A Sea Of Red

@ NC State
vs Robert Morris
vs JMU
@ Lehigh
vs Kentucky Wesleyan

These first 5 games will be very challenging, and will determine if we have any chance at an at-large if we were to again, God-forbid, not win the auto bid. In order to have a realistic shot at an at large we have to go at least 3-2. I don't believe that will be enough though. I think we have to go 4-1 to have a real shot if we were to lose the auto bid. 5-0, and I think we'd be all but guaranteed an at-large if we shot ourselves in the foot in conference play.

I think 4-1 is a possibility. I think we can pip JMU at home this year (especially if the weather is a LOT nicer), and Lehigh could not score against a quality defense last year (1-3 record last year vs Top 25 teams and only scored more than 14 points once including getting shut out by Villanova), not to mention, they only have one offensive lineman over 290 Lbs, which means they will probably have to double on Asa which will open up opportunities for other linemen or linebackers to get into the backfield. NC State is a longshot even if they are breaking in new pieces this year. I think keeping out heads in the game will be even MORE important if we beat NC State. REmember last year, we beat Ball State, were flying high, and then laid an egg against Robert Morris (even though we only lost by 7).

BuryYourDuke wrote:I also think 4-1 is a real possibility. However, my rational belief at this point is that we will go 3-2.

+1

until we beat JMU its hard for me to believe we will. We have arguably been better then JMU the past couple of years and have still lost to them. Call me a skeptic but I don't know what would make this year different. I hope I am wrong, but 3-2 is what I see as well

JMU has had our number every year in every sport. It's gotten real old. Last spring our baseball team was taking them to the woodshed, then they came back and won in a very high scoring game. So stupid. Their reign of dominance is over. It starts with football. If we go 3-2 it will not be because of a loss to that team from Harrisonburg.

My optimism says 4-1. But the wounds say 3-2.

Harrisonburg pretty...Harrisonburg...I think the biggest thing that has plagued us against the Dukes the last couple games (something that was certainly exacerbated in the game two years ago) is the running game. Be interesting to se how Aldreakis does after being out last year but if we can get a two or three headed monster going, that will open up the offense, and if the defense plays as good as they have shown they can, we will get them this year

I know it's Harrisonburg... we all get a couple typos here and there... right?

I too think we'll go 3-2. I can see us going 4-1 but I think it depends on how NC State flows. It's just hard to be level headed going into the season.

BuryYourDuke wrote:Also, eliminate the mental breakdown that inevitably leads to a big play. Hopefully our new dynamic duo at CB will eliminate that tendency.

That certainly will help...and if nothing else, having them both in practice will push our CBs who have been in the program even further...healthy competition is good for that sometimes

Definite win:
Kentucky Wesleyan
Robert Morris (say what you want, but we're not losing to these guys again, and not at home)
2-0

Toss ups:
JMU
@ Lehigh
We have to win at least 1 of these, and hopefully we can get both. I think we will beat JMU. Lehigh will be tough, and I think the team will take them lightly. Plus it's 1pm, our first afternoon game of the year, and after a long bus trip. That's always been a recipe for a loss.

Underdog:
@ NC State
I've picked us to win this game, but I obviously wouldn't be surprised if we lost. A win here would definitely put is in the drivers seat to make the playoffs.

I'll say 4-1 but wouldn't be shocked for 3-2. I would be dissapointed if we're 3-2 or worse.

We're not driving to Lehigh.

Not to mention the fact that Lehigh did go to the FCS playoffs last year...and beat Northern Iowa in THEIR BUILDING!

SuperJon wrote:We're not driving to Lehigh.

Oh. Excuse me. I don't know everything like you do.

Everything else still stands.

manson...why in the name of ALL THAT IS SANE, HOLY, REASONABLE and PROPER would you expect the team to take lightly a team that a) made the playoffs in 2010 b) beat a team that only a few years ago was playing for a national championship and c) beat said team ON THE ROAD??

It's only human nature to not bring 110% every week. You know they will bring 110% for NC State. They will for RMU as well because it's the home opener and revenge for last year. Then JMU, of course they will. So, after those 3, Lehigh on the road is sort of "blah."

Plus, do you really think most of the guys on the team know that the team they beat in the playoffs was playing for the national 'ship a few years ago?

If youre Lehigh, Im sure that was something that their coach made note of as they prepared to match up with them (them being UNI) last year.

I too am optimistic on a 4-1 record and even better at 5-0. If we can catch NCSt off guard b/c they may take us a little light -remember we almost beat (I think a nationally ranked) WVa team a couple of years ago, slam RM, and take it to JMU (even winning by one point here would really be same as 21 since it would be a huge confidence booster), then this would set us up for Lehigh after riding high the first three games. By winning three (as two would be tough games) out of the first three will set the tone for a possible 5-0 record. Having Kent. Wesleyan as the fifth game would allow us to possible rest some starters sometime in the game before we start conference play the following week

Welcome to the board, Flame On!

NC State is a longshot for us as I said above...but I do think that if we catch them looking past us to their ACC opener against Wake Forest next week we could steal that one. The important thing is if we DO pull off that upset, we have to keep on the gas going into next week against RMU. That game being the home opener should help. JMU is definitely the one we have to have of the first three. Get a win there over an in state FCS rival (and team from one of the FCS "power conferences") and we very well could go 5-0. As I said, I think 4-1 is more of a possibility but if things fall just the right way, we could be 5-0 going into Boiling Springs.

heart - 5-0
head - 4-1
history -3-2

BigAl57 wrote:heart - 5-0
head - 4-1
history -3-2

Well said BigAl

No offense all, but Liberty did not "almost beat" West Virginia. It was close for a half, but it was 23-10 in the third quarter and WVU was moving the ball at will. Liberty was not a play or two away from winning that game.

Unless those 2-3 plays were pick-6 events.

flamerbob wrote:

BigAl57 wrote:heart - 5-0
head - 4-1
history (Bad gut feeling) -3-2

Well said BigAl

+100

Perfectly put.

Thanks, Sly Fox for the welcome. Actually, I have a student at LU (her third year coming up) and one that will go to LU shortly and thanks, Chris on the correction on the WVa game - I forgot about the second half getting away from us.

I do think that Rocco will do everything possible to win at NCSt short of showing everything in the playbook so early in the season. But with them obviously keying on and trying to shutdown Brown and Summers -as their names will be hyped up with all the press they are getting, then the other key offensive players (Allen, Kelly, Holloway, Barnett, etc.) and play calling will take on critical roles to keep things mixed up. We have the talent, just can't allow a letdown that seems to bite us.

It all depends on the right balance and execution to keep the defenses off guard. I feel that the "D" will be ready and especially looking forward on watching how some teams will more than likely double team Asa, which should open some routes for LB and DB blitzes-should be exciting to watch and could be some game changers.