[coolhandluke]

Here's how I see our chances looking IF we beat Elon...

1 James Madison
2 Appalachian St
3 Montana
4 Richmond or William and Mary (winner in loser out)
5 Villanova or Delaware (winner in loser out)
6 Cal Poly
7 Weber St
8 Wofford
9 Northern Iowa
10 New Hampshire or Maine (winner in loser out)
11 S Illinois
12 SLC winner (Cent Arkansas, McNeese St, Texas St.)
13 Holy Cross or Colgate (winner in loser out)
14 South Carolina St.
15 Montana St. or E. Washington (winner in, loser may get in)
16 Liberty or Furman or South Dakota St or E. Washington with a loss

We need Wofford to beat Furman to make sure they do not get in.
It would be great if Hofstra beats Mass.
South Dakota does not get the auto bid, but we really need North Dakota to beat them and keep them out for sure.
E. Washington should beat Montana St. because they still have a shot to make it over us even with a loss.
Ga. Southern will probably not make it above us with 6 loses.
W. Illinois will probably not make it with 5 losses.
Harvard will not be in the playoffs because they are Ivy League.

So basically if we win and Furman, South Dakota St, and Montana St all lose, we are pretty much in.
We could still get in if all these teams win if we have an impressive win over Elon which means we would need to beat them by like 3 touchdowns or so. This will just be a committee decision.

So the chances aren't as bad as we think they are. We just need to take care of Elon and then let the committee decide whether or not to let us in.

[TylerBakersGonnaBGreat]

Youre a loser.

[Rooster Cogburn]

Youre a loser.

And you are a greatly successful brilliant dude!

[TylerBakersGonnaBGreat]

Youre a loser.

And you are a greatly successful brilliant dude!

that I am sir... that I am.

[Chris Lang]

Montana State cannot get to seven DI wins
Eastern Washington cannot get to seven DI wins or seven wins period.
Villanova is in, period. Delaware would be 5-7 with a win.
South Dakota State is out. North Dakota State is out. No 7-4 or 7-5 team from the MVC will make it.
Georgia Southern did not reach seven DI wins.
Western Illinois cannot reach seven DI wins.
Even with a win over Wofford, 8-4 Furman will not make it.
Massachusetts cannot reach seven DI wins (Bryant is a non-counter).

None of these teams matter.

[TylerBakersGonnaBGreat]

So all of his work was for nothing? (PLEASE SAY YES)

[Schfourteenteen]

Id argue Richmond would get in over us as well even if they lost


Personally my favorite was the 6 loss team GaSo. They cant have 7 wins, what are they doing here?

[Chris Lang]

I'm sorry if I came off sounding flip, I didn't mean that. But really, the teams to watch are UNH and Richmond. The best path for Liberty is if both win and if LU wins. The OVC game doesn't matter -- the loser has no at-large chance, and the Southland isn't getting a second team. The Big Sky nor MVC are getting third teams.

["R" i "]

Richmond and UNH are both on the road.

[Fumblerooskies]

Freaking Presbyterian

[coolhandluke]

All I did here was taking the teams that were above us in the GPI and show how they would not make it before us.

If you take out all the teams like Georgia Southern and Furman and Elon etc, that leaves us logically falling right into that 16th spot with a win against Elon.

I should have made it more clear that what I was doing was eliminating those above us in the GPI.

But I didn't know though that eastern washington can't make the playoffs.

[coolhandluke]

I'm sorry if I came off sounding flip, I didn't mean that. But really, the teams to watch are UNH and Richmond. The best path for Liberty is if both win and if LU wins. The OVC game doesn't matter -- the loser has no at-large chance, and the Southland isn't getting a second team. The Big Sky nor MVC are getting third teams.

So who do we have to worry about making it above us then? It seems like, by what you are saying, all we have to do is win and we are in...

[ToTheLeft]

William and Mary and Maine, with wins, would have a pretty good case compared to us.

[coolhandluke]

William and Mary and Maine, with wins, would have a pretty good case compared to us.

So are you saying that New Hampshire and Richmond are in no matter what? And if both W&M and Maine win then all four teams will get in?

[ToTheLeft]

Yes, that is what I am saying. And that, if they both win, and we beat Elon, we could take Elon's spot. I would say Maine, William and Mary, Elon, and Liberty are the 4 teams fighting for the final playoff spot. Some people feel like there are other teams involved, but I would say that those 4 are fighting for the 1 spot.

[coolhandluke]

gotcha...

Yeah, all I was doing with my first post was showing that the teams in front of us in the GPI are not going to make it before we do, and if we win we have a good shot at being in the playoffs...

[Chris Lang]

Liberty is definitely not in a "win and in" scenario. Probably need Richmond to win to bounce W&M and for UNH to win to bounce Maine.

[coolhandluke]

what if one happens and the other doesn't? Could W&M and LU get in if Maine loses?

[JMUDukes]

Delaware? in the playoffs? as a 5 seed? pass whatever you're smokin' man

[coolhandluke]

Delaware? in the playoffs? as a 5 seed? pass whatever you're smokin' man

wow... you're a quick one!

I have already said that this was a list of teams ahead of us in the GPI. I wrote Delaware next to nova who is number 5 right now. Where the teams are in the 16 spots in not their "seed". It is relative to their rankings or who they are playing this week.

[coolhandluke]

1 James Madison
2 Appalachian St
3 Montana
4 Richmond
5 Villanova
6 Cal Poly
7 Weber St
8 Wofford
9 Northern Iowa
10 New Hampshire
11 S Illinois
12 SLC winner (Cent Arkansas, McNeese St, Texas St.)
13 Holy Cross or Colgate (winner in loser out)
14 South Carolina St.
15
16

Elon
William and Mary
Maine
Liberty

So basically from what I am hearing there are 5 teams competing for two spots.

If we beat Elon it comes down to two teams besides us.

All we need is for Richmond to beat William and Mary OR New Hampshire to beat Maine.

So we could win and then both W&M and Maine win and we still get left out.

But if we win and one of those teams loses, we take the last spot, probably against JMU.

[JMUDukes]

Richmond's better than W&M, they should win that game.

[coolhandluke]

that's what I am thinking... and hoping for!

[Purple Haize]

I think that the Presby loss will come back to haunt us on this one. If I am on the committee and there are several teams with similar records vying for 2 spots I am going to look at how you lost to and who you beat. Having lost to Presby will not help us at all! I unfortunately am going to say we will be without a chair when the music stops.

[Chris Lang]

From my notebook Wednesday:

AT-LARGE (8)
* Richmond-William & Mary winner
* Maine-New Hampshire winner
* Wofford, though a loss to Furman Saturday might push the Terriers to the bubble
* Montana, regardless of what happens against Montana State
* Villanova, regardless of what happens against Delaware
* Cal Poly, regardless of what happens against Wisconsin
* The second-place MVC team, though Southern Illinois might sweat if it loses to Illinois State Saturday

That leaves one spot open. It’s most likely Elon’s if it beats Liberty Saturday. If Liberty wins, the committee will have to make a decision. Take a conference champion that is 10-2 with an unblemished league mark, or select a fifth team from the CAA or second from the OVC?