[BJWilliams]

balllcoach made a comment about getting quality FCS teams that travel well into Lynchburg and it actually got me to thinking about our schedule for next year (even though I know that our 2014 opener is in just 12 days). Here is what we are looking at for the schedule. I will fill in a couple hypothetical dates to allow for some context:

Sep 05 - Open
Sep 12 - @ West Virginia
Sep 19- Montana
Sep 26 - James Madison
Oct 03 - @ Georgia State
Oct 10 - @ Gardner-Webb*
Oct 17 - @ Monmouth*
Oct 24 - Kennesaw State*
Oct 31 - Open
Nov 07 - Presbyterian*
Nov 14 - @ Charleston Southern*
Nov 21 - Coastal Carolina*

If this is what the schedule looked like, we would have one more game to fill (assuming JMU actually keeps the game). If we filled the 09/26 date. that would mean opening with 8 straight games. If we filled the 10/31 date, that would come right in the middle of conference play (following our first ever matchup with Kennesaw State), and close the season with 9 straight games. My question is, who would we be able to find to fill one of those two dates that would be a "meter mover" and would also travel very well for the game?

[jcmanson]

You're not likely to get a "meter mover" for the final game. More likely to be someone along the lines of Bryant, St Francis, Campbell, etc.

[BJWilliams]

Campbell would be a nice matchup, getting Coach Minter back on the mountain again. With what we have lined up right now, we have 4 home games and 6 road games. St Francis is trending upward a bit with Coach Villarial so maybe we won't nearly set records like we did the last couple times the Red Flash have come to the mountain, if we scheduled them. Trolling over on AGS it looks like we have a couple possibilities, but you may be right manson, we may be hard pressed to get a "quality" opponent this late in the scheduling cycle. We could take a flyer on a MEAC team like Hampton or Howard or even NC Central.

[jcmanson]

My previous post has nothing to do with it being "hard pressed" to get a quality opponent this late, but more with the likelihood of our staff/AD wanting a more winnable game. Our current OOC is WVa, GA State, Montana, & JMU.

[BJWilliams]

Gotcha (and as I said, this is all assuming JMU keeps the game) manson. Getting a winnable game certainly would be much better for us. I think at this point, we probably will be looking at the MEAC, Pioneer, NEC, OVC and maybe the dregs from the SoCon (I really don't think anyone else from the CAA is going to want to play us) to fill that last slot

[BJWilliams]

Its a bit of a conundrum placing the bye week this year. The plus of having the bye 9/26 is a break after a tough three game stretch at the start of the season. The plus of having it 10/31 is that we get the two toughest games after the Presbyterian game and the bye week. the obvious downside of having as long a stretch is already pointed out, so I'm sure JB is giving that some thought as the final piece of the puzzle is being sought

[Sly Fox]

For the record, West Virginia opens up on September 5th hosting Georgia Southern. So it is likely that we travel to Morgantown on whichever Saturday in Mid-September that we aren't hosting Montana.

[BJWilliams]

Thanks for that info Sly. with JMU's first two games posted on their site, that probably puts that game on the 26th (again, assuming they keep that game).

[BJWilliams]

That leaves two possibilities (since based on this info, the order of the Montana and West Virginia games is irrelevant):

1. We open with back to back home games and play 8 in a row before a bye week, and finish with three conference games including what could again be the conference championship game against CCU in the finale

2. We start the season on September 12, but that would mean we play 11 consecutive weeks all the way to the CCU matchup November 21.

My guess is that #1 is more likely because we have seen what happens when a team plays so many consecutive weeks with no break

[bluejacket]

You're not likely to get a "meter mover" for the final game. More likely to be someone along the lines of Bryant, St Francis, Campbell, etc.

Yes.

[Kolzilla41]

You're not likely to get a "meter mover" for the final game. More likely to be someone along the lines of Bryant, St Francis, Campbell, etc.

Yes.

As long as it is FCS.

[bluejacket]

You're not likely to get a "meter mover" for the final game. More likely to be someone along the lines of Bryant, St Francis, Campbell, etc.

Yes.

As long as it is FCS.

Yes, it will be a bad FCS team.

[BJWilliams]

As I said above, as long as JMU keeps the game for next year, the way the schedule shakes out, we either could be playing 8 games in a row or 11 depending on where the aforementioned bad FCS team slots into the schedule

[bluejacket]

8 is not great but manageable. 11 consecutive games should be avoided at all costs.

[BJWilliams]

Agreed. we saw what happened last year to CSU near the end of the year when they had no break in their season after taking the Colorado game

I think with the changes at head coach (and I believe AD), that JMU game may happen more than likely

[bluejacket]

Jeff Bourne is still at JMU.

[BJWilliams]

Thanks. If JMU pulls out of the game (or postpones it again) that adds another hurdle to the schedule because that means two games to schedule, and with a lot of teams from the power conferences (even the bad ones) only having 3 non-conference games, finding a second game (home or away) will be much harder.

[bluejacket]

Mickey Matthews was our chief opponent, not Jeff Bourne. Everett Withers does not share the same feelings against us. There's no reason to expect them to drop the remaining game against us.

[BJWilliams]

That is what it seemed like to me as well, although I figured I'd leave no stone unturned as to why it took so long...all we really need now is to find out the Montana date because that date gives us a clue to the WVU date and where our likely bye week falls in.

If the Montana game slots in where I have it in the OP, we will go just over a month between home games (Montana and Kennesaw State). On the plus side, however, is that 3 of our last four games will be at home, and the one road game in that stretch will be PC (who we stomped in Clinton last year).

[jcmanson]

I thought I saw somewhere that the Montana game had to be either 9/19 or 9/26. Or maybe I dreamt that. Haha, I can't remember.

[jcmanson]

And it would make sense for us to play @WVU on 9/12. Of course, I'm probably wrong, I'm just guessing.

[BJWilliams]

I think in the Future Schedules thread, the Montana game is on either the 9/12 or 9/19, and as Sly mentioned above, wherever that game lands, the WVU game would probably fall on the date the Montana game does not get.

If West Virginia ended up on 9/12, we would actually alternate home/away/home/away for the first four games, and still have about a month between home games.

[BJWilliams]

Has Stetson finished their 2015 schedule?

[BJWilliams]

The way I figure it, if we are going for a "bad" FCS team, Id go for anyone rated lower than 200 in the Sagarin ratings (which cover all Division I teams)...which would give us these options:

200 Nicholls State AA = 42.50 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 42.50 200 | 42.50 200 | 42.50 200
College Football 2014 Starting Ratings
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.12] [ 3.12] [ 3.12] [ 3.12]
201 SE Missouri State AA = 42.50 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 42.50 201 | 42.50 201 | 42.50 201
202 Dayton AA = 42.20 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 42.20 202 | 42.20 202 | 42.20 202
203 Elon AA = 41.60 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 41.60 203 | 41.60 203 | 41.60 203
204 Bucknell AA = 40.86 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.86 204 | 40.86 204 | 40.86 204
205 Sacred Heart AA = 40.79 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.79 205 | 40.79 205 | 40.79 205
206 Incarnate Word AA = 40.73 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.73 206 | 40.73 206 | 40.73 206
207 Gardner-Webb AA = 40.72 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.72 207 | 40.72 207 | 40.72 207
208 Howard AA = 40.60 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.60 208 | 40.60 208 | 40.60 208
209 Colgate AA = 40.39 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.39 209 | 40.39 209 | 40.39 209
210 Southern U. AA = 39.77 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 39.77 210 | 39.77 210 | 39.77 210
College Football 2014 Starting Ratings
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.12] [ 3.12] [ 3.12] [ 3.12]
211 Duquesne AA = 39.55 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 39.55 211 | 39.55 211 | 39.55 211
212 Delaware State AA = 39.27 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 39.27 212 | 39.27 212 | 39.27 212
213 Holy Cross AA = 38.80 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 38.80 213 | 38.80 213 | 38.80 213
214 Jacksonville AA = 38.64 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 38.64 214 | 38.64 214 | 38.64 214
215 Monmouth-NJ AA = 38.28 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 38.28 215 | 38.28 215 | 38.28 215
216 Northern Colorado AA = 38.12 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 38.12 216 | 38.12 216 | 38.12 216
217 Norfolk State AA = 38.06 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 38.06 217 | 38.06 217 | 38.06 217
218 Robert Morris AA = 37.72 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 37.72 218 | 37.72 218 | 37.72 218
219 Cornell AA = 37.08 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 37.08 219 | 37.08 219 | 37.08 219
220 Hampton AA = 36.92 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 36.92 220 | 36.92 220 | 36.92 220
College Football 2014 Starting Ratings
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.12] [ 3.12] [ 3.12] [ 3.12]
221 Houston Baptist AA = 36.80 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 36.80 221 | 36.80 221 | 36.80 221
222 Charlotte AA = 36.33 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 36.33 222 | 36.33 222 | 36.33 222
223 Alcorn State AA = 36.12 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 36.12 223 | 36.12 223 | 36.12 223
224 Austin Peay AA = 36.07 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 36.07 224 | 36.07 224 | 36.07 224
225 Central Connecticut AA = 35.80 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 35.80 225 | 35.80 225 | 35.80 225
226 Wagner AA = 35.42 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 35.42 226 | 35.42 226 | 35.42 226
227 Bryant AA = 35.28 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 35.28 227 | 35.28 227 | 35.28 227
228 Jackson State AA = 34.95 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 34.95 228 | 34.95 228 | 34.95 228
229 Butler AA = 34.90 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 34.90 229 | 34.90 229 | 34.90 229
230 Prairie View A&M AA = 34.76 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 34.76 230 | 34.76 230 | 34.76 230
College Football 2014 Starting Ratings
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.12] [ 3.12] [ 3.12] [ 3.12]
231 NC Central AA = 34.52 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 34.52 231 | 34.52 231 | 34.52 231
232 Drake AA = 34.02 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 34.02 232 | 34.02 232 | 34.02 232
233 Florida A&M AA = 33.91 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 33.91 233 | 33.91 233 | 33.91 233
234 Saint Francis-Pa. AA = 33.85 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 33.85 234 | 33.85 234 | 33.85 234
235 Georgetown AA = 33.68 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 33.68 235 | 33.68 235 | 33.68 235
236 Mercer AA = 33.37 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 33.37 236 | 33.37 236 | 33.37 236
237 Presbyterian College AA = 31.06 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 31.06 237 | 31.06 237 | 31.06 237
238 Ark.-Pine Bluff AA = 30.94 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 30.94 238 | 30.94 238 | 30.94 238
239 Marist AA = 30.87 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 30.87 239 | 30.87 239 | 30.87 239
240 Morgan State AA = 30.47 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 30.47 240 | 30.47 240 | 30.47 240
College Football 2014 Starting Ratings
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.12] [ 3.12] [ 3.12] [ 3.12]
241 Columbia AA = 30.46 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 30.46 241 | 30.46 241 | 30.46 241
242 VMI AA = 29.49 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 29.49 242 | 29.49 242 | 29.49 242
243 Miss. Valley State AA = 27.86 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 27.86 243 | 27.86 243 | 27.86 243
244 Alabama A&M AA = 25.56 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 25.56 244 | 25.56 244 | 25.56 244
245 Texas Southern AA = 25.32 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 25.32 245 | 25.32 245 | 25.32 245
246 Savannah State AA = 24.37 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 24.37 246 | 24.37 246 | 24.37 246
247 Campbell AA = 24.17 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 24.17 247 | 24.17 247 | 24.17 247
248 Morehead State AA = 22.83 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 22.83 248 | 22.83 248 | 22.83 248
249 Grambling State AA = 21.95 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 21.95 249 | 21.95 249 | 21.95 249
250 Stetson AA = 16.42 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 16.42 250 | 16.42 250 | 16.42 250
College Football 2014 Starting Ratings
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.12] [ 3.12] [ 3.12] [ 3.12]
251 Davidson AA = 13.81 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 13.81 251 | 13.81 251 | 13.81 251
252 Valparaiso AA = 8.52 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 8.52 252 | 8.52 252 | 8.52 252

[bluejacket]

Only play the full scholarship teams. The rest aren't worth the risks. Georgetown is the only exception, because they are a well known brand, a nationally recognized university, play in a 60 scholarship conference, and might give a slight boost in fan excitement. That said, they should be avoided unless all the other options are exhausted. We should also only play them if they are willing to come play us at home. Their Multi-Sport Field makes Charleston Southern look good.