[belcherboy]

IMO, this election is over. 30 days out and McCain is in a free-fall.

So far, in daily state tracking polls, he's lost the following states that Bush took in 2004:

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia. Being down in Florida and Ohio now is a nightmare. North Carolina is tied, and McCain is on the verge of losing Missouri and Indiana. It will take a miracle to stop this slide, let alone reverse it.

Palin did well in the debates last night, but not enough to spark the GOP again.

McCain has not only destroyed his campaign, he may take the entire GOP down the drain with him. I'm not sure any GOP candidate would have stood a chance this year though!

[Baldspot]

I agree with your last statement especially. Voter fatigue is the over riding factor every 8-12 years in politics. At least the Republican apparatus, that decides which races to spend money on, will remain somewhat in conservative hands for the next go-round.

[rogers3]

At least the Republican apparatus, that decides which races to spend money on, will remain somewhat in conservative hands for the next go-round.

Sad thing is that we might end up with both houses of Congress and the Presidency in Democratic hands. I even know some major libs who don't like what could happen in that scenario, and the Republican apparatus might be rendered irreversibly impotent if such were to be the case.

[Hold My Own]

At one point I got really sad last nite and turned off the debate, and then I turned on the news and gained a little hope...

[FlameNForest]

I want to know how McCain ended up winning the Republican nomination in a rout, especially after he appeared to be reeling last fall.

But I know most of this election isn't about McCain or Obama. It's about idiots wanting change for the sake of change. With the atmosphere out there now, Michael Dukakis could've probably won this year.

[ATrain]

I'm confused...the latest Mason-Dixon poll has McCain up by 3 in Virginia

[4everfsu]

It is some in the liberal media wanting to call the game over for McCain, so no one will vote for him.

[belcherboy]

I'm confused...the latest Mason-Dixon poll has McCain up by 3 in Virginia

I've seen it both ways. It really doesn't matter because it shouldn't be that close. McCain only has to lose a few of the GOP states from 2004 for this election to become no contest. IMO, right now McCain is fighting to try and keep it close, rather than to win it. He has completely pulled out of Michigan with 30 days left till the election. If a GOP candidate believes he cannot win in Michigan with a month left in the campaign this year, than that is a fairly good indicator of what will happen nationally IMO. (Michigan has a very unpopular Democrat Governor, and just had a HUGE scandal with the Democrat Mayor of Detroit.) Michigan has been owned by the Democrats for a long time, but things couldn't be any better for the GOP taking. Unfortunately they have to spend money, and time in the states that should have already been locked up.

Again, I HOPE I'm wrong, but it would take a miracle for Obama not to be our president.

[flamesbball84]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... vs_mccain/

That map is based on the average of all the polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... a-225.html

This also based on the average of all polls shows that McCain is down 5.6%, and generally the margin of error on polls like this is around 3-5%, so basically it's still pretty darn close.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... cain/#data
There are only 2 states listed that Obama is winning convincingly and that Bush won in 2004: Iowa and New Mexico. The rest are toss ups still with either candidate leading by well under 4%.

May look bleak now, but just wait for when this bailout thing eventually passes and McCain's numbers will go up. And don't underestimate the race and familiarity thing, many articles have come out and said they anticipate McCain getting between a 4-10% increase because he's white and/or because people are still largely unaware of anything Obama stands for other than he simply wants change for the sake of change.

If McCain loses, this should have been seen years ago. The nation gets sick of the same part in the White House for 8 straight years regardless of rather they actually do a good job or not. America can't handle any type of national political consistency.

[TDDance234]

This is just a repete of 4 years ago. The media was declaring Kerry victorious before October even began.

[belcherboy]

This is just a repete of 4 years ago. The media was declaring Kerry victorious before October even began.

I hope you are right, but the polls are MUCH worse than 2004 from what I've heard. Maybe I'm just believing the hype!

[WinthropEagleFan]

It is some in the liberal media wanting to call the game over for McCain, so no one will vote for him.

It's sad that people base their voting behavior on polls, but I know that it happens.

[Baldspot]

At least the Republican apparatus, that decides which races to spend money on, will remain somewhat in conservative hands for the next go-round.

Sad thing is that we might end up with both houses of Congress and the Presidency in Democratic hands. I even know some major libs who don't like what could happen in that scenario, and the Republican apparatus might be rendered irreversibly impotent if such were to be the case.

Could be the case but remember we were in the same situation during the first two years of the Clinton administration and good things happened during Clinton's first mid-term elections. Thank goodness for the filibuster.

[Baldspot]

I want to know how McCain ended up winning the Republican nomination in a rout, especially after he appeared to be reeling last fall.

Conservatives split their vote between Thompson, Romney, Huckabee and Paul. Guiliani never got going allowing McCain to take all of the moderate vote.

[rogers3]

At least the Republican apparatus, that decides which races to spend money on, will remain somewhat in conservative hands for the next go-round.

Sad thing is that we might end up with both houses of Congress and the Presidency in Democratic hands. I even know some major libs who don't like what could happen in that scenario, and the Republican apparatus might be rendered irreversibly impotent if such were to be the case.

Could be the case but remember we were in the same situation during the first two years of the Clinton administration and good things happened during Clinton's first mid-term elections. Thank goodness for the filibuster.

True. I believe many Americans who have rarely heard the word or know about its use will become much more familiar with the term.

[Hold My Own]

This was one of the funniest things I remember in Civics class...when I heard that some of these people will read the phonebook I laughed so hard and knew that would stick with me forever

[Ed Dantes]

I want to know how McCain ended up winning the Republican nomination in a rout, especially after he appeared to be reeling last fall.

Conservatives split their vote between Thompson, Romney, Huckabee and Paul. Guiliani never got going allowing McCain to take all of the moderate vote.

The primaries were also slanted towards McCain's favor. The first primary was in New Hampshire (Iowa was a caucus), a state that has a huge independent population. Plus, McCain was a star there eight years ago. Winning that dealt a blow to Romney, who was hoping his popularity in neighboring Massachusetts was going to push him to the top.

Romney then focused on a few states (Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin) while forgoing South Carolina. While Romney's strategy netted him more delegates and more victories, it wasn't as valuable as South Carolina. McCain won S.C., which allowed him to paint himself as the 'comeback kid' (after losing there in 2000, and subsequently, the nomination).

Meanwhile, Rudy was waiting in Florida. His candidacy sunk ever since the ill-advised Pat Robertson endorsement, but he was hoping that Florida would spring-board him to the nomination. Florida though, had what's known as an 'open primary', meaning any registered voter from either party was able to cast a vote in the GOP primary. It's believed that, after the democrats stripped Florida of its delegates because of a violation of party rules (which stated that no one can move their primaries up before Super Tuesday), many Democrat voters walked into the polling booth, grabbed a GOP ballot, and cast a vote for McCain.

McCain's win prompted Rudy Giuliani to drop out. Rudy voters went to McCain in big states such as New York and California, which gave McCain wins in those states on Super Tuesday. Romney fell behind on the delegate count, so he dropped his candidacy.

And that's why McCain is your presidential nominee.

[ALUmnus]

Let's not forget about the damage Huckles did to Romney. What an unfortunate thing it was to have him in the race.

[Baldspot]

Unfortunately, I agree with Alumnus on the Huck candidacy. We had some lively debates on that subject last year.

I also think some Christians had a problem voting for a Morman, although in retrospect he was probably a conservative's best hope in the current economic climate.

[belcherboy]

Unfortunately, I agree with Alumnus on the Huck candidacy. We had some lively debates on that subject last year.

I also think some Christians had a problem voting for a Morman, although in retrospect he was probably a conservative's best hope in the current economic climate.

I voted for him in the primaries in Michigan and was given the strangest looks when I told some of the people on my church staff and in my church. The vast majority were drinking the Huckabee kool-aid and voted for him in the primaries. I think Huck is a good guy, (better than McCain IMO), but I thought Romney was MONEY when it came to this election! His debate skills IMO would have whiped the floor clean of Obama. He had some really good ideas on our economy. I also think he would have also smashed the Mormon stigma with a selection like Palin. I'm not sure if he would have chosen her, but I a Romney/Palin card seems better (they definitely would have the Ken and Barbie look to them). Of course hindsight is always 20/20 now for many in the GOP, but I've screamed it since the start, McCain just isn't good enough to win a general election.

[Ed Dantes]

Unfortunately, I agree with Alumnus on the Huck candidacy. We had some lively debates on that subject last year.

I also think some Christians had a problem voting for a Morman, although in retrospect he was probably a conservative's best hope in the current economic climate.

I voted for him in the primaries in Michigan and was given the strangest looks when I told some of the people on my church staff and in my church. The vast majority were drinking the Huckabee kool-aid and voted for him in the primaries. I think Huck is a good guy, (better than McCain IMO), but I thought Romney was MONEY when it came to this election! His debate skills IMO would have whiped the floor clean of Obama. He had some really good ideas on our economy. I also think he would have also smashed the Mormon stigma with a selection like Palin. I'm not sure if he would have chosen her, but I a Romney/Palin card seems better (they definitely would have the Ken and Barbie look to them). Of course hindsight is always 20/20 now for many in the GOP, but I've screamed it since the start, McCain just isn't good enough to win a general election.

Well, thank turd blossoms like James Dobson who vowed he wasn't going to vote for a Mormon... That's why we have McCain (who Dobson also vowed not to vote for, but later came around to saying he could).

[Baldspot]

In full disclosure, I argued against a Huckabee candidacy due to concerns of his electability in the general election, then wound up voting for him in the PA primary because by then McCain had the nomination, Huckabee was still on the ballot and I wanted to send a message to the Republicans not to forget their best voting block.

[01LUGrad]

Maybe I'm just in a pessimistic mood because of the Cubs, but I see Obama running away with this thing. I know there is a thread for EC predictions, but my math has him at 289 electoral votes.

I'm still kind of mehh on McCain. The inital thought of Palin as VP was exciting, but let's face it, she's in way over her head on this one. I just hope her name on this ticket doesn't ruin the rest of her political career (whatever that may be).

[belcherboy]

Maybe I'm just in a pessimistic mood because of the Cubs, but I see Obama running away with this thing. I know there is a thread for EC predictions, but my math has him at 289 electoral votes.

I'm still kind of mehh on McCain. The inital thought of Palin as VP was exciting, but let's face it, she's in way over her head on this one. I just hope her name on this ticket doesn't ruin the rest of her political career (whatever that may be).

The best thing she has going for her now (outside of a miracle win by McCain) is if there is a 269 tie for president, and the GOP part of the Senate has enough votes to force the VP (Cheney) to decide the next VP. If she can become Obama's VP, that would be HUGE for her. That is obviously a LONG shot.

IMO Palin will go the route of guys like Dan Quayle. She won't recover from this, politically speaking, anytime soon. The only way to beat the perceptions that the media and democrats have laid on her, is to win the election and prove them wrong. This isn't going to happen, and she is not going to be in the public eye as governor of Alaska. She is young enough that she could make a run again, but I think it would take at least 2-3, if not more, general elections for her to make a real run again. That run would have to be as president, as I can't imagine anyone would pick her as their VP again. I just don't see her doing this again, if they were to lose.

[Hold My Own]

You guys act like this girl has completely bombed...she's had her moments but she's done VERY well over all....and her numbers have proved that....she's not done yet