A Sea Of Red

I've been thinking about something ever since I mentioned something in the election thread about automation and job obsolescence. I am conservative in most ways you can think of. Most of us here are. We're all about capitalism, government staying out, down with welfare, etc.

BUT, the future is coming. I read somewhere that the largest occupation group in the US is drivers. I don't know if that's true but a lot of people do that. The google cars will put the out of work. Manual labor will one day all be done by robots. That may seem far off right now, but I really think that's going to advance quickly. Whether it's soon or not I guess isn't the point. It's inevitable. IBM's Watson and whatever AI is developed from it is working it's way to eliminating many white collar jobs as well. Even doctors seem vulnerable. So who's safe? The executives in charge of implementing that stuff, artists and other creative types, politicians, and maybe a few other things here and there. At that point, are we all leftists? I don't see any way around redistribution if a large percentage of the population can't earn money to live.

"Even so come, Lord Jesus".

So at what point is welfare no longer a safety net but a basic income is a human right? I feel like a bernie sanders moron but it just seems like it has to come to that eventually. I have a hard time envisioning a peaceful change fromy the labor based economy we have now to our email where we'really taken care of WALL-E style.

Here are some interesting predictions. What will this world look like in 2020? Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

https://www.quora.com/What-will-this-wo ... ke-in-2020

LUconn wrote:So at what point is welfare no longer a safety net but a basic income is a human right? I feel like a bernie sanders moron but it just seems like it has to come to that eventually. I have a hard time envisioning a peaceful change fromy the labor based economy we have now to our email where we'really taken care of WALL-E style.

I was thinking more iRobot with my boy Will. That being said, when watching that movie several years ago, I thought along the same sort of lines as what you are thinking now in this thread. Everyone gets a robot with AI that essentially works for them? So what do the people do all day?

just like most things "automated" today. they require operators, overseers and require much more repair men.

john deere has automated its assembly line but still maintains almost the same amount of workers. they have robots that can make weld decisions and stuff, its pretty crazy. just a different field or expertise is required.

RubberMallet wrote: just a different field or expertise is required.

In the airline industry smaller skill set needed and new hire training time is 1/8 what it use to be. Top out wages are dropping from $30 per hour to $11, permanently. Lots of IT opportunities going to the Phillipines and India for an even smaller wage. You can't turn this stuff off.

My John Deere 5000 series was made in India.

RubberMallet wrote:just like most things "automated" today. they require operators, overseers and require much more repair men.

john deere has automated its assembly line but still maintains almost the same amount of workers. they have robots that can make weld decisions and stuff, its pretty crazy. just a different field or expertise is required.

This is true of today's relatively primitive automation software. But when you've got advanced robots that are literally doing all labor, they're taking care of each other. And AI at that point is doing the engineering. There will be very few humans needed to run the ship. Like just executives. I think at a certain point, everything just gets nationalized. We'll be one giant company running all industries, and the elected politicians will be the board members.

LUconn wrote:

RubberMallet wrote:just like most things "automated" today. they require operators, overseers and require much more repair men.

john deere has automated its assembly line but still maintains almost the same amount of workers. they have robots that can make weld decisions and stuff, its pretty crazy. just a different field or expertise is required.

This is true of today's relatively primitive automation software. But when you've got advanced robots that are literally doing all labor, they're taking care of each other. And AI at that point is doing the engineering. There will be very few humans needed to run the ship. Like just executives. I think at a certain point, everything just gets nationalized. We'll be one giant company running all industries, and the elected politicians will be the board members.

I agree.

LUconn wrote:

RubberMallet wrote:just like most things "automated" today. they require operators, overseers and require much more repair men.

john deere has automated its assembly line but still maintains almost the same amount of workers. they have robots that can make weld decisions and stuff, its pretty crazy. just a different field or expertise is required.

This is true of today's relatively primitive automation software. But when you've got advanced robots that are literally doing all labor, they're taking care of each other. And AI at that point is doing the engineering. There will be very few humans needed to run the ship. Like just executives. I think at a certain point, everything just gets nationalized. We'll be one giant company running all industries, and the elected politicians will be the board members.

hard labor from a human perspective may not be a requirement in future society, but there will still be plenty of work to be done. creativity will still be a human requirement.

As the tech has invaded and taken jobs you see less direct labor expenses related to the manufacturing sector. As a result, a big focus has been placed on overhead, because the % of fixed overhead costs has increased as a % of the total expenses of a company. Meaning a lot of jobs have moved into the services, sales, admin, etc. type expense classifications for most companies.

Sometimes I think maybe the government uses it's power as a regulatory body to create the need for new jobs/occupations. It sounds backwards and burdensome, but if you think about it from a progressive/keynesian perspective, you can see it.

RubberMallet wrote:just like most things "automated" today. they require operators, overseers and require much more repair men.

john deere has automated its assembly line but still maintains almost the same amount of workers. they have robots that can make weld decisions and stuff, its pretty crazy. just a different field or expertise is required.

Yeah, until the robots are able to build and repair themselves

RubberMallet wrote:creativity will still be a human requirement.

Until we "master" how to make the AIs sentient

you have to take off the asimov glasses. the moment ai becomse sentient, we won't have to worry about this as we'll be enslaved.

RubberMallet wrote:you have to take off the asimov glasses. the moment ai becomse sentient, we won't have to worry about this as we'll be enslaved.

What? No 3 Laws of Robotics?

Interesting thoughts:
http://observer.com/2016/07/no-humans-w ... ar-travel/

James Pethokoukis has done some good writing on the economics of automation.

https://www.aei.org/scholar/james-pethokoukis/

I'm less concerned about robot automation right now than I am of drones. Those Roombas haven't fired many janitors yet.

I'll talk about it later