A Sea Of Red

AUTOBIDS
(1)Big Sky: Montana
(2)Colonial: Richmond
(3)MEAC: South Carolina State
(4)Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
(5)Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
(6)Patriot: Holy Cross / Lafayette – loser is out, IMO.
(7)SoCon: Elon

(8)Southland – Four teams at 3-1, 2 games on November 14 will decide the conference. McNeese State vs Texas State, Stephen F. Austin vs SE Louisiana. Below is th

Winners----Champ----AQ?
McNeese State + Stephen F. Austin----Stephen F. Austin----McNeese State.
McNeese State + SE Louisiana----McNeese State----No At Large Bid
Texas State + Stephen F. Austin----Texas State----Stephen F. Austin
Texas State + SE Louisiana----SE Louisiana----No At Large Bid


At-Large Bids "Secured"
(9)New Hampshire IN
(10)Villanova IN
(11)William & Mary IN
(12)South Dakota State IN
(13)Appalachian State IN

Probable At Large Bids
(14)Northern Iowa - 8-3 seems to be the magic number to secure a playoff spot, especially with all the losses over this past week.

(15)Southland #2 - Stephen F. Austin will probably beat SE Lousiana. This victory will secure an At Large Bid for the Southland. How it shakes up depends on the other Nov. 14 game, but 2 teams would be a lock with a SFA win.

That Last Spot

Montana State – 7-3 with WIN over MONTANA, Wins over Montana and Weber State, Losses to NAU and Eastern Washington. They control their own destiny.
Eastern Washington (7-3) / Northern Arizona (7-4) – NAU is likely out regardless, but EWU can make it with a win here. EWU would have wins over teams 4-9 in the Big Sky. The committee will also look to get two teams from the Western Conferences.
Liberty 8-2 – Win over Lafayette, Losses to James Madison and FBS West Virginia
Florida A&M 9-2 – Win over Tennessee State, Losses to SC State and FBS Miami

Other Outsiders

Massachusetts 7-4
Holy Cross with LOSS to LAFAYETTE - 9-2
Central Connecticut State 10-1 – Win over Albany, Loss to William and Mary
Colgate 10-1 with WIN over LAFAYETTE – Win over Lafayette, Loss to Holy Cross
Missouri State 7-4 with WIN over SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Illinois State 7-4
Weber State 7-4
Youngstown State 7-4
Georgia Southern 7-4

My monopoly money is on Eastern Washington getting the last spot.

My monopoly money is on EWU not even qualifying

Eastern still has tough games with Southern Utah and NAU left. Don't see them winning both. Montana State is the Big Sky's only hope for a second team, and they'll have to win out. I just don't think 7-4 is going to cut it this year.

I honestly think that UMass and FAMU will be the biggest threats. Maybe Montana State, if they somehow win out.

UMass GPI - 14. Should drop after the loss to Maine, but dag.

UMass is done. Four losses and no quality wins outside of UNH. At Maine is not a good loss this year. FAMU will have one win over a team with a winning record -- 6-5 Morgan State.

If Montana State wins out, it's in.

Anyway, my projections:

http://bit.ly/H9aW6

So the same MSU team that lost to NAU by 13 at home is going to beat the Griz at home? I know you know more about this rivalry than I do, but that just doesn't make sense.

Just a gut feeling TTL. MSU has won two of the last three games in Bozeman and neither MSU team was that great (7-4 in 05 and 7-5 in 03). A team playing at home with a playoff berth on the line against a hated rival ... I dunno. I just can see it.

If MSU falters, and Liberty gets to 9-2, the Flames will be in the conversation, because that Lafayette win looks better and better with each passing week.

I'm with Chris on this... MSU's record means nothing in this rivalry. Those two teams hate each other with a passion. (Think UNC/Duke basketball) Let's put it this way, i was out there last May, and all everyone was talking about was the UM/MSU football game in the fall (that and the Bucking Horse Sale in Missoula...lol - think mardi gras for cowboys). You've got people talking about an annual rivalry game 7 mos in advance and right in the middle of branding time for ranchers? It's one of those things where you just have to be out there to understand it. I was only out there for 2 weeks, and decided that's a game that I WILL get to before I die.

Chris Lang wrote:Just a gut feeling TTL. MSU has won two of the last three games in Bozeman and neither MSU team was that great (7-4 in 05 and 7-5 in 03). A team playing at home with a playoff berth on the line against a hated rival ... I dunno. I just can see it.

If MSU falters, and Liberty gets to 9-2, the Flames will be in the conversation, because that Lafayette win looks better and better with each passing week.

I can SEE it the same way I can SEE SBU knocking us off to end the year, but I'm not going to predict it. The Griz are a machine, and I just can't predict them getting knocked off.

AUTOBIDS
(1)Big Sky: Montana
(2)Colonial: Richmond
(3)MEAC: South Carolina State
(4)Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
(5)Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
(6)Patriot: Holy Cross / Lafayette – loser is out, IMO.
(7)SoCon: Elon
(8)Southland Champs


At-Large Bids "Secured"
(9)New Hampshire IN
(10)Villanova IN
(11)William & Mary IN
(12)South Dakota State IN

At-Large Bids Virtually Secured
(13)Appalachian State - If they lose to UTC, and then to Elon... the Apps might be in trouble. 7-4 with the best win over Furman and GSU isn't going to be very strong, and I think we get in over them in that case...

Probable At Large Bids
(14)Northern Iowa - Win and they're in. Lose to the 'Guins and they're at home watching.


Those last two spots...

Southland #2- No guarantees in this conference. I read a stat that there hasn't been a 1 loss champion in this league for a long time. There are upsets yet to come, and they could result in this SLC being a one-bid league.
Montana State – 7-3 with WIN over MONTANA, Wins over Montana and Weber State, Losses to NAU and Eastern Washington. They control their own destiny.
Eastern Washington (7-3) / Northern Arizona (7-4) – NAU is likely out regardless, but EWU can make it with a win here. EWU would have wins over teams 4-9 in the Big Sky. The committee will also look to get two teams from the Western Conferences.
Liberty 8-2 – Win over Lafayette, Losses to James Madison and FBS West Virginia
Florida A&M 9-2 – Win over Tennessee State, Losses to SC State and FBS Miami

Whether it is 1 spot or two (based on the SLC), I think this is the "list" for the last bid or bids at the moment...

MSU (games left- 11.07 @Portland St., 11.14 vs.Sacramento St., 11.21 vs.Griz)
EWU (games left- 11.14 @SUU, 11.21 @NAU)
Liberty
UMass
Weber
Colgate
FAMU
CCSU