Anything and everything about Liberty Flames football. Your comments on games, recruiting and the direction of the program as we move into new era.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke, Class of 20Something

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By flameshaw
Registration Days Posts
#563167
Class of 20Something wrote:Just to pitch a semi, not crazy school that the storyline hire makes sense. Turner Gill to North Texas. Seth Littrell will get hired somewhere(coughlouisvillecough) and they will want a "proven" FBS coach that fits them and their identity.

Proven meaning Bowl success at Buffalo, the tied for best record in a decade at Kansas, and hopefully a 6-6 record with a transitional Liberty team.
Unless we win out, (which we won't), TG will not even sniff another FBS job, if we do the right thing and let him go.
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By bigsmooth
Registration Days Posts
#563168
FlamesHighontheTide wrote:Here is a name to throw out there if LU wants someone who has coached P5 ball and been someone that defensive coaches admire and who has been successful maybe not as much as we want but I think could be a step in the right direction. That name is Mike London who is now the head coach at Howard University and former National Champion head coach of Richmond but more well known for his time at UVA. Any thoughts?
London is another Turner Gill, just a better recruiter. Absolutely horrible play caller and cannot manage late game situations.
By Ewglenn
Posts
#563171
bigsmooth wrote:I would still go after Clark at UAB.
A few things to consider:

His buyout is 3.8 million which we would have to pay.

He makes 900k per year prior to bonuses roughly 1mil per year after.

The question is how much would it take to get him here? I would think at least 1.5 for an extended time frame. In other words, it’s not going to happen.
By Equinox
Registration Days Posts
#563173
"Flamehunter wrote:
Backtrack all you want but sounded like you wanted the person "like" Bud Foster to be Bud Foster"

Ummm wrong again, but at least we can agree about the removal of Gill.
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By flameshaw
Registration Days Posts
#563299
Not sure where to post this, but I believe it is more applicable here, because it is just another good example of why we need another HC.
I talked to my friend at the gym this morning. He is the one who played at one ACC school, coached at a SEC school and played for the Atlanta Falcons.
He has a passing interest in LU, because he is a good christian and wanted to come to be a part of the program at LU, but JB didn't hire him, in spite of great references from current employees at LU.
I suspect he probably doesn't know as much about football as TG, :roll: , but thought I might pass along his thoughts.
I told him what happened against UVA with the 4 and inches call. He couldn't believe it. He couldn't not think of one reason to make that call, run or pass. He had to actually ask me again what happened, he just couldn't believe it. As some have said here, the ONLY play to call in that circumstance is a punt.
Unfortunately, I read where TG doubled down on this yuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge mental error in the presser yesterday.
It has happened so many times in the last several years. It is not so much whether we win or lose some games. (I don't think anyone really thought we would beat UVA, but the dumb decisions that the coaching staff makes, just make things worse).
Rant over...................................... for now. :)
Last edited by flameshaw on November 14th, 2018, 7:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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By Class of 20Something
Posts
#563300
flameshaw wrote:Not sure where to post this, but I believe it is more applicable her, because it is just another good reason we need another HC.
I talked to my friend at the gym this morning. He is the one who played at one ACC school, coached at a SEC school and played for the Atlanta Falcons.
He has a passing interest in LU, because he is a good christian and wanted to come to be a part of the program at LU, but JB didn't hire him, in spite of great references from current employees at LU.
I suspect he probably doesn't know as much about football as TG, :roll: , but thought I might pass along his thoughts.
I told him what happened against UVA with the 4 and inches call. He couldn't believe it. He couldn't not think of one reason to make that call, run or pass. He had to actually aske me again what happened, he just couldn't believe it. As some have said here, the ONLY play to call in that circumstance is a punt.
Unfortunately, I read where TG doubled down on this yuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge mental error in the presser yesterday.
It has happened so many times in the last several years. It is not so much whether we win or lose some games. (I don't think anyone really thought we would beat UVA, but the dumb decisions that the coaching staff makes, just make things worse).
Rant over...................................... for now. :)
I have no issue with going for it all game. We were actually out classed on the talent front, so using 4 downs can help level the playing field. The calls I didn't like were attempting a 51 yard FG into the wind on 4th and 5 when we had already gone for it on 4th &1 at the 48 and not running the ball on that 4th and inches.

That was our 3rd try at 4th down in the game and the first two were successful(4th and goal at the 1 for a TD and 4th and 1 with a 9 yard pass to Farrow). Again, I like the decision, not the play call.
By ballcoach15
Registration Days Posts
#563302
Nothing wrong with going for it on 4th and inches. Giving ball to opponent isn't good idea except in rare situations, if you have lead.
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By LU 57
Posts
#563303
I was okay with the decision and the call. As for the decision, our defense had not stopped them all day so it did not really matter if we gave it to them on our 15 or their 15. They were going to score. Our only chance was to keep our defense on the sideline as long as possible with sustained drives.

As for the call, it is pretty well known that when presented with more defenders in the box than you can block from a numbers standpoint, that the QB should audible to a quick route, which is what he did. It is not like he audibled to a go, he audibled to a quick out to our best offensive player. This play is complete 9 out of 10 times. It just so happened that the kid from UVA made an outstanding play.

Anyway, I thought we showed fairly well overall. The offensive line and backs were particularly impressive. Much has been said about the defense so nothing to add there, but I just do not understand why our special teams are so bad. The only thing I can think is that there is not enough emphasis placed on them in practice and meetings.

Looking forward to seeing if we can have as much offensive success against Auburn.
By tyndal23
Posts
#563304
I completely agree - no problems whatsoever - IN fact I didn’t like that we didn’t go for it on 4th and went for long FG instead ( miss ) and even if we got 3 there, would have preferred going for a TD. I didn’t like the fact that after the failed conversion we stopped going for it on 4th down rest of the way. Sort of been a head scratcher when he does decide to go and others he doesn’t all year - ( Army ). With our D I would hope he goes for it every time it is 4th and 5 or less against Auburn.
By Ewglenn
Posts
#563308
I have no problem going on fourth with how bad the defense is playing but I think we should only do it if we are farther out of our end zone. That close was not a good call.
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By FlamesHighontheTide
Registration Days Posts
#563311
Football Coaching 101 would teach you never to go for it on 4th and inches deep in your own territory. We were down by 7 at that time and our defense had just forced UVA to punt (a miracle). If you go back and watch that 4th & inches play you will see 4 stay in pass coverage and 7 are playing the run with LU having 6 men on the line and 1 blocking back. We had a hat on a hat and need inches to get that first down. No ifs and buts about it, Pickett should have gotten the ball. It does bother me that HCTG was not willing to say it was probably the better call to either punt it or run it.
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By jinxy
Registration Days Posts
#563313
Going for it that deep is moronic. The argument that our defense sucks to justify it is equally moronic. How many times have you seen it done in college or pros this year? Our game was all ive ever seen but bellichick several years ago and that blew up too. Further most teams have bad defenses, maybe not as bad as ours but bad. They dont do it.

So Gill is smarter than the room on this? Cmon.

Further, says hes right. Then hes admitting his defensive coordinator has no shot and is therefore incompetent by making that call.

Cant have it both ways.
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By LU 57
Posts
#563314
FlamesHighontheTide wrote:Football Coaching 101 would teach you never to go for it on 4th and inches deep in your own territory. We were down by 7 at that time and our defense had just forced UVA to punt (a miracle). If you go back and watch that 4th & inches play you will see 4 stay in pass coverage and 7 are playing the run with LU having 6 men on the line and 1 blocking back. We had a hat on a hat and need inches to get that first down. No ifs and buts about it, Pickett should have gotten the ball. It does bother me that HCTG was not willing to say it was probably the better call to either punt it or run it.
I respectfully disagree. The pre-snap read had 8 in the box. Both safeties were within 6 yards of the LOS.

After the snap both safeties and the boundary corner bit hard on the play action, confirming that the safeties were run first. AGG and Farrow had man coverage. The kid from UVA just made an outstanding play.
Last edited by LU 57 on November 14th, 2018, 7:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
By tyndal23
Posts
#563315
FlamesHighontheTide wrote:Football Coaching 101 would teach you never to go for it on 4th and inches deep in your own territory. We were down by 7 at that time and our defense had just forced UVA to punt (a miracle). If you go back and watch that 4th & inches play you will see 4 stay in pass coverage and 7 are playing the run with LU having 6 men on the line and 1 blocking back. We had a hat on a hat and need inches to get that first down. No ifs and buts about it, Pickett should have gotten the ball. It does bother me that HCTG was not willing to say it was probably the better call to either punt it or run it.
If he did say that then he would be throwing Buckshot under the bus because he trusted him ( rightfully so in my opinion ) to make the right read - then most on here would be all over him more than they already are. I imagine if Buckshot were a Freshman - he wouldn’t be allowed to have a read option. More concerning to me were if were going to do it there, why not rest of the game?
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By flameshaw
Registration Days Posts
#563316
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I give up. Anyone who thinks that was a good call in that situation.......................... let's just say I am going to be nice and keep my comments to myself. :roll: :roll: It is even worse than I thought.
Carry on.
By willflop
Posts
#563318
Let’s look at the scenario of a 4th and 1 at the offense’s own 9 yard line (the worst possible field position at which this can occur). Simplifying things, there are 3 potential outcomes.

– Punting, which we will assume results in the opposing team taking possession at the 50 yard line (41 yard kick).

– Going for it and converting. Here, to keep things easy, we’ll assume the offense gains just 1 yard, the minimum needed to gain a 1st down.

– Going for it and failing, the result of which gives the opposing team the ball at the 9 yard line.

Applying the success rate and expected points we saw above, we come to the following values for each scenario:

– Punting is worth -2.04 points, which is the expected value of a 1st down at the 50 yard line (for the other team, hence the negative).

– Going for it and gaining 1 yard is worth -0.21 points, which is the value of a 1st down at the 10 yard line. However, this only has a 66.5% chance of happening, which we’ll adjust for in a moment.

– Going for it and failing is worth -4.83 points, which is the value of a 1st down for the OTHER team at the 9 yard line.

Using the 66.5%/33.5% success odds, we can calculate the expected value of going for it, that is the expected value WITHOUT KNOWING if you will succeed or fail.

Converting: -0.21 * .665 = -0.14

Failing: -4.83 * .335 = -1.62

Combined: -1.62 + -0.14 = -1.76

See why that’s a big deal?

Given a 4th and 1 at your own 9 yard line, an average punt is “worth” -2.04 points, while going for it (with average success) is “worth” -1.76.

Going for it is worth 0.28 points MORE than punting.
https://eaglesrewind-com.cdn.ampproject ... h-and-1%2F
By willflop
Posts
#563325
BuryYourDuke wrote:I’m all about using metrics in decision making. It is for this reason that I’ve been critical of punting for years. I think once you get to your own 30 yardline or so, anything 4th & 5 or less you should be going every time. It just doesn’t make statistical sense not to. Especially as the game’s rules have slanted more and more in favor of offenses.

All of that being said, going for it from your own 9 that early is ridiculous. Defending it days later is even more ridiculous.
The 9 was an example from the article; I think we were on the 15. Either way, are you rejecting the math outright, or does ridiculous just mean unconventional here?
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By Class of 20Something
Posts
#563326
Dave Doreen wrote:I think the best thing you can do with anyone you're working with is be honest and own the things that are yours and ask them to own the things that are theirs. And point out the things that are correctable. And then get together with the guys.

And to me it's [an] opportunity coming up here to play another football game. And every week, whether we win or lose, we want to be better than we were the week before. And obviously we weren't able to do that last week.

So you use it as an opportunity to grow as a coach and as an opportunity to grow as a player. And it's not about blame. It's about fixing things and getting things back to where we can win a football game.
By JK37
Registration Days Posts
#563331
Honest questions:

1) If LU goes but runs, does the majority here feel the same way we do now? If LU converts, does majority feel the same? (Might be impossible to know these for sure.)

2) The standing by the decision(s) days later is what gets me. What would people be saying now if it was admitted as a bad decision and owned by HCTG?

I recall the 4th Down call at Army that got me so upset. It’s like the offensive staff is randomly trying to utilize BYD’s 4th Down analytics, but they’re doing so in the worst possible circumstantial applications.

My point is, the coaching staff really seems to be in CYA Mode right now. Would the more honorable thing be to admit a mistake and own a Growth Mindset where the coaches are learning from it? Or would that be too little, too late? I’m just saying doubling down may be a byproduct of CYA, but it’s a dumb one. The critical thinker, even in CYA Mode, spins the bad decision positively into a learning/teaching moment. Right?
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#563332
JK37 wrote:Honest questions:

1) If LU goes but runs, does the majority here feel the same way we do now? If LU converts, does majority feel the same? (Might be impossible to know these for sure.)

2) The standing by the decision(s) days later is what gets me. What would people be saying now if it was admitted as a bad decision and owned by HCTG?

I recall the 4th Down call at Army that got me so upset. It’s like the offensive staff is randomly trying to utilize BYD’s 4th Down analytics, but they’re doing so in the worst possible circumstantial applications.

My point is, the coaching staff really seems to be in CYA Mode right now. Would the more honorable thing be to admit a mistake and own a Growth Mindset where the coaches are learning from it? Or would that be too little, too late? I’m just saying doubling down may be a byproduct of CYA, but it’s a dumb one. The critical thinker, even in CYA Mode, spins the bad decision positively into a learning/teaching moment. Right?
Ive said from the beginning I liked the decision just didn’t like the play call. I even provided a sound bite that would have been nice
By JK37
Registration Days Posts
#563333
OK, but the analytics provided earlier say that even the decision to do it was poor, given the field position.

At first, I was the same: fine with decision, disappointed in play call. But given the field position and the lack of faith in the D, I really can’t come up with a logical reason for going, even with a better play call (run).
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#563336
JK37 wrote:OK, but the analytics provided earlier say that even the decision to do it was poor, given the field position.

At first, I was the same: fine with decision, disappointed in play call. But given the field position and the lack of faith in the D, I really can’t come up with a logical reason for going, even with a better play call (run).
Analytics killed Sports. Coaching is as much art as it is science. It also can be looked at as a gamblers fallacy to an extent. 18” is 18” no matter where it is on the field. If you don’t think you can get then don’t go for it regardless. I like the decision.
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