A Sea Of Red

I had a lot of fun with this, so I wanted to share it! Josh Woodrum says we're going to the playoffs with a 7-4 record. Everyone assumes he's talking about an at-large bid which, in my humble opinion, isn't likely in a conference with Coastal Carolina and Charleston Southern, and with two ugly losses to Gardner-Webb and Monmouth. I asked myself, "What would have to happen for Liberty to win the auto-bid?" Here's what I came up with:

• Liberty wins its remaining three games.

• The winner of Charleston Southern/Coastal loses one other game, giving them both two losses and Liberty the tiebreaker advantage in head-to-head competition. If Charleston Southern wins, they need to lose to Kennesaw State. If Coastal wins, they need to lose to Kennesaw State or Gardner-Webb.

• Kennesaw State loses one more Big South game, with Coastal, Charleston Southern, Monmouth and Presbyterian left to play.

• The winner of the Monmouth/Gardner-Webb game loses one other game, giving them both three losses in the Big South and avoiding a tie-breaker in head-to-head competition, which doesn't favor Liberty. Gardner-Webb has Presbyterian and Coastal left in Big South play. Monmouth has Kennesaw State and Presbyterian left in Big South play.

None of this matters if Liberty loses another game. Can they win them all? They're certainly capable of doing so. They should have won the first two Big South games, however, so anything can happen, and their last two games against Charleston Southern and Coastal will be hard-fought.

Can Kennesaw State beat either Charleston Southern or Coastal? I think they can beat Coastal, but I don't think they can beat Charleston Southern, which bottled up Gardner-Webb's running QB last weekend. The only way Charleston Southern gets to two losses is if Coastal and we beat them.

Can Coastal lose to Kennesaw State? Presbyterian and Monmouth both gave Coastal all they could handle, and I think Kennesaw State is a better team. Coastal seems to do just enough to win, however. It should be another nail-biter.

I already indicated that Kennesaw State will probably lose to Charleston Southern, but Coastal will be a tough opponent, and I'm not sure I've figured out this Monmouth team yet.

Gardner-Webb will lose to Coastal and could lose to Presbyterian. Monmouth could lose to Kennesaw State or Presbyterian.

There's going to be a lot of scoreboard watching in the next few weeks. What do you think?

So what you are saying is that we are not yet mathematically eliminated?

If there is a way to have the league end in a 3-way tie, then history says do not rule it out.

Sly Fox wrote:If there is a way to have the league end in a 3-way tie, then history says do not rule it out.

I believe I'm on record predicting a tie

So what you're saying is there's a chance. lol

Its a very VERY long shot for us at this point...but it is a shot. That would be the "perfect storm" scenario that rmiller is describing

(I can use the same gif to answer the question "will GW score another offensive touchdown this season?")

So what you're saying, g-webb is that there's a chance. Got it.

No.

The conference will get 2 bids. If CCU gets the auto bid and we beat both CCU and CSU we will get an atlarge bid. If CSU wins the auto bid CCU gets the atlarge and we are home for the winter. It is in our best interest for CCU to win this weekend.

As far as the auto: NO

We have a better shot at an auto bid than an at large. Both are slim and I am not

At this point and time....I would say no.

My 2 Cents....

Knowing that so many other factors besides what we do on the field ourselves are required for us to have a post-season, I'm not holding my breath.

However, there is something to be said for beating two ranked teams and the possibility of finishing a school rivalry in the same conference by beating the #1 "chickens" at home in a televised game. This does give us a moral victory to chew on till next August.

Although, a moral victory is certainly not what we all expected 30 days ago.

If LU can lose to Gardner Webb, anybody can beat anybody. I thought GW would be a sure "W" in a blow-out. I almost drove down to see it. I am thankful I did not make the voyage to Boiling Springs.

LUinPA wrote:My 2 Cents....

Knowing that so many other factors besides what we do on the field ourselves are required for us to have a post-season, I'm not holding my breath.

However, there is something to be said for beating two ranked teams and the possibility of finishing a school rivalry in the same conference by beating the #1 "chickens" at home in a televised game. This does give us a moral victory to chew on till next August.

Although, a moral victory is certainly not what we all expected 30 days ago.

Depending on how the CCU/CSU game plays out this weekend...it is very possible that Liberty will play two more ranked teams. If Liberty didn't lose Monmouth and GW, you could have been looking at a top 10 matchup against CCU. While Liberty has a long shot of making the playoffs this year, it would be good to end the season on a winning streak against two ranked teams. I don't like moral victories but at least it will give something for Liberty to build off heading to next season.

Man screw that, they were supposed to be building off the play-off run from last year, not playing for moral victories and such. ANYTHING, other than a return trip back to post-season in some shape form or fashion and the season is a disappointment, as far as im concerned.

IDC, if its Richmond or anywhere, and im going to exclude JMU at the present due to the QB situation so who knows where they may end up when it shakes out.

forbidden wrote:Man screw that, they were supposed to be building off the play-off run from last year, not playing for moral victories and such. ANYTHING, other than a return trip back to post-season in some shape form or fashion and the season is a disappointment, as far as im concerned.

IDC, if its Richmond or anywhere, and im going to exclude JMU at the present due to the QB situation so who knows where they may end up when it shakes out.

I stand right there with you "forbidden" but seeing that I plan to be back next year supporting the boys, I wish to find something that can be a positive. I don't know of any team that has constant improvements from season to season, there will always be rebuilding, crazy loses, injury's, it's an any given Saturday sport. I still think regardless of the results this year, the program is continuing to move forward. (of course I'm not implying you are saying we aren't moving forward)

There shouldn't be rebuilding and crazy losses when you return the majority of your skill players and are coming off your best result in school history.

You can go from the best season in school history to winless if things fall the wrong way Jon.

ANYTHING less than a playoff appearance will be a huge disappointment. Maybe anything less than 2 wins in the playoffs.

You have to buy the lottery ticket in order to be able to win a portion of the lottery, so in order to get the 2 wins you have to at least be involved. I could even take possibly being bounced in the first round, which would suck, but at least we would have been there.

BJWilliams wrote:You can go from the best season in school history to winless if things fall the wrong way Jon.

Beej - pay attention. I didn't say you can't. I said you shouldn't.

BJWilliams wrote:You can go from the best season in school history to winless if things fall the wrong way Jon.

Quality post once again. This is why you win awards on here! Very informative.

SuperJon wrote:

BJWilliams wrote:You can go from the best season in school history to winless if things fall the wrong way Jon.

Beej - pay attention. I didn't say you can't. I said you shouldn't.

I get that...I'm just saying that it can happen, whether it should or not