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Historians Make Their Predictions

Posted: June 15th, 2008, 8:44 pm
by whmatthews
Surprise, surprise.

http://news.aol.com/elections/story/_a/ ... 1200172348

Historians See Little Chance for McCain
By David Paul Kuhn,Politico.com
Posted: 2008-06-15 20:02:08
(June 15) - One week into the general election, the polls show a dead heat. But many presidential scholars doubt that John McCain stands much of a chance, if any.

Historians belonging to both parties offered a litany of historical comparisons that give little hope to the Republican. Several saw Barack Obama’s prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932.

“This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory,” said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, “Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds.” His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter’s in 1980.

“McCain shouldn’t win it,” said presidential historian Joan Hoff, a professor at Montana State University and former president of the Center for the Study of the Presidency. She compared McCain’s prospects to those of Hubert Humphrey, whose 1968 loss to Richard Nixon resulted in large part from the unpopularity of sitting Democratic president Lyndon Johnson.

Posted: June 15th, 2008, 10:08 pm
by jmdickens
well duh......are country is full of idiots who will vote for him.

Also, poor people

Posted: June 16th, 2008, 8:23 am
by LUconn
oxymoron -
ox·y·mo·ron

noun
conjoining contradictory terms

Posted: June 16th, 2008, 10:38 am
by RagingTireFire
Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't historians vastly more qualified to discuss past events. I mean, that's pretty much the entire job description.

Posted: June 16th, 2008, 9:28 pm
by jmdickens
RagingTireFire wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't historians vastly more qualified to discuss past events. I mean, that's pretty much the entire job description.
bamf

Posted: June 16th, 2008, 10:46 pm
by adam42381
jmdickens wrote:well duh......are country is full of idiots who will vote for him.

Also, poor people
I find it funny that you would begin a sentence about idiots with "are country".

Posted: June 17th, 2008, 9:37 am
by RagingTireFire
jmdickens wrote:bamf
Taking up teleportation there, dickens?

Posted: June 17th, 2008, 9:51 am
by Hold My Own
jmdickens wrote:Also, poor people
Image




my favorite though is Charles Barkley...he summed it up good

"Poor People have been voting for Democrats for the last 50 years, and they are still poor."

Posted: June 17th, 2008, 5:03 pm
by Ed Dantes
You don't have to have a liberal bias to say that Obama is going to win, just common sense.

Posted: June 17th, 2008, 6:59 pm
by Cider Jim
Hold My Own wrote:"Poor People have been voting for Democrats for the last 50 years, and they are still poor."
Which includes the whole state of West Virginia.

Posted: June 18th, 2008, 1:51 am
by mrmacphisto
Ed Dantes wrote:You don't have to have a liberal bias to say that Obama is going to win, just common sense.
:nod