[Sly Fox]

Hey Olldflame ... I hope you have all the hatches battened down.

[olldflame]

Hey Olldflame ... I hope you have all the hatches battened down.

I appreciate your concern Sly. 24 hours ago it looked like Isaac's eye was headed straight for my location here in La Romana, which is on the south coast of the DR, about 60 miles east of Santo Domingo. I'm only 300 yards from the ocean, but a good 30-40 feet above sea level, so no worries about storm surge. The storm has since taken a more westerly direction, which is good for me, but unfortunately means it will hit Haiti hard, in an area where there are still 400,000 people living in tents.

[jbock13]

The tropics is an area that I'm still educating myself about. However I see this missing to the west of Florida and landing somewhere between Pensacola and New Orleans.

I also don't see this being any stronger than a Cat 2.

[Purple Haize]

I thought you were talking about thebar tender on TheLove Boat. Or more obscurely, the Christian Comedy troupe from the 80's Isaac Air Freight....l

[jbock13]

The tropics is an area that I'm still educating myself about. However I see this missing to the west of Florida and landing somewhere between Pensacola and New Orleans.

I also don't see this being any stronger than a Cat 2.

New Euro model has it tracking towards extreme western LA.

[Purple Haize]

Isn't the Euro losing its value?

[Sly Fox]

Extreme western Louisiana is essentially the Golden Triangle of East Texas.

Glad to hear you are doing well, olldflame. I know there are a ton of folks in Port au Prince right now scrambling for cover.

[jbock13]

The further west it tracks, the least likely it is to be a major hurricane. If it doesn't strengthen, it's not organized, and therefore will continue west.

There's reasons for this but I know nobody cares about the specifics.

I'll keep an eye out but considering those of you in Texas have been through these things many times before, this shouldn't be a big deal at all.

[thepostman]

I am trying to figure out what would be worse for Tampa. The RNC or this hurricane coming...

Ok, that isn't even really close. Its clearly the RNC that will cause more damage

[jbock13]

I am trying to figure out what would be worse for Tampa. The RNC or this hurricane coming...

Ok, that isn't even really close. Its clearly the RNC that will cause more damage

You'll get some wind and rain, but you won't take a direct hit. As it stands right now.

[Sly Fox]

If it gets into the Gulf of Mexico at this time of year, it could gain intensity at a ridiculously fast rate of speed. Rita followed a similar path in 2005.

[thepostman]

I am trying to figure out what would be worse for Tampa. The RNC or this hurricane coming...

Ok, that isn't even really close. Its clearly the RNC that will cause more damage

You'll get some wind and rain, but you won't take a direct hit. As it stands right now.

You do realize I am completely aware of this and was just taking the opportunity to take a jab at the RNC, right????

[jbock13]

Yeah I realized. But I thought the first part was serious. Turns out I was wrong.

[jack_sparrow81]

The Tampa/Suncoast area need the economic boost from RNC, regardless of where you stand politically

[ATrain]

Ah hurricane season...keep them down there please.

[thepostman]

The Tampa/Suncoast area need the economic boost from RNC, regardless of where you stand politically

I keep hearing this, but this has been a record year for the hotel industry in the area. I am not saying the RNC won't give it another boost, but it is insane the amount of money pouring into this event. It is much more then what is even being reported. I am not saying it won't help the local area at all, but I just am not sure if the amount of money spent is justified...

Yeah I realized. But I thought the first part was serious. Turns out I was wrong.

Yeah, its non stop hurricane talk around here, haha

[jcmanson]

I just want to know how this is going to affect the weather on Saturday in Winston Salem

[jbock13]

If it keeps tracking to the west, it shouldn't affect it. Maybe a few showers from the result of the spinning low, whether it gets cut off or not, but as of right now it looks like the weather should be good.

Of course, that's eight days out.

The models are also showing NW winds behind the remains of Isaac, which means it wouldn't be too warm of a day. Probably in the 70's, as it stands right now.

[Humble_Opinion]

If it keeps tracking to the west, it shouldn't affect it. Maybe a few showers from the result of the spinning low, whether it gets cut off or not, but as of right now it looks like the weather should be good.

Of course, that's eight days out.

The models are also showing NW winds behind the remains of Isaac, which means it wouldn't be too warm of a day. Probably in the 70's, as it stands right now.

Most of the models I've seen show it coming ashore somewhere between Pensacola and Tallahassee. Over the past several days the models have been firming up a bit about this general track, though JBock is right that the trend has been for a more westward track off the coast of FL (which is better news for Tampa Bay) Though TB should still keep an eye on it because the right front quadrant tends to be the most dangerous.

Also, these models mostly confirm a track up the Eastern Seaboard, but over land. Some of them show forward momentum slowing for a potential stall, which would be the worst case scenario for college football. Others show the typical path where once over land the track speeds up and it makes an abrupt exit out to the Atlantic. Even still, the current timeline shows a landfall between Monday-Tuesday next week and I would find it hard to imagine that it wouldn't make its exit back to the Atlantic by Friday evening.

[jbock13]

dang you're good. and I agree.

I still think the models are still too far to the east, but we'll see. Plenty of time to see the results. We're not prophets!

[Humble_Opinion]

dang you're good. and I agree.

I still think the models are still too far to the east, but we'll see. Plenty of time to see the results. We're not prophets!

Yeah I thought this too JB, but with El Nino arriving the jet stream will tend to split with one trough forming further south near the Gulf. You can sort of see this now http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx. This also leads to the long-term forecast this winter, which is supposedly going to be more active for storms Let's talk about that too!

[jbock13]

You're right again humble.

[Humble_Opinion]

Katrina Part Deux? This could be a scary one... If the eye goes over top or just to the west of New Orleans even as a Cat. 2 - bad things will happen. They still aren't prepared down there.

[Sly Fox]

The next 12 hours or so will determine quite a bit. We still are looking OK over here in Houston but in my 20+ years following Gulf storms, I have seen some crazy movement in unexpected directions.

I guess I have a little more faith in the levy system today than 7 years ago. But based on the Katrina/Rita experience, South Louisiana & Coastal Mississippi are going to be nothing but ghost towns by tonight.

[jbock13]

I mean, honestly when they live in a flood plain, this isn't a surprise...

Sly, I still think you'll stay out of all the mess.