A Sea Of Red

OK, there is no way that Liberty cruises to the playoffs. There is a strong likelihood that Liberty will be on the outside looking in when the playoffs are announced. However, in the scenario below, Liberty would probably have the best shot to claim one of 3 at-large spots in the playoffs. Crazier things have happened.

Liberty finishes strong and convincingly wins the Big South
Lafayette beats Holy Cross and Colgate and wins the Patriot League
Southern Utah eliminates UCDavis in week 9
UC Davis eliminates Cal Poly in week 10
Weber State loses to Montana in Week 9 and eliminated by Cal Poly in Week 12
Northern Iowa loses to Youngstown State in Week 10 and eliminated by Illinois State in Week 12
Eastern Kentucky loses to Kentucky in week 10 and eliminated by Jacksonville State in Week 12
Delaware loses to Navy in Week 11 and eliminated by Villanova in Week 12
Northern Arizona loses to Ole Miss in Week 10, loses to Weber State in Week 11 and eliminated by Eastern Washington in Week 12
McNeese State loses to Texas State in Week 11 and eliminated by Central Arkansas in Week 12
Furman loses to Appalachian State in Week 9 and Auburn in Week 10
Georgia Southern eliminated by Citadel in Week 12
Missouri State loses to Illinois State in Week 9 and eliminated by Southern Illinois in Week 12
Youngstown State loses to South Dakota State in Week 9 and eliminated by Illinois State in Week 11
Illinois State eliminated by Western Illinois in Week 10
Massachusetts loses to Maine in Week 9 and is eliminated by James Madison in Week 11 or Hofstra in Week 12
Hofstra is eliminated by Delaware in Week 9


Automatic Bids
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Lafayette
Southern: Elon
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

At-Large
1. New Hampshire (Colonial)
2. Villanova (Colonial)
3. William & Mary (Colonial)
4. South Dakota State (Missouri Valley)
5. Appalachian State (Southern)
6.
7.
8.


Top Remaining Qualifying teams

Liberty 8-2
Florida A&M 9-2
Holy Cross 9-2
Colgate 9-2
Albany 9-2
Central Connecticut State 10-1

That's awfully large number of dominoes to fall in just the right direction. But I see you working.

I'm pretty sure not all of that has to happen but a majority of it does. for instance. No way does EKU get an at large. the OVC is taking only the conference champ which will be EIU. so no worries about EKU unless they somehow beat Kentucky, also Cal-poly can lose one of the two games you stated and I think we'll be good to count them out. just dont see their resume being better than ours if they lose to MU and barely beat UC. And if UC Davis beats cal-poly i still don't see them getting in.

I see what you are doing though. they scenearios all playing out at the bottom would almost be a LOCK for LU to get in. mine is merely opinion.

Sly Fox wrote:That's awfully large number of dominoes to fall in just the right direction. But I see you working.

I hope I was clear in my first post that I do not expect things to work out this way. There are still four weeks of football remaining. If it did happen, Liberty would probably be the first team of the teams to get in. There is a team somewhere that may seem like they have a good shot at the playoffs right now, but they have not had their "Presby" game yet. The scenario I listed is the nuclear option that eliminates most of the bubble teams from consideration.

What do I think will happen? I think we will be the first or second team on the outside wondering what could have been if there was not a monsoon in Lynchburg on September 26th.

So using your original "perfect world" scinario, do you believe we are one of the ones taken ourt of your list. I believe they avoid us like the plague once again if that happens. We have not taken the guesswork out by beating JMU, so I just don't see them letting us in if there is any way they can prevent it.

SumItUp wrote:

Sly Fox wrote:That's awfully large number of dominoes to fall in just the right direction. But I see you working.

I hope I was clear in my first post that I do not expect things to work out this way. There are still four weeks of football remaining. If it did happen, Liberty would probably be the first team of the teams to get in. There is a team somewhere that may seem like they have a good shot at the playoffs right now, but they have not had their "Presby" game yet. The scenario I listed is the nuclear option that eliminates most of the bubble teams from consideration.

What do I think will happen? I think we will be the first or second team on the outside wondering what could have been if there was not a monsoon in Lynchburg on September 26th.

we still would have lost, but worse

Rooster Cogburn wrote:So using your original "perfect world" scenario, do you believe we are one of the ones taken ourt of your list. I believe they avoid us like the plague once again if that happens. We have not taken the guesswork out by beating JMU, so I just don't see them letting us in if there is any way they can prevent it.

We are not going to get any favors given to us. If that scenario played out, we would be first in with the remaining list of teams. That was the nuclear treatment to eliminate all teams from the autobid conferences that had a shot of being added before Liberty.

SumItUp wrote:

Rooster Cogburn wrote:So using your original "perfect world" scenario, do you believe we are one of the ones taken ourt of your list. I believe they avoid us like the plague once again if that happens. We have not taken the guesswork out by beating JMU, so I just don't see them letting us in if there is any way they can prevent it.

We are not going to get any favors given to us. If that scenario played out, we would be first in with the remaining list of teams. That was the nuclear treatment to eliminate all teams from the autobid conferences that had a shot of being added before Liberty.

Follow it now. Boy you really thought that through.

rueful wrote:

SumItUp wrote:

Sly Fox wrote:That's awfully large number of dominoes to fall in just the right direction. But I see you working.

I hope I was clear in my first post that I do not expect things to work out this way. There are still four weeks of football remaining. If it did happen, Liberty would probably be the first team of the teams to get in. There is a team somewhere that may seem like they have a good shot at the playoffs right now, but they have not had their "Presby" game yet. The scenario I listed is the nuclear option that eliminates most of the bubble teams from consideration.

What do I think will happen? I think we will be the first or second team on the outside wondering what could have been if there was not a monsoon in Lynchburg on September 26th.

we still would have lost, but worse

Please elaborate on your opinion. I want to hear the reason you feel that way.

BuryYourDuke wrote:

rueful wrote:

we still would have lost, but worse

There's no way to know that either way, but I don't believe that at all. I think JMU has proven this season that they really aren't that great of a team. I think the elements benefitted them, despite the conventional wisdom to the contrary.

they still had dudzik, and had they been able to pass more they would have passed all over us. They play terrible now because of thorpe. No we cant know for sure, but with the way things went IN the rain, im pretty sure it would have been a much larger gap in score out of the rain

Don't you think we would've been able to throw the ball a lot better in better conditions too? It wouldn't have been a blowout either way.

I just edited my original post. I forgot the Massachusetts and Hofstra dominoes.

Too many monitors, windows and spreadsheets.

rueful wrote:

SumItUp wrote:

Sly Fox wrote:That's awfully large number of dominoes to fall in just the right direction. But I see you working.

I hope I was clear in my first post that I do not expect things to work out this way. There are still four weeks of football remaining. If it did happen, Liberty would probably be the first team of the teams to get in. There is a team somewhere that may seem like they have a good shot at the playoffs right now, but they have not had their "Presby" game yet. The scenario I listed is the nuclear option that eliminates most of the bubble teams from consideration.

What do I think will happen? I think we will be the first or second team on the outside wondering what could have been if there was not a monsoon in Lynchburg on September 26th.

we still would have lost, but worse

I think rueful's got the right idea

BuryYourDuke wrote:

rueful wrote:

we still would have lost, but worse

There's no way to know that either way, but I don't believe that at all. I think JMU has proven this season that they really aren't that great of a team. I think the elements benefitted them, despite the conventional wisdom to the contrary.

Yes, you see the results and think that. But know this: JMU was the better team on the field that night. I can say that with 100% confidence. Had the game been this week? We get beat by 30+.

JMUDukes wrote:Had the game been this week? We get beat by 30+.

That is what will have us thinking "what could have been".

SumItUp wrote:

JMUDukes wrote:Had the game been this week? We get beat by 30+.

That is what will have us thinking "what could have been".

We're a different team right now, in a losing streak, a rut...

compare that to going into Liberty...rain or shine, we had just taken a BCS school (Maryland) to the limit, and smashed VMI (another BS team) at home...

one of my ol' coaches used to say...Football is 80% mental, 20% physical. and our guys were extremely confident coming into LU.

Rain or shine, we still win. All I'm saying.

OK so i'm gonna take a crack at this since i've been looking down this great research and give my humble opinion on what might and might not happen with all these dominos.


Liberty finishes strong and convincingly wins the Big South-Check

Lafayette beats Holy Cross and Colgate and wins the Patriot League- Toss up but I think its a real possibility

Southern Utah eliminates UCDavis in week 9- Won't happen. unless UC has a presby game looking ahead to Poly.

UC Davis eliminates Cal Poly in week 10- Definition of a Toss Up.

Weber State loses to Montana in Week 9 and eliminated by Cal Poly in Week 12- First part will happen. second part not so sure.

Northern Iowa loses to Youngstown State in Week 10 and eliminated by Illinois State in Week 12- Not gonna happen.
Eastern Kentucky loses to Kentucky in week 10 and eliminated by Jacksonville State in Week 12- EKU is done. unless they pull out a miracle against UK

Delaware loses to Navy in Week 11 and eliminated by Villanova in Week 12- Most likely will happen.

Northern Arizona loses to Ole Miss in Week 10, loses to Weber State in Week 11 and eliminated by Eastern Washington in Week 12- I don't think the last part matters. they won't get in unless they win 2 of 3 and that won't happen.

McNeese State loses to Texas State in Week 11 and eliminated by Central Arkansas in Week 12-Very good possibility of happening

Furman loses to Appalachian State in Week 9 and Auburn in Week 10- Consider it done.

Georgia Southern eliminated by Citadel in Week 12- I don't think either of these teams are contenders anymore. doesn't matter. but its a toss up game.

Missouri State loses to Illinois State in Week 9 and eliminated by Southern Illinois in Week 12- SIU wins but don't know about ISU
Youngstown State loses to South Dakota State in Week 9 and eliminated by Illinois State in Week 11- this will more than likely happen but we shouldn't be worried about YSU

Illinois State eliminated by Western Illinois in Week 10- not gonna happen but won't matter. noone is going to vote in ISU

Massachusetts loses to Maine in Week 9 and is eliminated by James Madison in Week 11 or Hofstra in Week 12- Here is an interesting one. I think its possible but not likely. Maine isn't that great this year. but I think a loss to JMU dooms the minutemen

Hofstra is eliminated by Delaware in Week 9-hofstra isn't making it in unless they win out and that means beating UMASS and UD. not happening.

Just my .02

DONT WORRY BE HAPPY!!!!!!!!!

lib is guaranteed a playoff game next year and most likely for the next 10!!!!!!!

Comments - WIU won't win again this year.
Missouri State will finish 7-4, maybe 8-3. SIU QB is done for year.

Northern Arizona loses to Ole Miss in Week 10, loses to Weber State in Week 11 and eliminated by Eastern Washington in Week 12- I don't think the last part matters. they won't get in unless they win 2 of 3 and that won't happen.

A 7-4 NAU (7-2 FCS), with losses to two ranked FBS teams, OT loss to Montana, and a loss to top Weber team would compete quite well with a 9-2 (8-2 FCS) Liberty for an at-large spot.

Montana State needs to be in your scenario as well - at 4-3 (3-3 FCS), they have 3 games left they should be favored in (Idaho State, Portland State and Sac State) as well as home against Montana. If they win out, they are definately in the playoffs.

Part of Liberty's problem will be the general weakness of the Big South, with the best OOC win being Liberty's over Lafayette.

dbackjon wrote:Comments - WIU won't win again this year.
Missouri State will finish 7-4, maybe 8-3. SIU QB is done for year.

Northern Arizona loses to Ole Miss in Week 10, loses to Weber State in Week 11 and eliminated by Eastern Washington in Week 12- I don't think the last part matters. they won't get in unless they win 2 of 3 and that won't happen.

A 7-4 NAU (7-2 FCS), with losses to two ranked FBS teams, OT loss to Montana, and a loss to top Weber team would compete quite well with a 9-2 (8-2 FCS) Liberty for an at-large spot.

That 7-4 team would be the number 3 team at most in the conference. Big sky may get two teams in but there is no way 3 get in.

Also didn't know about the SIU qb that makes things very interesting in that conference. they could potentially lose to Missouri St. at home and AT SDSU... makes for a toss up because they still have to win two games to qualify. If SIU crumbles and loses 3 of 4(not likely considering the competition) they could be out. we really need the MVC to beat up on each other so only one team goes. I'd love to see YSU beat UNI and SIU lose at least 2. that would leave SDSU as the sole team with a good enough wins to get them in. I'm afraid that win over UNI might be a deal breaker for SIU over us though....

flamesfilmguy wrote:

dbackjon wrote:Comments - WIU won't win again this year.
Missouri State will finish 7-4, maybe 8-3. SIU QB is done for year.

Northern Arizona loses to Ole Miss in Week 10, loses to Weber State in Week 11 and eliminated by Eastern Washington in Week 12- I don't think the last part matters. they won't get in unless they win 2 of 3 and that won't happen.

A 7-4 NAU (7-2 FCS), with losses to two ranked FBS teams, OT loss to Montana, and a loss to top Weber team would compete quite well with a 9-2 (8-2 FCS) Liberty for an at-large spot.

That 7-4 team would be the number 3 team at most in the conference. Big sky may get two teams in but there is no way 3 get in.

in his scenario, he is assuming there is no at-large from the Big Sky

Yes, he's hoping that a UCD upset of CP sets off a chain reaction in the Big Sky...

I have enjoyed reading each of your thoughts about LU's playoff possibilities...I guess I will give my two (or three) thoughts:

1. Its amazing to me that we are even having these discussions after losing the senior class that we had last year. That was an extremely talented and experienced group. While they missed the playoffs, I believe they helped establish LU in playoff discussions for this year.

2. The GPI, which hasn't been released yet for this week and is used by the selection committee, is really something we need to watch down the stretch. While we will take a hit in the GPI the next couple of weeks with poor teams from the Big South, we need to hope that not only Laffy wins out that both Garner-Webb and Stony Brook finish strong until we play them. This will strengthen where we stand at the end of the season when the dust settles.

3. While definitely not a lock, I believe that LU, if they can win out, will play either Richmond or Villonova the first round of the playoffs. I know there is a lot that can happen, but this will be the second year in a row that we have seriously been knocking on the playoff door and I believe the time has come. This would be an amazing accomplishment for such a young team.

dp24 wrote:I have enjoyed reading each of your thoughts about LU's playoff possibilities...I guess I will give my two (or three) thoughts:

1. Its amazing to me that we are even having these discussions after losing the senior class that we had last year. That was an extremely talented and experienced group. While they missed the playoffs, I believe they helped establish LU in playoff discussions for this year.

2. The GPI, which hasn't been released yet for this week and is used by the selection committee, is really something we need to watch down the stretch. While we will take a hit in the GPI the next couple of weeks with poor teams from the Big South, we need to hope that not only Laffy wins out that both Garner-Webb and Stony Brook finish strong until we play them. This will strengthen where we stand at the end of the season when the dust settles.

3. While definitely not a lock, I believe that LU, if they can win out, will play either Richmond or Villonova the first round of the playoffs. I know there is a lot that can happen, but this will be the second year in a row that we have seriously been knocking on the playoff door and I believe the time has come. This would be an amazing accomplishment for such a young team.

Again, I believe that the committe will do anything and everything they can to keep us out. There is little or no chance that any of the committee snobs feel remorse for us not getting in last year. And it doesn't hurt their case that we lost to JMU and the rest of our games are BSC weak teams in their opinion. I agree that if Laffy wins out, and Gardner Webb and Stony Brook remain unbeaten until we play them, we do have a shot. But it is really slim. The auto bid will give us our time to shine for years to come.

I hope I'm wrong and we get in. I'm just tired of holding my breath when the deck is stacked against us.

We also have to hope that last week was an abberation on offense and CSU didn't expose a weakness. I think we are easily good to go until GW and SBU and then we'll see how we play. I do believe we will pull it together and win out though.

Again, my 2 cents for what it's worth.