A Sea Of Red

I thought it'd be a good idea to separate the playoff talk from the victory discussion.

The formal announcement doesn't come until 7pm ET Sunday on ESPNU. But we can hash out the scenarios here.

as someone over at the JMU boards put it:

RE: W&M (7-4) vs Liberty (10-2).

Liberty only has 8 DI wins and W&M has a FBS loss. So, in FCS, it's W&M (7-3) vs Liberty (8-2)

W&M has no loss as bad as PC. W&M has a win against playoff-bound UNH, Liberty has no wins against playoff teams.

Common opponent, VMI:
WM 52 VMI 17
LIB 38 VMI 26

SOS, no contest.

Nice analysis, JMU.

Hopefully our first place finish in the conference and a convincing win over Elon will help sway the committee.

It's Liberty vs. William and Mary.

That's pretty much what it boils down to.

They have nicer losses, and nicer wins. But they have more losses, and would be the 5th CAA team. Plus, they ended the season by proving they can't beat playoff teams like Richmond and JMU.

The VMI common opponent thing is pretty bogus, IMO. They hosted VMI, and we went to VMI. VMI is a conference game, and a rival for us. No comparison.

I like the poster B&G’s argument from the AGS board, (in regards to Liberty, W&M, Elon)

“I'd pick the team that won this week with the pressure on the line. Clearly that is Liberty.”

Hopefully the committee will consider: What have you done for me lately?

I think we did what we needed to do today. The committee needs to take into consideration that a tom of "experts" counted this team out, but they came to play. Our defense was stellar and inspiring. We must get a shot. i hope it IS JMU if we get in, so the boys can have another chance to prove the "experts" wrong.

Rooster Cogburn wrote:I think we did what we needed to do today. The committee needs to take into consideration that a tom of "experts" counted this team out, but they came to play. Our defense was stellar and inspiring. We must get a shot. i hope it IS JMU if we get in, so the boys can have another chance to prove the "experts" wrong.

"Hoping" for JMU?

Haha, I am PRAYING for anyone but JMU. But I am pretty sure if we make it, that's where we're going.

JMUDukes wrote:

Rooster Cogburn wrote:I think we did what we needed to do today. The committee needs to take into consideration that a tom of "experts" counted this team out, but they came to play. Our defense was stellar and inspiring. We must get a shot. i hope it IS JMU if we get in, so the boys can have another chance to prove the "experts" wrong.

"Hoping" for JMU?

Alright, bad phrasing, sorry. I just know that if we get in, we are getting someone of JMU's calibre, so I want the chance for the boys to show we belong.

I am praying we don't get blue HOSED.

Rooster Cogburn wrote:

JMUDukes wrote:

Rooster Cogburn wrote:I think we did what we needed to do today. The committee needs to take into consideration that a tom of "experts" counted this team out, but they came to play. Our defense was stellar and inspiring. We must get a shot. i hope it IS JMU if we get in, so the boys can have another chance to prove the "experts" wrong.

"Hoping" for JMU?

Alright, bad phrasing, sorry. I just know that if we get in, we are getting someone of JMU's calibre, so I want the chance for the boys to show we belong.

Either App St or JMU. I would much rather go to JMU where they may at least a chance students will come back early for a playoff game.

the good thing is that at least we gave the committee a tough decision to make. i know this is not ncaa hoops, but i listen alot in march when committee's choose teams. i have to feel good that this late season run has to give LU a slight edge over W&M, if W&M lost today. too close to call..i will pray for the loyal fans of the football program that LU gets in. Getting in may hopefully result in more of a team following in the years to come.

as lang said the committee will look hard at the 2nd place OVC team. the committee will look at jax state and the fact that ex-LSU ryan perilloux is their QB, and the redemption factor for him, makes for good TV for the four letter network. tn-martin is tied for 2nd in the OVC as well, but their schedule appears to be weaker than jax. state. i look at it as W&M, LU, and jax. state. we really needed the tribe to get killed today. and W&M has a strong resume. the presby loss kills us IMO.

Would somebody please list the automatic beths into the tournament? Try to fugure out the process.

Thanks

bigsmooth wrote:as lang said the committee will look hard at the 2nd place OVC team. the committee will look at jax state and the fact that ex-LSU ryan perilloux is their QB, and the redemption factor for him, makes for good TV for the four letter network. tn-martin is tied for 2nd in the OVC as well, but their schedule appears to be weaker than jax. state. i look at it as W&M, LU, and jax. state. we really needed the tribe to get killed today. and W&M has a strong resume. the presby loss kills us IMO.

Interesting. I know in bball the committee loves to set up potential story lines with their matchups. I thought if the football committee was similar, we'd have a pretty good advantage. A potent offense, first time in the playoffs, diversifying the field a little. But now that you mention it, the Perilloux story scares me a bit.

smooth, a big problem for Jax State is that it is the THIRD place team in the OVC. The second-place team, UTM, didn't finish with seven DI wins.

Chris Lang wrote:smooth, a big problem for Jax State is that it is the THIRD place team in the OVC. The second-place team, UTM, didn't finish with seven DI wins.

So Chris...what is your GUT telling you?

I have this bad feeling that it will be W&M over LU.

Fumblerooskies wrote:

Chris Lang wrote:smooth, a big problem for Jax State is that it is the THIRD place team in the OVC. The second-place team, UTM, didn't finish with seven DI wins.

So Chris...what is your GUT telling you?

To lose some weight.

Everyone was CONVINCED heading into this week that W&M's only chance to make the field was to beat Richmond. Now all of a sudden, the Tribe are a better than 50-50 shot? I just don't see it.

They're looking a the precedent set last year when UNH got in at 7-4. Problem was there was a serious lack of teams for those last two spots. The fact that Liberty, with six DI wins, was even in the discussion, was surprising. I really don't think the Flames got that deep of a look.

Now you've got a team that has won two straight conference titles in unbeaten fashion and slipped once at Presbyterian. It's an awful loss, yes. But the rest of Liberty's resume is attractive. The Flames didn't just beat Elon here today, they crushed Elon. They made a statement to the committee that they were ready to beat a high-level team that entered the game as a playoff lock had it won.

AGS people can't have it both ways. They can't say Elon is going to win by four touchdowns all week and then call a win over Elon meaningless after the Flames pull off the victory.

I think the Coastal Carolina model is going to be used tomorrow. The Chants went 9-2 and had a signature win over Furman and bad losses to Elon (5-6) and Georgia Southern (3-8 ). Liberty went 10-2 with one bad loss (Presbyterian 4-8 ) and a signature win over an eight-win Elon team. Coastal was a two-time league champion (co-champion one year). Liberty is a two-time league champion. The Big South's GPI is better than that of a couple of auto-bid conferences. If you're putting together a field of the 16 most deserving teams, do you exclude a 10-2 (8-2 really) conference champion in favor of a third-place team from the Ohio Valley or the fifth-place team from the CAA? That's the question.

My gut says Liberty's in. We'll see if I'm right tomorrow.

LUSPORTSFAN wrote:Would somebody please list the automatic beths into the tournament? Try to fugure out the process.

Thanks

CAA-JMU
SoCon-Appalachian State
MVC- Southern Illinois
MEAC- South Carolina State
Big Sky- Weber State
OVC- Eastern Kentucky
Patriot- Colgate
Southland- Texas State*

*-Central Arkansas would have the better conference record but due to their transitional status they are ineligible for the conference title and the automatic bid

Great synopsis, Chris...thanks for that. Can't wait to watch the show tomorrow.

Chris Lang wrote:

Fumblerooskies wrote:

Chris Lang wrote:smooth, a big problem for Jax State is that it is the THIRD place team in the OVC. The second-place team, UTM, didn't finish with seven DI wins.

So Chris...what is your GUT telling you?

To lose some weight.

Everyone was CONVINCED heading into this week that W&M's only chance to make the field was to beat Richmond. Now all of a sudden, the Tribe are a better than 50-50 shot? I just don't see it.

They're looking a the precedent set last year when UNH got in at 7-4. Problem was there was a serious lack of teams for those last two spots. The fact that Liberty, with six DI wins, was even in the discussion, was surprising. I really don't think the Flames got that deep of a look.

Now you've got a team that has won two straight conference titles in unbeaten fashion and slipped once at Presbyterian. It's an awful loss, yes. But the rest of Liberty's resume is attractive. The Flames didn't just beat Elon here today, they crushed Elon. They made a statement to the committee that they were ready to beat a high-level team that entered the game as a playoff lock had it won.

AGS people can't have it both ways. They can't say Elon is going to win by four touchdowns all week and then call a win over Elon meaningless after the Flames pull off the victory.

I think the Coastal Carolina model is going to be used tomorrow. The Chants went 9-2 and had a signature win over Furman and bad losses to Elon (5-6) and Georgia Southern (3-8). Liberty went 10-2 with one bad loss (Presbyterian 4-8) and a signature win over an eight-win Elon team. Coastal was a two-time league champion (co-champion one year). Liberty is a two-time league champion. The Big South's GPI is better than that of a couple of auto-bid conferences. If you're putting together a field of the 16 most deserving teams, do you exclude a 10-2 (8-2 really) conference champion in favor of a third-place team from the Ohio Valley or the fifth-place team from the CAA? That's the question.

My gut says Liberty's in. We'll see if I'm right tomorrow.

Chris is my hero and I 100% agree

ok...so jax state lost on a tiebreaker to ut-martin. W&M losses are to JMU, Richmond, villanova, and nc state. that is a pretty good resume. i hope im wrong but i just dont think it looks that good for us.

bigsmooth wrote:ok...so jax state lost on a tiebreaker to ut-martin. W&M losses are to JMU, Richmond, villanova, and nc state. that is a pretty good resume. i hope im wrong but i just dont think it looks that good for us.

I understand what you are getting at Smoothie, but a good resume is made up of wins, not losses.

I like the argument that we were the team that not only won, but won impressively against a quality opponent with the pressure on in the last game of the season. W&M did not.