[jcmanson]

http://www.mynewsadvance.com/index.php/ ... tion_time/

BIG SOUTH
Projected standings
Team…................................Conf…..Overall
Liberty…...............................6-0…....9-2
Gardner-Webb…....................4-2…....6-5
Coastal Carolina….................4-2…....5-6
Stony Brook….......................4-2…....5-6
Charleston Southern…...........2-4….....4-7
VMI…...................................1-5….....2-9
Presbyterian….......................0-6…....1-10
AUTO BID: Liberty
AT-LARGE ELIGIBLE: None

Breakdown
Liberty would be the only team with something approaching an at-large profile should the Flames falter in league play, but I don’t think they’ll have much of a shot at all at 8-3. Had they knocked off James Madison or Robert Morris, they might have gotten a look at 9-2.

[jcmanson]

updated

http://www.mynewsadvance.com/index.php/ ... ons_10_24/

[Cider Jim]

Thanks, Manson. Lang's prediction (if we can get past Presby, G-W, Stony):

First round
South Carolina State (9-2) at Liberty (9-2)

[Chris Lang]

This week's update:

http://www.mynewsadvance.com/index.php/ ... ons_10_31/

[PAmedic]

* BIG SOUTH—Only three teams remain realistically alive in the auto-bid race. Liberty finishes with two out of three at home, where it hasn’t lost in conference since October 2006. The Flames’ road game is at Coastal Carolina, which probably has to win out and hope Stony Brook loses twice. I really have no idea who wins a three-way tiebreaker if all three finish with one loss. I’ll ask Big South media relations maven Mark Simpson about it Tuesday on the coaches conference call. Liberty and Stony Brook are the two teams that control their destinies. If either wins out, they win the bid.

glad I'm not the only one that was confused about that.

[Rooster Cogburn]

I really hope Lang is right and we get RMU here. That would be awesome, but I'm still not sure the committe would give us a re-run. Anyway, still have 3 games to win first.

[Chris Lang]

Committee would have no choice but to give you a re-run. It's in their playoff handbook. Any schools within 400 miles of each other will be paired. RMU is about 350 miles away. They're not going to force teams to take flights if they don't have to.

[jcmanson]

Lang, what's your thinking on LU's chances of getting a first round bye?

[Sly Fox]

If we win out then I are think our chances are relatively decent. Then again the committee has shown absolutely minor regard for the Big South historically so I would assume if we were on the fence then we'd fall into the opening round.

[Rooster Cogburn]

But...Our declining SOS and Sagarin rankings aren't helping!

[Chris Lang]

Lang, what's your thinking on LU's chances of getting a first round bye?

If the committee is as true to the GPI as they seem to be, not good. Liberty's not going to move up much in the GPI due to the poor strength of schedule down the stretch.

[jcmanson]

Lang, what's your thinking on LU's chances of getting a first round bye?

If the committee is as true to the GPI as they seem to be, not good. Liberty's not going to move up much in the GPI due to the poor strength of schedule down the stretch.

That's my thinking as well. I'm just hoping we'll be in the top 10 in the coaches and TSN poll by then which would at least give us something for them to consider.

[jcmanson]

http://www.mynewsadvance.com/index.php/ ... ions_11_7/

FIRST ROUND
Robert Morris (9-1) at Liberty (9-2)
Lehigh (9-2) at Massachusetts (7-4)
Western Illinois (7-4) at Cal Poly (8-3)
Montana State (8-3) at North Dakota State (8-3)

[jcmanson]

Lang, you have 'Nova losing to Delaware which would put them at 7-4 - you think they get a first round bye at 7-4?

[Chris Lang]

Yeah, I'm kind of waffling on who would get the bye in that scenario -- Villanova or Massachusetts. If it ends up being UMass, then that would change the first-round matchups because you can avoid the rematches and have RMU at Nova and Lehigh at Liberty.

'Nova would have beaten two league champions (Penn and Lehigh) but wouldn't have beaten any of the CAA's other playoff teams.

UMass would have beaten William & Mary, and the Minutemen's worst loss would be to Richmond at home, where 'Nova's would be to Rhode Island on the road.

Of course, those two miss each other in the CAA this year.

The more I think about it, I could see the case swinging in UMass' favor.

[jcmanson]

Yeah, I have the two switched. Although it's a tough call.

And the more I think about it the more I think Bethune Cookman does get the bye if they win out.

[jcmanson]

http://www.mynewsadvance.com/index.php/ ... ons_11_14/

Lang's updated his predictions. He has SBU beating us.

And Jacksonville getting in as the last at large. If we win, would the committee take Jacksonville over us? I doubt it.