the 2017 season. Out of curiosity, what's the average rating for FCS schools, top 25 FCS, and in the G5 conferences? With the disparity between most P5 and G5 I'm sure that a jump to 61 would mean consistent winning seasons with G5 scheduling.
By willflop
Posts
#533882
Class of 20Something wrote:
willflop wrote:Here's an updated chart that shows our probability of winning each game based on different future projected sagrin ratings. The win probability is based on on the spread and a conversion chart I found online, so it's probably a little rough. At any rate...

Image
I'm really excited to see how this changes after the 2017 season. Out of curiosity, what's the average rating for FCS schools, top 25 FCS, and in the G5 conferences? With the disparity between most P5 and G5 I'm sure that a jump to 61 would mean consistent winning seasons with G5 scheduling.
This is what i came up with...

FBS Average = 69
FCS Average = 41

FBS Average (Top 25) = 88
FCS Average (Top 25) = 62

P5 Average = 77
G5 Average = 61
Indy = 66

If we use Coastal as an example, they did a 61 in their FCS transition, so it'll also be interesting to see what they churn out after their 2017 FBS schedule as well. Maybe we'll follow a similar path.
User avatar
By Class of 20Something
Posts
#533884
willflop wrote:
Class of 20Something wrote:
willflop wrote:Here's an updated chart that shows our probability of winning each game based on different future projected sagrin ratings. The win probability is based on on the spread and a conversion chart I found online, so it's probably a little rough. At any rate...

Image
I'm really excited to see how this changes after the 2017 season. Out of curiosity, what's the average rating for FCS schools, top 25 FCS, and in the G5 conferences? With the disparity between most P5 and G5 I'm sure that a jump to 61 would mean consistent winning seasons with G5 scheduling.
This is what i came up with...

FBS Average = 69
FCS Average = 41

FBS Average (Top 25) = 88
FCS Average (Top 25) = 62

P5 Average = 77
G5 Average = 61
Indy = 66

If we use Coastal as an example, they did a 61 in their FCS transition, so it'll also be interesting to see what they churn out after their 2017 FBS schedule as well. Maybe we'll follow a similar path.
That's way faster than I expected to get that response. That's all really interesting. It kind of confirms how we "feel" about conference strength. I'm really impressed with the FCS Top 25 being higher than the G5 average, but the G5 does have a few that might be skewing it low.

I was just looking at the 2016 SOS, CCU was 209 out of 254 Division 1 schools. :oops:
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