[Kolzilla41]

Wow, if that projection holds true, we have the bracket to make a run to the quarterfinals, if not the semi-finals.

[jcmanson]

And Lang's weekly update:

http://www2.newsadvance.com/sports/2011 ... r-1422289/

[BiggAl57]

interesting that Lang has JMU out and the guy from TSN has them in. although i almost expect him (TSN) to Seed App just becasue they are App

[Sly Fox]

JMU will have to really work it to get in at this point. Saturday's loss really wrecked them.

[Cider Jim]

From Lang:

SECOND ROUND
NSU/Liberty at #1 Maine (10-1)

Now THAT would be the mother of all road trips. HMO, warm up the bus!

[Chris Lang]

JMU will have to really work it to get in at this point. Saturday's loss really wrecked them.

It's not even just the loss. The Dukes are dropping like flies, just wracked with injuries. JMU's remaining schedule is brutal ... @UNH, vs. URI, @UMass. They should beat the Rams, but if they don't get either UNH or UMass, they're looking at a 6-5 finish. Even if they get one of them, they're 7-4 and they'll be hanging their entire resume on the Liberty game, seeing how CCSU has been a total flop this year.

Nothing against Haley, but his projections just aren't very good. To have JMU securely in, you have to project the Dukes winning out, which is really going out on a limb with that schedule and the injury issues. And if JMU is 7-4, they'll be in the opening round.

[rueful]

From Lang:

SECOND ROUND
NSU/Liberty at #1 Maine (10-1)

Now THAT would be the mother of all road trips. HMO, warm up the bus!

If this were to happen I could finally make it to a game this year

[SumItUp]

Also, why would JMU not play the first round, and ODU would? Seems like ODU is cruising toward a first round bye, and with their remaining schedule, JMU may be lucky to get in.

JMU lost 3 of their starting offensive lineman and their starting RB to injury during the 2nd and 3rd quarters of the ODU game. Their defense is still strong, but they may struggle to make the playoffs due to injury.

[01LUGrad]

Even if they get one of them, they're 7-4 and they'll be hanging their entire resume on the Liberty game, seeing how CCSU has been a total flop this year.

How about that for a turn of events.

[RVAparks]

New playoff projections are up on FSN, our "seeding" actually dropped. The projections now have Albany (6-3, NEC) visiting us, then the winner heading to #1 North Dakota State (ROAD TRIP!).

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

[BiggAl57]

Lang should have his projections out something today. Be interesting to see where we fall in his

[Sly Fox]

I'm still holding out hope for us to be bracketed to Sam Houston State in 2nd Round should we take care of business. The Bearkats have gotten zero love despite simply getting the job done week after week.

[jcmanson]

Lang posted his late Saturday night:

http://www2.newsadvance.com/sports/2011 ... r-1438320/

No offense to anyone, but I give much more credence to where Lang has us than TSN.

The way the seeds are shaping up, it looks like the top 3 will be North Dakota State, Montana State, and Sam Houston State. I'm hoping Georgia Southern, Towson, Lehigh slip into #4 and we get paired with one of them. I'm not sure I can justify a trip halfway across the country for a football game with such short notice.

[Sly Fox]

Southwest flies into Houston for very affordable prices.

[RVAparks]

The way the seeds are shaping up, it looks like the top 3 will be North Dakota State, Montana State, and Sam Houston State. I'm hoping Georgia Southern, Towson, Lehigh slip into #4 and we get paired with one of them. I'm not sure I can justify a trip halfway across the country for a football game with such short notice.

So you put more stock in Lang's projections b/c you don't want to travel cross country? At this point who is weaker than the NEC Conference Champ vs. Big South? Shouldn't they play the #1 seed? I don't see the committee sending a CAA team to Fargo.

These are more fun than anything, still a lot left to happen.

[jcmanson]

The way the seeds are shaping up, it looks like the top 3 will be North Dakota State, Montana State, and Sam Houston State. I'm hoping Georgia Southern, Towson, Lehigh slip into #4 and we get paired with one of them. I'm not sure I can justify a trip halfway across the country for a football game with such short notice.

So you put more stock in Lang's projections b/c you don't want to travel cross country? At this point who is weaker than the NEC Conference Champ vs. Big South? Shouldn't they play the #1 seed? I don't see the committee sending a CAA team to Fargo.

These are more fun than anything, still a lot left to happen.

First of all, they don't match up teams from the first round and teams that are seeded #1-4 based on any type of seeding system. They are based on a number of factors including geography, trying to avoid regular season rematches, trying to avoid pairing teams from the same conference, etc. So, just because NEC Champ vs Big South Champ would likely be the "weakest" that doesn't mean they would automatically play the #1 team. They could play #4.

Secondly, I put more stock in Lang's projections because he knows what he's talking about. Every week I can name at least 2-3 things wrong with TSN's projection.

[RVAparks]

Secondly, I put more stock in Lang's projections because he knows what he's talking about. Every week I can name at least 2-3 things wrong with TSN's projection.

You can? So you know the playoff bracket now? Can you tell us?

I'm well aware there are number of factors, but the way that it's shaping up right now there will only be ONE 1-4 seed in the South. And likely 3 to 4 first round teams in the South, someone is going to have to go west.

Lang does a great job with predictions, it just seemed as if you had zero football reasoning in your original post, just personal travel preference. Sorry if I took it the wrong way.

[drumnColby757]

I agree, I do not see JMU making it to the playoffs!

[jbock13]

But here's the thing, the CAA (or maybe the SOCON) is the best conference. So if you go .500 in that conference, you deserve to make into the playoffs over a teams who plays in lesser conferences.

Perhaps its unfair, but it is what it is. Honestly I can't say I think we're at the point where we'd even go .500 in the CAA.

[RVAparks]

I really see Norfolk State coming here, if we make it. But we'll see

[jcmanson]

Secondly, I put more stock in Lang's projections because he knows what he's talking about. Every week I can name at least 2-3 things wrong with TSN's projection.

You can? So you know the playoff bracket now? Can you tell us?

I'm well aware there are number of factors, but the way that it's shaping up right now there will only be ONE 1-4 seed in the South. And likely 3 to 4 first round teams in the South, someone is going to have to go west.

Lang does a great job with predictions, it just seemed as if you had zero football reasoning in your original post, just personal travel preference. Sorry if I took it the wrong way.

The travel preference and the comment about Lang were 2 completely separate thoughts.

And what I'm talking about w/ TSN's projections is lots of times they'll have something like Liberty @ Albany. That's not going to happen. Liberty would outbid Albany for the home game. Or they'll have something like Indiana State @ Liberty and Norfolk St @ Montana. That's not happening either since they would obviously pair Liberty/Norfolk St. Lang never has stupid mistakes like that in his projections.

I agree with your NSU @ Liberty prediction. That definitely happens if: 1. ODU beats W&M to get to 9-2. I don't see them NOT getting a first round bye at 9-2. They may get one at 8-3. 2. NSU beats Morgan St this weekend to pretty much lockup the MEAC. 3. We beat Stony Brook.

Those 3 things happen and it's NSU @ Liberty first round.

[RVAparks]

And what I'm talking about w/ TSN's projections is lots of times they'll have something like Liberty @ Albany. That's not going to happen. Liberty would outbid Albany for the home game. Or they'll have something like Indiana State @ Liberty and Norfolk St @ Montana.

Ummm... do you actually read the TSN projections? They have Albany @ Liberty. Liberty has always been slated to host a first round game for like the past 5 weeks. They've cycled through Norfolk St, Maine, ODU, and now Albany coming to Lynchburg, but have never had us on the road. We've also always been slated to play the #1 seed or #4 seed. Obviously things change hence our opponents changing but they've been steadfast in us hosting a game.

And they've never had anything like ISU @ Liberty or Norfolk State @ Montana, that I can remember.

[Sly Fox]

Actually jcmanson is thinking more from a historical perspective. TSN has been prone to head-scratching projections in the past like he mentioned. Frankly their projections have seemed more realistic the past few weeks than normal. And Chris generally seems to match up with what the selection committe decides more often than not in years past. That why he has earned credence from many of us.

[RVAparks]

Gotcha. Yea I'm not saying one is better than other, it just looked like blind observations. It seems that TSN is trying it more "seed-based", if that makes sense. While, I agree, that Chris is mimicking the selection committee more.

[jcmanson]

Gotcha. Yea I'm not saying one is better than other, it just looked like blind observations. It seems that TSN is trying it more "seed-based", if that makes sense. While, I agree, that Chris is mimicking the selection committee more.

Which is why I tend to lean towards his projections more.

And I will admit TSN has been doing a better job recently. Their first 1 or 2 projections this year had a couple but after that they've been better. I can remember previous years where everyone had something wrong with it. I went back and looked at this week's bracket, and I've got no problems with it.