[BJWilliams]

With the only Liberty athletes in action being three of our track athletes, Many of us are looking toward the fall of 2011 and the start of a new season for football. So I thought that Id be "that guy" and open up a discussion where we project just how we do this year...and here's mine:

09/03 - 6:00 PM - @ N.C. State Liberty has shown that they can play well with I-A/FBS teams. The Flames have not lost by more than 13 points to an FBS school since 2006 (Danny Rocco's first year). With the change at QB for the Pack I think that LU has a chance for an upset here if they can keep them from running the ball. I'll pick a loss here but itll be a close one NCSU 31 LU 24
09/10 - 7:00 PM - Robert Morris The Flames lost up in PA on a late touchdown and will be looking to avenge that loss in front of a no doubt raucous Williams Stadium crowd. LU hasnt lost a home opener since 2002 and has scored at least 40 points in the last 9 home games...I think LU gets a solid win here LU 42 RMU 28
09/17 - 7:00 PM - James Madison Last time these two teams played in Lynchburg was probably one of the wettest games in recent memory save the St Pauls game in 2006. These two teams have played close games in both previous meetings and more of the same is expected here. JMU has given the Flames their only other home loss in the last three seasons (the other being Lafayette in 2008). I'll call an LU win but itll be a defensive struggle once again LU 17 JMU 13
09/24 - 12:30 PM - @ Lehigh This is the last game in a key opening stretch for Liberty. a win here probably sets up a pretty good OOC resume to show to the selection committee when it comes to an at-large bid (although Im sure LU is tired of sharing at this point) I'll call an LU win but in another close game Liberty 24 Lehigh 21
10/01 - 7:00 PM - Kentucky Wesleyan Liberty hasnt lost to a sub Division I team in a very long time (when precisely escapes me at the moment)...that wont change this weekend LU 54 KWC 10
10/08 - 6:00 PM - @ Gardner-Webb Liberty has won the last 4 meetings by an average of 25 points. The Runnin Bulldogs have a new coach and with it a new attitude. I expect a good game but LU pulls away late LU 35 G-W 21
10/15 - 3:30 PM - Coastal Carolina (Homecoming) Coastal spoiled LU's chance to crash the playoff party last year with a solid win in Conway. After the last loss to the Chants, LU ran off three straight wins, two by double digits. CCU hasnt won in Lynchburg since 2005. If this game is anything like the 2009 meeting, this one will be over by the end of the third quarter. I look for a good game though with LU coming out on top to please the alumni in town LU 42 CCU 34
10/22 - 1:30 PM - @ Charleston Southern The Bucs have had their share of up and down seasons...usually with more down than up..after winning two of three to open 2010, CSU lost their next 6 games...all by double figures. But the last time these two met in Charleston, the Bucs were one pass inside the red zone away from forcing overtime. LU wins this one but I expect another close game LU 28 CSU 24
10/29 - 3:30 PM - Presbyterian While the Blue Hose have given the Flames fits down in Clinton (including a 31-28 upset win in Clinton in 2008 which Flames fans are still seething over), it hasnt been that close in Lynchburg. LU has won both previous meetings inside Williams Stadium by an average of 35 points (including a 55-19 shellacking in 2009). If the same team that lost by only 10 last year shows up, this could be a good game...if its the same team that showed up in 2009...not even William Wallace can save them...LU 35 PC 21
11/05 - 3:30 PM - VMI The Keydets went through some growing pains adjusting from a triple option offense winning three games and reaching double figures in only four total. The Roos havent won in Lynchburg since 2005 and the one time they cracked 20 points in the last three meetings on LU's home turf (2007), LU nearly set a school record for points in a game (73). In fact, in the four meetings between the two in Lynchburg, VMI has only scored 20 or more points twice: 2003 and 2007...they lost both times. I dont expect a result like 2009 here but the Flames win solidly LU 35 VMI 17
11/12 - ........... - Bye
11/19 - 1:00 PM - @ Stony Brook This is THE game in conference this year for Liberty...last time these two met on Long Island, the Seawolves sunk the Flames with a late TD and forged a tie for the Big South in the last season before the conference received an automatic bid to the playoffs. If LU has a performance in the whole game like they had in the second half in Lynchburg last season, there wont be any late heroics...just LU hoisting the Big South trophy for the fifth straight year and first time outright since 2008. LU takes this one in a shootout LU 49 SBU 46

[NG33]

I hope I'm wrong, but after seeing what has happened these past 3 years I can't help but be pessimistic. The Homer in me wants to say 10-1, but I say we go 7-4 with losses to NC State, JMU, Lehigh and Stony Brook.

[jcmanson]

@ NC State – I’m sticking with my pick in this game. I think we spring the upset. Our offense is loaded. Defense has a shut down corner we’ve lacked recently. NC State will overlook us, plus they’re breaking in a new QB. The game will be decided in the 4th, and like I said I’m sticking with my pick of us winning. 1-0

Robert Morris – Payback game. Plus RMU has lost a bit from last year. We won’t overlook them this year. Win. 2-0

JMU – Of course this will be a huge test. We will likely set a new attendance record close to 20k. MB & CS will be the best 2 players on the field. That plus JMU’s lack of a passing game will put us over the top. Win. 3-0

@ Lehigh – They’re pretty good. Should win the Patriot League. They will be amped up for us much like RMU last year. This game will also be decided in the 4th quarter. I’ll say Lehigh gets it. Loss. 3-1

KY Wes – A good bye week after the opening stretch. Win 4-1

@ GW – this will be a tough game. GW always plays good until late October and November. In the end, we are just too talented. Win. 5-1, 1-0

Coastal – They will be good and this will be a tough game. Homecoming and us at home puts us over the top. Win. 6-1, 2-0

@ CSU – Yeah we win. 7-1, 3-0

Presby – See @ CSU. 8-1, 4-0

VMI – They just don’t have the horses to run with us. Especially at the Bill. Win. 9-1, 5-0

@ SBU – Again the conference title will be decided on Long Island. We are better than them. We were better than them in 2009. I think we actually prove it this time. Win. 10-1, 6-0.

Conference Champs. Auto bid. Finish season in top 5. Get first round bye. No seed. Play the round of 16 playoffs at home. Win. Play @ a seed in round of 8. Lose. Finish season 11-2.

Lefty and TDDance ask for Tom Clark to become Head Coach after Rocco jumps to Wake Forest.

[jcmanson]

Here's a preseason All-American list:

FIRST TEAM
QB DeAndre Presley, Appalachian State, Sr., 5-10, 180
RB Nate Eachus, Colgate, Sr., 5-10, 216
RB Jonathan Grimes, William & Mary, Sr., 5-10, 201
FB Eric Breitenstein, Wofford, Sr., 5-11, 225
WR Chris Summers, Liberty, Sr., 6-4, 210
WR Brian Quick, Appalachian State, Sr., 6-5, 220
WR Brandon Kaufman, Eastern Washington, Jr., 6-5, 205
TE David Duran, Coastal Carolina, Sr., 6-5, 240
C Chris Powers, Eastern Washington, Sr., 6-2, 270
OG J.C. Oram, Weber State, Sr., 6-4, 310
OG Gino Gradkowski, Delaware, Sr., 6-4, 294
OT Tom Compton, South Dakota, Sr., 6-6, 308
OT Jeff Adams, Columbia, Sr., 6-7, 305

SECOND TEAM
QB Mike Brown, Liberty, Sr., 6-0, 205
RB Mike Mayhew, North Carolina A&T, Sr., 5-10, 205
RB D.J. McNorton, North Dakota State, Sr., 5-10, 203
FB Kendall Gaskins, Richmond, Jr., 6-1, 230
WR Norman White, Villanova, Sr., 6-3, 215
WR Joel Bradford, Chattanooga, Sr., 6-0, 165
WR Aaron Mellette, Elon, Jr., 6-3, 211
TE Shadrae King, Robert Morris, Sr., 6-3, 225
C Natiel Curry, Bethune-Cookman, Sr., 6-2, 280
OG D.J. Hall, Texas State, Sr., 6-3, 300
OG James Dekle, Prairie View A&M, Sr., 6-1, 293
OT Brett Moore, Georgia Southern, Sr., 6-3, 253
OT David Pickard, Southern Illinois, Sr., 6-5, 300


DEFENSE

FIRST TEAM
DE Mario Kurn, San Diego, Sr., 6-2, 220
DE Ben Obaseki, Indiana State, Jr., 6-3, 235
DT Brent Russell, Georgia Southern, Jr., 6-2, 287
DT Renard Williams, Eastern Washington, Sr., 6-2, 300
LB Tyler Holmes, UMASS, Sr., 6-0, 220
LB Matt Evans, New Hampshire, Jr., 6-0, 233
LB A.J. Storms, Idaho State, Sr., 6-0, 215
LB Derek Rose, Northwestern State, Jr., 5-11, 225
CB Trumaine Johnson, Montana, Sr., 6-3, 199
CB Ryan Steed, Furman, Sr., 5-11, 186
S Tyler Brock, Southeast Missouri State, Jr., 6-3, 195
S Malcolm Bronson, McNeese State, Jr., 5-11, 188

SECOND TEAM
DE Brian McNally, New Hampshire, Sr., 6-3, 258
DE Ameet Pall, Wofford, Sr., 6-0, 245
DT Ben Boothby, Northern Iowa, Sr., 6-0, 280
DT Asa Chapman, Liberty, Sr., 6-5, 380
LB Kadarron Anderson, Furman, Sr., 6-1, 236
LB Mike Groome, Lehigh, Sr., 6-3, 240
LB Keith Pough, Howard, Jr., 6-3, 235
LB Jer’ryan Harris, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Soph., 6-1, 215
CB B.W. Webb, William & Mary, Jr., 5-11, 175
CB Laron Scott, Georgia Southern, Sr., 5-9, 173
S KeJuan Riley, Alabama State, Jr., 6-0, 182
S Matt Johnson, Eastern Washington, Sr., 6-2, 220


SPECIAL TEAMS

FIRST TEAM
K Matt Bevins, Liberty, Sr., 6-2, 185
P David Harrington, Idaho State, Sr., 6-3, 185
KR Gralyn Crawford, Stephen F. Austin, Jr., 5-10, 175
PR Tavoy Moore, Idaho State, Sr., 5-7, 195

SECOND TEAM
K Jason Cunningham, Montana State, Sr., 6-1, 162
P Jonathan Plisco, Old Dominion, Jr., 6-0, 220
KR Jeremy Caldwell, Eastern Kentucky, Sr., 5-10, 183
PR Dontrell Johnson, Murray State, Sr., 5-11, 180

Notice who are the 2 teams with the most players selected. I say we're in good company. There's a reason why I was picking us to win a National Championship this year. I toned that down some after a subpar 2010, but we have the talent.

[LUnpretty11]

Manson I agreed with pretty much everything... then I saw the last of your post and got quite depressed haha.

Alright:
@NC State: We win. I thought we'd beat WVU, and we were close. I knew we'd beat BSU last year, and we did. I'm pretty confident we shock them in front of their home crowd, but I don't think their coaching staff is over looking us. They know the success Rocco has had against FBS opponents, so they'll try and get their players ready. Brown and Summers have a day, and Aikens gets a pick 6. 1-0

Bob Morrith: We win. Big. I'm talking 5 TD's big. Like Beej said the place will be bumpin and we dominate. No contest. 2-0

GAYMU: I hate them more than any school sooo... We win. They have no offense. Amazing defense, but we have an amazing offense, so we'll take care of business at home (and I'll go a step further than manson) in front of a crowd of 22k+. Liberty knows JMU, and the Lynchburg community does to. People will show up... plus they travel well. 3-0

@Lehigh: We lose. Away games before 3PM have been catastrophic for our team over the last 5 years. 3-1

KY Wes: We lose. Kidding. 4-1

@GW: We win. Tough road game though... not sure why but I don't feel like we'll stroll by them. 5-1.

CCU: We win. By 2-3 TD's. 6-1

@CSU: We lose. I think this is our choke game. They played us well for the 1st half of last years game at our place. They'll play us well at their crapshoot of a stadium. Everyone on the board goes into a panic. 6-2

Presby: We win. No contest here. 7-2

VMI: We win. They are REALLY struggling. We dominated at their place... we have a better team this year, plus we're home. No contest. 8-2

@Brook: We win. I really don't feel confident about that though... I really feel like we could easily lose this game. Something about in conference road games just really scare me. 9-2

We host a playoff game or two... just because we can with our nice stadium. I say we end up winning the National Championship.... That makes us 13-2, right?.... c'mon... let me dream.

[jcmanson]

NC State's coaches won't overlook us. Coaches never do. Their players will. Look at us and RMU last year. Rocco tried to way overhype them. Didn't work.

[LUnpretty11]

NC State's coaches won't overlook us. Coaches never do. Their players will. Look at us and RMU last year. Rocco tried to way overhype them. Didn't work.

+1

[jbock13]

Pretty much agree with BJ, however I will predict a JMU and Lehigh loss.

[BJWilliams]

Pretty much agree with BJ, however I will predict a JMU and Lehigh loss.

so if you agree with me save those two youre expecting 8-3?

[jbock13]

Pretty much agree with BJ, however I will predict a JMU and Lehigh loss.

so if you agree with me save those two youre expecting 8-3?

Yes. NC State will be the other loss.

I think we have a better shot beating JMU than we do Lehigh. I don't think RMU will have what it takes this year. We certainly won't have our guard down this time.

Your predicted scores for the games that I agree with I think are pretty spot on. To be picky, I'd shave 10 points off each side for SBU, and I think we'll lose by 10-17 to NC State. (even though I'd be more than happy to be wrong about the latter )

[BJWilliams]

As a follow up to my post, the last time LU lost to a sub-Div I program...1993

[BJWilliams]

I must say that I am surprised that none of our resident PC lurkers havent had something to say about my predictions for the PC game this year or something...

[thepostman]

BJ you are always too optimistic for my liking...but I think we lose NC State, Lehigh and one in conference game simply because until this program proves they can make it a season without losing a game we should win I won't buy it...

We are good enough to go 10-1 and probably should...but we never seem to be as good as we should be, so 8-3 seems more realistic

[RVAparks]

This is a tough one... My heart says 9-2 but my head says 8-3. I think we'll lose to NCSU, Lehigh, and get tripped up by a conference opponent.

If we do somehow beat NCSU, it'll be interesting to see if there is a hangover with Robert Morris coming to town the next week.

Pizza Hut Park HERE WE COME! haha

[BJWilliams]

BJ you are always too optimistic for my liking...but I think we lose NC State, Lehigh and one in conference game simply because until this program proves they can make it a season without losing a game we should win I won't buy it...

We are good enough to go 10-1 and probably should...but we never seem to be as good as we should be, so 8-3 seems more realistic

Maybe, but I figured after the past few years Id moderate my predictions even though I still pick us going 10-1. the only real "outlandish" score I have is the Kentucky Wesleyan game and that is because...well...we frankly should be pounding those teams into the turf. As I said either here or in another discussion, that opening stretch of four games really will I think set the tone for the season. a 3-1 or 4-0 record coming out of the Lehigh game will really give us enough momentum I think to win out. a 2-2 or 1-3 record (or dare I say...0-4) and we could be looking at a real long season

[BJWilliams]

So I was looking at JMU's schedule the last two years and I noticed that after beating Liberty, their season has gone to pot...in 2009, after they won in the monsoon, they lost 4 games in a row. In 2010, after beating us in Harrisonburg, they lost 5 of 6 (and had to win the last two just to clinch a winning season).

[TDDance234]

@NCState - As much as I'd love to see the Flames pull one out here, just won't happen. (0-1)

RMU - Sticking with my gut, these are the typical games we've lost in the past few years. (0-2)

JMU - We gave them a run the last two years. If we have any type of running game going, we'll win here. Sadly, I don't like our chances. (0-3)

@Lehigh - Agree w/ Manson on Lehigh being a tough team. I don't think we'll allow ourselves to lose 4 straight here though and we squeak one out on the road. (1-3)

KYW - No arguments here. Easy win. (2-3)

GW, Costal, CSU, Presby and VMI - Wins. (7-3)

@ SBU - Just can't see it happening. SBU will be good; and will be in position to win the conference here. (7-4)

...and no, I will not be calling for Tom Clark.

[BJWilliams]

If this was on the road I may agree with your prediction on RMU but LU has shown that it is nearly impossible for a team to come into Williams Stadium and leave with a win...after going 4-2 in Coach Rocco's first season, we have lost two home games TOTAL in the last four seasons (JMU in 09 and Lafayette in 08) and the games really have not been close:

2007
Tusculum (38-14
Shippensburg (35-14)
St Francis (PA) (68-10)
Presbyterian (48-14)
Coastal Carolina (37-24)
VMI (73-34)

2008
North Greenville (49-10)
Glenville State (44-27)
Stony Brook (33-0)
Lafayette (21-35)
Charleston Southern (42-0)
Gardner-Webb (30-10)
Elon (26-3)

2009
North Carolina Central (35-10)
James Madison (10-24)
West Virginia Wesleyan (45-7)
Coastal Carolina (58-13)
Presbyterian (55-19)
VMI (54-14)

I'll add last year in a bit but my point is that this is not a team that will lose at home.

[Schfourteenteen]

Please narrow that stat to ranked teams and its not that "impossible"

[jbock13]

I'm confident we'll beat RMU. This team remembers what happened last year.

[LUnpretty11]

... This team remembers what happened last year.

I don't think they do....

[LUaddict]

... This team remembers what happened last year.

I don't think they do....

What makes you say that?

[BJWilliams]

Please narrow that stat to ranked teams and its not that "impossible"

We have only played ranked teams at home twice in the last four seasons. Elon 2008 (win 26-3) and JMU 2009 (loss 24-10) Lafayette wasnt ranked at the time we played them

[thepostman]

BJ those stats aren't very fair..yes we have had great success at home but the competition hasn't been top notch...the top notch games at home would be in my opinion Coastal in '07 (Win), Lafayette in '08 (loss), Elon in '08 (win), JMU in '09 (loss) and not much to note last season...that is 2-2 at home against quality opponents against teams I believe we were better then...that is not exactly being dominate at home.

I love LU and I know both you and I have gone through the bad times and the good times with this program and I am thankful for the wins, but at this point we need to win those games against decent programs when we play them at home to become a truly dominate team at home...until then we can't really hang out hat on the wins we have had at home.

[TH Spangler]

Pretty much agree with BJ, however I will predict a JMU and Lehigh loss.

I think this will be the year Liberty knocks off JMU ..... but, IM worried about the team not getting up enough for a "very good" Lehigh squad?

A NC State upset and a win over JMU could leave the guys physically & emotionally drained, or just over confident for the Lehigh game?

Am I forgetting something .....Oh ... I forgot Robert Morris, lets not do that .... again

Any way you look at the first four games are tough