A Sea Of Red

ballah09 wrote: ↑November 19th, 2023, 12:27 am I don’t see how they can keep us out this week. If you look at style points, Bowling Green should’ve beaten Toledo. Blew that game in the last 2 mins. Aggies dominating Auburn. ODU turning around and beating Georgia Southern. ODU owns a win over APP State.

I'm hopeful, but won't be surprised if we stay out. We'll never be the "darlings"....and I'm okay with that since the disrespect seems to motivate this team some. Nevertheless, I won't be surprised to see Tulane move up (as they did after their squeaker last weak) and SMU move in ahead of us. As for the AP/Coaches polls, probably don't expect much respect there either. That preseason SOS still haunts us even though as the season has progressed, it's quite clear the assumptions with some of our opponents "strength" has been proven wrong. We have wins over a team that beat the brakes off of an SEC team, a team that beat an ACC team, and another team who went toe-to-toe with yet another SEC team and was predicted to be a bottom dweller (JaxSt). So as far as SOS goes as primary excuse now.....at this point, that's just them slapping their cake holes looking for some reason NOT to give us any respect/credit.

All I know there are a couple of teams in the top 25 that now has 4 losses. They better not be ranked ahead of us. Even the 3 losses teams are ridiculous for being ranked.

We are at 22 in the AP. Toledo is right behind us as 23. There is a wide gap between what Toledo has done this year and us. They were lucky to scrape by Bowling Green.

We definitely have to earn it more than comparable schools.

Tulane should not be 4 ranks ahead of LU. They have beaten no one and they have 1 lost.

From what I'm seeing, if UTSA wins Friday and we win out (our championship game will be a difficult win) we should be the NY6 G5.

UTSA is playing their best football right now so there is certainly a chance they beat Tulane. I am more concerned about us taking care of business this week. The NY6 discussion is fun but it'll be even more fun if we win the next 2 games.

And Liberty makes their first ever CFP ranking at #25.

Kricket wrote: ↑November 21st, 2023, 8:05 pm And Liberty makes their first ever CFP ranking at #25.

And I seem to recall posters on this board saying we should stay FCS, and that we weren't ready for FBS, back in the day when we moved to FBS.

And I seem to remember those same posters admitting they were wrong. Something others (you) can't seem to ever do.

Water under the bridge.

Pretty amazing accomplishment. Enjoy it but work isn't over.

**queue @BJWilliams slamming a white board**

thepostman wrote: ↑November 21st, 2023, 9:18 pm And I seem to remember those same posters admitting they were wrong. Something others (you) can't seem to ever do.

Water under the bridge.

Pretty amazing accomplishment. Enjoy it but work isn't over.

**queue @BJWilliams slamming a white board**

Consider the Source He’s not called FraudCoach for nothing!

I think this is a great moment. It’s really setting up to be an intriguing last 2 weeks. LU and Tulane are neck and neck for the NY6. That’s an amazing accomplishment!

This is a bit off topic, but @BJWilliams should be the LU beat writer for News & Advance . Okay back to the topic hahaha

The assumption has been that we are right behind Tulane and if they mess up we are next in line for the NY6 but you never really know what the CFP committee is thinking. Finally being ranked confirms it. I really don't think they will make it through UTSA and SMU. Now we just wait for them to mess up and hope we continue to take care of business.

I think Tulane will trip up. I'm more confident in that than I am in LU taking care of business but I have a lot of trauma.

How is Tennessee still ranked with 4 losses? I don’t care what conference you cover from. With 4 losses, no one should be ranked.

I actually watched the CFP show for the first time last night. The 4-loss teams struck me. But what struck me most is how much parity there seems to be. The parity at the top of spreading, and it’s trickling down. I believe this is due to the portal. The greats can’t hoard all the talent anymore. That’s good for the game.

Clemson is a 4 loss ACC team and they are still ahead of us. I don’t think Clemson, Tennessee, or NC State should be ahead of us, but I suppose what matters now is that we win and Tulane loses.

Also we should currently be ahead of Tulane but it doesn’t bother me as much anymore because if they lose we should pass them if we win out.

If they were sitting behind us right now and won out they likely would have passed us anyway. Regardless we need a two loss Tulane.

Kricket wrote: ↑November 22nd, 2023, 8:35 am Clemson is a 4 loss ACC team and they are still ahead of us. I don’t think Clemson, Tennessee, or NC State should be ahead of us, but I suppose what matters now is that we win and Tulane loses.

Do you think we would beat them if we played them?

I’ve watched two games of Clemson. I believe LU can beat them. It will be a tough match up but I believed LU can beat them.

JK37 wrote: ↑November 22nd, 2023, 9:14 am

Kricket wrote: ↑November 22nd, 2023, 8:35 am Clemson is a 4 loss ACC team and they are still ahead of us. I don’t think Clemson, Tennessee, or NC State should be ahead of us, but I suppose what matters now is that we win and Tulane loses.

Do you think we would beat them if we played them?

Which one? All of them? I think the answer is different by team but I think our resume is better. Clemson and Tennessee probably beat us more than 50% of the time we play, but I think NC State we probably win more than half.

I don’t think that is the only question when ranking, particularly for the CFP. Resume should dictate more than eye test or efficiency calculations. Our SOR is 15 which is better than all of those teams (and quite a few others ranked ahead of us). We should be rewarded for what we’ve been able to accomplish and the consistency it takes to do what we’ve done. I’m not sure any of those teams would be able to do what we did with our schedule with how inconsistent they are.

See, that’s where I think you’re wrong. The ultimate purpose of the CFP is to put the best 4 teams into a playoff to find one national champion. Resume is a part, and a small one at that. The committee has been put in place to come to a collective agreement about who are the 4 best. Resume and metrics and records can be used, but only insomuch as they project who might be better. Each team can’t play every other team in a given season, so we use the tools at our disposal to try to estimate who would win if the teams did play.

For example: with the same record, Alabama should never be ranked higher than Texas, because Texas beat Alabama - in Tuscaloosa, no less.

All this crap about ratings and metrics and FPI, SOR - it’s all crap. And it’s neat to see your team do well and be on a list. It’s also fun to debate. But the fact remains: Who do you think would win? Metrics like SOR might help answer where two teams haven’t played. But just watch the teams. Do you think LU would beat a team if matched up today on a neutral field? That’s it.

JK37 wrote: ↑November 22nd, 2023, 3:39 pm See, that’s where I think you’re wrong. The ultimate purpose of the CFP is to put the best 4 teams into a playoff to find one national champion. Resume is a part, and a small one at that. The committee has been put in place to come to a collective agreement about who are the 4 best. Resume and metrics and records can be used, but only insomuch as they project who might be better. Each team can’t play every other team in a given season, so we use the tools at our disposal to try to estimate who would win if the teams did play.

For example: with the same record, Alabama should never be ranked higher than Texas, because Texas beat Alabama - in Tuscaloosa, no less.

All this crap about ratings and metrics and FPI, SOR - it’s all crap. And it’s neat to see your team do well and be on a list. It’s also fun to debate. But the fact remains: Who do you think would win? Metrics like SOR might help answer where two teams haven’t played. But just watch the teams. Do you think LU would beat a team if matched up today on a neutral field? That’s it.

If that’s the case, Alabama and Texas are different teams right now than when they played. We should really heavily discount wins/losses at the beginning of the season vs the end, especially for teams with young QBs.

FSU should have dropped more than one slot in the rankings as they lost their star QB.

A last second loss on one play is almost the same as a win on a last second play under your logic.

The reality is that winning should matter.

Winning matters most. That’s why a last second, 1-point win is nowhere close to the same as a close loss.

JK37 wrote: ↑November 22nd, 2023, 6:37 pm Winning matters most. That’s why a last second, 1-point win is nowhere close to the same as a close loss.

Ok, well I would say your view of how rankings should happen really deemphasizes results.

Theoretically a team that has no wins could be ranked over a team that is 11-0 as long as enough people think that winless team would win head to head. That should never happen because the results haven’t been there to justify that… even if the winless team appears much more talented and likely would win head to head.

Clemson isn’t even top 5 in a weak ACC, why would any committee think they should have a chance to play for a championship more than an undefeated Liberty team? They’ve been in had their chance and are 4-4 in the ACC. Not one loss, two, or even three. FOUR losses in the ACC and they’re ahead of an 11-0 team. Perhaps they’re more talented but definitely haven’t earned a shot more than Liberty has based on wins and losses.

If Liberty were to play in a game vs. NC State, Tennessee or Clemson it would be interesting because I think our Offensive Line would perform well due to their size. Our rushing attack can complete with most P5 schools IMO. The weak point for Liberty is defense, or course. Our secondary gives up big plays. I think a quality QB with large, fast, athletic receivers would torch Liberty.