[Cider Jim]

Marshall fan here. I will continue to hope that Liberty is the driving force behind a new East Coast Conference...I would like to see Marshall in the same conference as Liberty, ODU, Charlotte, App State, and James Madison...What are your thoughts?

BRILLIANT idea. I'm a Marshall alum (class of 1985) and even taught in Corbly Hall for 3 semesters. Thanks for visiting. We Are...Marshall.

[FlamesHighontheTide]

I would say screw JMU and replace them with ECU. Then remove Charlotte and bring in Coastal.

[HERDFAN_1984]

I would say screw JMU and replace them with ECU. Then remove Charlotte and bring in Coastal.

That would work too. Like I said, Liberty would be calling most of the shots regarding membership. Since you all would most likely be the heaviest financial invested to make this thing go.

I was just throwing in teams that include the current CUSAE and West that would be on board. Personally, I don’t like Middle TN. They have zero fan support. I would like to include App State for the East and Arkansas State for the West, but I don’t think either would leave the Sun Belt. Ditto for ECU leaving the AAC and their 7 million in TV money.

[LUOrange]

At this point, I'm only hoping for a better home for basketball (and other Olympic sports)). Of course that has been said already and the available options may be slim.

I agree. I think the new 12 team playoffs essentially equalizes being Indy with CUSA, the Belt, the MAC and the MWC. Those conferences are really only competing for an at large as well.

[LUOrange]

After an AAC or P5 invite, I'd be in favor of a regional east coast conference that included JMU, Marshall, ODU, App State, UNCC, GA State, GA Southern, and the Beach Chickens. It makes sense and adds value. While I, obviously can't speak for McCaw and Liberty, I don't think they'd be opposed to this hypothetical conference either. The only negative is that it's not where we want to end up, but things change. However, I don't see ECU leaving the AAC, and I'm not really interested in the Belt and CUSA as they are now.

[Ill flame]

As much as I would like to see some conference realignment it just doesn't seem super likely this time around, at least at the P5 level. The B1G and SEC run the show and the SEC already signed a massive new tv deal with no real desire to add teams. The Big Ten tv contract ends in 2023 and they don't seem to have an appetite for adding teams either. The ACC is also locked into a long term contract and seem very stable for the foreseeable future.

This just leaves the PAC 12 and Big 12, both with undesirable tv contract situations and are desperate to keep up with the Big 2 conferences (B1G & SEC). Outside of BYU there really isn't a non P5 school that would add a lot of value to either conference so will one conference try to steal from the other?

If both decide to stay put, the AAC seems satisfied with their current situation until another G5 proves that they can add enough value to the conference.

Without the catalyst of the P6 conferences adding teams then what would cause the other conferences to move teams around? Splitting C-USA and the Sunbelt into 2 more regionally aligned conferences is great for saving travel costs but is that worth the headaches and risks associated with renegotiating the tv and bowl contracts?

[tyndal23]

As much as I would like to see some conference realignment it just doesn't seem super likely this time around, at least at the P5 level. The B1G and SEC run the show and the SEC already signed a massive new tv deal with no real desire to add teams. The Big Ten tv contract ends in 2023 and they don't seem to have an appetite for adding teams either. The ACC is also locked into a long term contract and seem very stable for the foreseeable future.

This just leaves the PAC 12 and Big 12, both with undesirable tv contract situations and are desperate to keep up with the Big 2 conferences (B1G & SEC). Outside of BYU there really isn't a non P5 school that would add a lot of value to either conference so will one conference try to steal from the other?

If both decide to stay put, the AAC seems satisfied with their current situation until another G5 proves that they can add enough value to the conference.

Without the catalyst of the P6 conferences adding teams then what would cause the other conferences to move teams around? Splitting C-USA and the Sunbelt into 2 more regionally aligned conferences is great for saving travel costs but is that worth the headaches and risks associated with renegotiating the tv and bowl contracts?

Big 12 needs to add UCF and get a recruiting footprint in FL. Cinci for travel partner with WVU.

[Sly Fox]

First off, welcome to the discussion HERDFAN_1984. I grew up just across the river in Wheelersburg so I have always had a soft spot in my hear for the Herd. I remember going to basketball camp there back in the day in that old gym.

A year ago in the heart fo the pandemic lockdowns, there was strong discussion about a breakaway league as you describe. I never heard anything directly out of our AD's office .. but I did hear quite a bit secondarily that Ian as least was looking into the possibility. But the dynamics have changed significantly in the past 12 months. Most significantly the proposed 12-team CFP has changed the dynamics of what is a stable position rather dynamically.

Here is how I see the FBS realignment as it stands today. None of the P5 leagues have any interest whatsoever in expansion. That pretty much locks up the P5 discussion. The only caveats to this equation are if Oklahoma or Texas are on the move. Those are the only two schools that could potentially open up another wave of realignment. The University of Oklahoma which for some reason chooses to go by the initials OU is believed to hold unofficial invitations to both the B1G & SEC. Up until the playoff expanion was announced, my contacts in Norman indicated that a move to one of those leagues had about a 50-50 chance of going down in the next 24 months. But now that a Big XII championship all but assures an automatic bid to the new dance, there is less impetus for the Land Thieves to bolt a league whre they have a relatively easy path to the big paydays. So now the odds that they stay in the Big XII for the foreseeable future have increased significantly.

While Texas would not likely be able to hold their nose long enough to align with the lower academic profiles of the SEC, they also are believed to hold offers from the B1G & SEC as well. A&M might fight to disrupt any SEC attempt to bring them into the fold but the Horns bring too much to the table to be stopped. Once again, I don't see this going down for multiple reasons. Unless Oklahoma bolts and shakes up the equation, the Horns have a relatively easy path to the CFP of their own volition. They also have a 3rd Tier contract with ESPN that puts them on par financially with the current SEC & B1G payouts. The new contracts are expected to go up but then again the same holds true for the Big XII. The old Pac-12 possibilities are no longer under consideration. The B1G may be academic peers of Texas making it possibility. But there really isn't much appetitie among the movers & shakers in Austin to align with the Rust Belt. Sorry to my Northern friends, but that is the truth. That leaves only one other possibility at this stage beyond continued Big XII membership ... Independence with a possible scheduling arrangement like Notre Dame possesses with the ACC. UT is really one of only a couple of schools who could even consder such a path. But I can assure you that the idea has been floated and considered in both Austin & Bristol. And trust me when I state that the Mouse is pulling the strings on the next round of realignment cannot be emphasized enough.

As long as UT & OU stay put, the possibility of any G5 school stepping up is nil. With the Big XII already being given an exemption for a CCG at ten members, there is zero incentive to add Houston or UCF. None whatsoever.

So if that is the case, the same holds true for the AAC. Unless they had folks in Houston, Cincinnati or Orlando getting the call up to P5, they don't need to add anyone. That would just be another mouth to feed coming out of the same pot. Less members means more revenue unless an addition is believed to substantially strengthen contract value for the league. So for all intents and purposes, the AAC door is likely to be closed for years to come.

That leaves the G5 & Indies to figure out its own situation. There have been scores of discussions about the Sun Belt & CUSA splitting based on regional alignments of East & West. Unfortunately nearly all of the more valuable football institutions reside in the Belt. And there is more than a tad bit of bitterness for most Belt schools about how they were raided and discarded by most of the current CUSA lineup. There is even discussion of the Belt potentially stealing the Blazers and/or Golden Eagles from CUSA. Anything is possible.

So that leaves a geographically scattershot CUSA in need of some kind of restructuring. It is tough to find a CUSA school OK with its current situation. The bad news is that a new league would not have access to auto bids for years unless something creative were to go down such as the MEAC scheme mentioned by our Marshall friend. Honestly I believe at this stage the NCAA would probably grant an exemption to a new league based on its position of weakness these days. But that is still undetermined. I actually think the proposed Eastern league would be a nice step for us in everything but football. But is it a big enough step to justify the expense and headaches to make it happen? The jury is still out.

Unless the Horns or Sooners tip over the first domino, I simply don't see enough movement to create major opportunity for us. events could occur in the media rights discussions of the next two years rhat could change those dynamics. But no one has that crystal ball right now.

Then you factor in the most likely realignment on the Division I horizon. And it heavily involves the league we already call home. The ASUN's FBS aspirations may seem farfetched but the league commish is being aggressive in making ti happen. I will not at all be surprised if we don't see Austin Peay and/or Chatty/ETSU combo moving into the ASUN. Suddenly the non-football cachet of the league will start rising even more than it did with EKU bringing their quality hoops to the table. It is even possible that Belmont considers rejoining the league after being left holding the bag in the OVC. There are lots of possibilities that could result in us having a better place to park our olympics while we stay indy in football.

[HERDFAN_1984]

All I know is that Marshall and ODU at the very least are unhappy in CUSA. The problem is that the conference did a very poor job last go around adding teams. FIU, FAU, and Middle Tenn are really bad additions. So I figure we are looking for any avenue possible to improve our situation.

I can see why Liberty likes independence. I just was not sure if you all wanted to use a new conference as a stepping stone to higher things.

Imo, Liberty as an independent is going to have a hard time cracking the top 12 for the playoffs with the future schedules you have. At least with a conference you are guaranteed a spot if you can outperform the other 4 G5 leagues. Once the playoff take effect, watch how hard it is for any G5 team to ascend past No. 15 in the rankings. Marshall and Coastal both hit that mark last year (before our meltdown), but in a year where it actually means something to be ranked that high we would never have touched it.

Being the highest ranked G5 champion would
Be your easiest route. I figure that is why Freeze said he wants into a conference.

[LU 57]

But I can assure you that the idea has been floated and considered in both Austin & Bristol. And trust me when I state that the Mouse is pulling the strings on the next round of realignment cannot be emphasized enough.

Who is the Mouse?

[Sly Fox]

Imo, Liberty as an independent is going to have a hard time cracking the top 12 for the playoffs with the future schedules you have. At least with a conference you are guaranteed a spot if you can outperform the other 4 G5 leagues. Once the playoff take effect, watch how hard it is for any G5 team to ascend past No. 15 in the rankings. Marshall and Coastal both hit that mark last year (before our meltdown), but in a year where it actually means something to be ranked that high we would never have touched it.

Being the highest ranked G5 champion would
Be your easiest route. I figure that is why Freeze said he wants into a conference.

I agree 100%. Sadly Indy is just our best available option at this stage. But we would love to hav options to explore.

Honestly a year ago at this time any discussion of getting into a CFP would have been laughed off the board. But our eyes have been opened. I don't buy the concept that no team outside of the AAC can crack that 6th conference champion auto bid. I know history points toward that mindset. But the past 2-3 years have seen the emergence of the Belt and the slide of the Pac-12. A CUSA champ has a great shot of taking one of those slots if they run the table or come reasonably close. We were blessed having those ACC pelts on the way last year. But Coastal didn't need them in order to be in contention for discussion. I could see a Marshall, Louisiana, or Appy grabbing the 6th auto bid before the AAC under plenty of circumstances.

PS - The mouse is Disney. No that they own the vast majority of regional nets that once belonged to Fox in additon to their on national channels, they are the primary bidder in most all FBS negotiations. CBS & Fox will attempt to make moves and potentially drive up some of the contract values. Then you factor in the OTT players that are making overtures of their own out in Seattle and the Valley, this could be a watershed moment in FBS contracts.

[tyndal23]

Another angle-on BIg 12. Simplicity states adding 2 teams takes away from tv revenue. However, factoring in the state of Florida from a recruiting standpoint can’t be ignored ( similar to Texas A&M bringing in SEC to the state - it won’t be as dramatic, but still very real ). 12 teams allows for two divisions and an 8 game conference schedule allows for an additional non con game and extra home game which for the bigger schools a major revenue boost that they don’t ha e to share with other members. East - UCF,WVU,Cinci, KS,KSU,ISU. West - Texas, Baylor,TCU,Tech,OU,OSU.

[LU 57]

But I can assure you that the idea has been floated and considered in both Austin & Bristol. And trust me when I state that the Mouse is pulling the strings on the next round of realignment cannot be emphasized enough.

Who is the Mouse?

Oh wait Disney, AKA ESPN. A little slow today

[LUGrad2000]

So basically, if we want to have a chance to make the top 12 we would need 3-4 P5’s per year on our schedule and a few top level G5’s. Sprinkle in a couple games vs the AAC. We would need some home and homes vs the AAC. We will only get an occasional P5 in Lynchburg. Having HCHF here is such a blessing and such amazing timing. It is super critical to have a couple more years like last year now.

[tyndal23]

So basically, if we want to have a chance to make the top 12 we would need 3-4 P5’s per year on our schedule and a few top level G5’s. Sprinkle in a couple games vs the AAC. We would need some home and homes vs the AAC. We will only get an occasional P5 in Lynchburg. Having HCHF here is such a blessing and such amazing timing. It is super critical to have a couple more years like last year now.

There is another thread for this - but for example 2024. We could very reasonably be playing 4 G5 conf champs ( MAC, Conf USA, Sunbelt, and AAC that season BUT only have 1 P5 game (NC) and 1 fcs game. Assuming 12 team playoff starts in 2023, I would be looking at dropping Campbell and adding BC ( or someone ) - I used FBS Schedules to see what teams have availability. LU doesn’t have the SOS luxury for FCS games that conference teams do.

[LUalum12]

Agreed

[Ill flame]

Just something to think about.

A hypothetical "eastern conference" consisting of Coastal Carolina, app st, Liberty, uab, marshall, Georgia st, western Kentucky, southern miss, Charlotte and old Dominion would be very competitive in all major sports.


Here are the average football rankings based on the F+ rating.

Eastern conference= 61.2* (Not counting a likely terrible ODU team)
AAC= 61.9
Sunbelt= 68.4
C-usa= 97.9

In basketball that same eastern conference would have an average net rating in the top 10 conferences. Between the WCC and A10.

AAC= 115
WCC= 125
Eastern= 146
A10= 155
C-USA= 164
Sunbelt= 217

For baseball using RPI, the "eastern conference" would be the 6th ranked conference between AAC and C-USA with an average ranking of 118.

AAC=111
Eastern= 118
C-USA= 120
Sunbelt= 136

Of course these numbers all come from one covid season but they give a solid idea how competitive of a conference it would actually be.

[HERDFAN_1984]

Just something to think about.

A hypothetical "eastern conference" consisting of Coastal Carolina, app st, Liberty, uab, marshall, Georgia st, western Kentucky, southern miss, Charlotte and old Dominion would be very competitive in all major sports.


Here are the average football rankings based on the F+ rating.

Eastern conference= 61.2* (Not counting a likely terrible ODU team)
AAC= 61.9
Sunbelt= 68.4
C-usa= 97.9

In basketball that same eastern conference would have an average net rating in the top 10 conferences. Between the WCC and A10.

AAC= 115
WCC= 125
Eastern= 146
A10= 155
C-USA= 164
Sunbelt= 217

For baseball using RPI, the "eastern conference" would be the 6th ranked conference between AAC and C-USA with an average ranking of 118.

AAC=111
Eastern= 118
C-USA= 120
Sunbelt= 136

Of course these numbers all come from one covid season but they give a solid idea how competitive of a conference it would actually be.

Hey nice job on putting this together. My only concern here is that I personally do not believe any of the current Sun Belt teams would be willing to leave their current situation. App State maybe willing to listen though.

Btw, I do not doubt for one minute that Liberty will continue to grow and be successful. I would like to think that one day you all will be on BYU’s level. I do not think joining a conference with some of the better “names” in CUSA would stunt your growth. In fact I would argue that it could be a nice stepping stone to get where you all eventually want to go.

Marshall, UAB, Southern Miss, and La Tech are not exactly pathetic programs. They have just been down as of late except UAB (who is opening a brand new 45K seat stadium this fall), but all of these teams have potential to really elevate back to their past success.

On the basketball side of things I would image that playing ODU, Charlotte, and WKU is more attractive than some of the current ASUN teams. Either way, much respect to you all. I will not bump this thread anymore. Just wanted to gauge your all’s interest from a fan standpoint. Go Flames!

[Ill flame]

Hey nice job on putting this together. My only concern here is that I personally do not believe any of the current Sun Belt teams would be willing to leave their current situation. App State maybe willing to listen though.

I'm curious why you think app state and Georgia state wouldn't be willing to leave the Sunbelt for an objectively better conference in all major sports with a smaller geographic footprint. Are the Sunbelt teams just content with their current situations?

[LU 57]

Hey nice job on putting this together. My only concern here is that I personally do not believe any of the current Sun Belt teams would be willing to leave their current situation. App State maybe willing to listen though.

I'm curious why you think app state and Georgia state wouldn't be willing to leave the Sunbelt for an objectively better conference in all major sports with a smaller geographic footprint. Are the Sunbelt teams just content with their current situations?

Doesn’t App have something in writing about not playing us in anything because of our record on “tolerance”?

[HERDFAN_1984]

Hey nice job on putting this together. My only concern here is that I personally do not believe any of the current Sun Belt teams would be willing to leave their current situation. App State maybe willing to listen though.

I'm curious why you think app state and Georgia state wouldn't be willing to leave the Sunbelt for an objectively better conference in all major sports with a smaller geographic footprint. Are the Sunbelt teams just content with their current situations?

Imo, the current members of the SBC are content where they are. They feel like they have a lot of momentum going, and are track to overtake the MWC as the 2nd best G5 league. They also have ESPN backing which I think is a big deal. They also operate at 10 teams which allow them room to expand and be selective with added teams. That is another luxury CUSA does not have. We are bloated and pulling around dead weight (FIU, FAU, USTA, Middle TN.

My biggest fear is that the SBC strings together a few more good seasons, and becomes appealing to Liberty. They then add Liberty and JMU. At that point I will lose my ever loving mind, because CUSA was to stupid to add Liberty when we had the chance.

[Kricket]

Man, I sure hope there is 0% chance we ever join the Sun Belt for two reasons:

1. They rejected us when we needed them, and we were objectively more attractive than most schools in their conference, aka I'm bitter.

2. We don't need them at this point and we don't want them. Even with major improvements, we have a much higher trajectory than the Sun Belt.

I feel only slightly less like that for C-USA, only because it didn't feel as realistic for us to get an offer from C-USA at the time. Football would be held back by both, but at the same time our other sports could use an improved conference.

What a difference a few years makes though. We would have been giddy with excitement to join, but now that we're here, not really interested, but I'd at least be flattered by a C-USA offer. I feel the Sun Belt should know better than to ask us. They can pound sand.

[LUOrange]

Hey nice job on putting this together. My only concern here is that I personally do not believe any of the current Sun Belt teams would be willing to leave their current situation. App State maybe willing to listen though.

I'm curious why you think app state and Georgia state wouldn't be willing to leave the Sunbelt for an objectively better conference in all major sports with a smaller geographic footprint. Are the Sunbelt teams just content with their current situations?

Doesn’t App have something in writing about not playing us in anything because of our record on “tolerance”?

Appy's Student and/or Faculty Senate passed a resolution in 2001 asking their admin not to play us because of Dr. Falwell's comments on the 700 Club. However, we've played them since in several sports. Most notably, Jacob Hagen's interception in the end zone to to beat them in 2015 or 16, their first season in FBS.

[jimflamesfan]

It was in 1997 that Appy State's Student Senate first made a resolution not to play LU anymore. This coincidentally happened shortly after our football team beat them at home and prevented them from making the FCS playoffs that year. LU had played them two prior years and lost and there was no such resolution.

[MUsince96]

https://hbcusports.com/2021/07/20/meac- ... etirement/

MEAC Commissioner stepping down.

Apparently in the middle of his contract.

If the MEAC is really on its last leg as some speculate. The idea of using the MEAC as a shell conference to start a new FBS league and get the NCAA auto bids is something I could see LU having the aggression and cash to accomplish.

If so I imagine that’s something Marshall, ODU and JMU might be interested in.