A Sea Of Red

Just my 2 cents related to previous (and a few recent) postings. I think it is important to recognize Rocco has always been on the defensive side of the ball, hence, he is very involved. He has hired men he has worked with over the years and trusts. I believe the defensive staff and Rocco work well together.
Clark, Ake, Belin and Roberts are all capable of running the defense. Over the 5yrs Rocco has been HC at LU he is 12th in FCS in scoring defense (the most important measure of defensive success). 12th out of 120 FCS programs, top 10%. Now before we start calling for firings, shakeups and reassignments let’s try to at least know what we are trying to improve on and the experience and chemistry involved with this staff.

Top Scoring Defenses in FCS last 5 years
1. Penn 15.5 pts
2. Prairie View 16.9 pts
3. SC State 17.3 pts
4. Harvard 17.7 pts
5. Montana 17.9 pts
6. N. Iowa 18.2 pts
7. Dayton 18.3 pts
8. Albany 18.6 pts
9. Yale 18.8 pts
10. Richmond 18.9 pts
11. JMU 19.1 pts
12. Liberty 19.2 pts
13. Drake 19.4 pts
14. Robert Morris 19.7 pts
15. Hampton 19.8 pts

Great stats, taken at face value. But they can be greatly distorted by our competition. In those 5 years, we have given up:
7 points to a 1-10 St Francis
7 points to a 2-9 VMI
10 points to a 4-7 NC Central
10 points to a D2
27 points! to a D2
14 points to 2 other D2s
Shut out a D2
7 points to a D2
Shut out a 0-11 Savannah St

Those games greatly weigh into our 19.2 average.

But when it was all on the line last year we gave up 45 points to a 6-5 CCU which cost us a playoff spot.

When it was all on the line 2 years ago we gave up 36 points to a 6-5 SBU which cost us a playoff spot.

We couldn’t keep Presbyterian or Lafayette under 30, and both of those games cost us a shot at the playoffs in 2008.

If we played in the CAA, the 19.2 would be wonderful. But playing in the Big South and against 7 D2 teams during those 5 years, I’m not as impressed.

completely agree with Manson, we eat up the scrubs and have been burned by the above average teams

I'm not meaning to be rude, but abstract stuff like this doesn't matter. Games aren't played on paper. They're played on the field.

Either our defense can't stop the opposition (2009 at Stony Brook), or the defense does the job but the offense can't (2010 at JMU). No stat guessing game will solve that.

whats the one thing in common in three of those instances manson mentioned...?



Theyre road games. The one anomaly in there is Lafayette (one of only two losses at home in the last four seasons), but in the case of Stony Brook, Presbyterian and Coastal...those were away from the friendly Williams Stadium turf. This year we get JMU, as well as a 2010 playoff team in Robert Morris at home. All of our "WTF" games have been away games so if we can get over our road malaise, that certainly will help things.

If you truly take the numbers at face value then they are relevant. Its not 12th in the nation just against D2 teams or just against CAA teams or just against Big South Teams. Its 12th against ALL teams. Just like every other team on the list if you looked at there schedules in past years will also have D2 teams, some D1 teams, some non confrence FCS schools, some odd ball games (like our Presby game), etc....Thats why its called an average. When you look at it from that point its pretty darn good. (Maybe I did learn something in that stats class!)

Have been meaning to get back here. uschen11, you beat me to it, agree. Most FCS schools play D2 teams. ie, top 2 in the nation- Eastern Washington played Central Washington 35-32, note the 32 points given up. #2 Delaware plays West Chester every year....

I am not a fan of stats and football, it doesn't paint the entire picture, unless it is Win/Lose.
If your offense is going 3 and out every series, I would imagine your defense may be on the field more and have more stats than any other team, including interceptions, fumbles, sacks... If your defense is awesome and forces everyone else to 3 and out, then your offense has more chances, better field position... and a running vs passing team will look different... and a running team may have very few passing yards or passing TDs.. then there is the kicking game, red zone and end of game play...or you could JAM on the stats with weak teams, and then get slammed by good teams... and it even outs. For years it seemed like the Steelers offensive went 3 and out, and they won games with their defense and kicking game...
I favor the WIN/LOSE stat.....