[Hold My Own]

I heard this on the radio but cant find the link. Stanford study shows McCain getting a 6% push on election day b/c of race. The study showed that many are saying simply what is popular right now but when it comes to voting time their choice will be different. Some say it could be as high as 9-10%

[RubberMallet]

link please so i go get some democrats all riled up

[Hold My Own]

http://news.yahoo.com/page/election-200 ... obama-race


along the same lines but not the study I was talking about...I'll find it

[Hold My Own]

I see everyone talking about it but cant find the actual info

http://www.dailypress.com/dp-local_squi ... 869.column

In a wide-ranging survey on racial attitudes, Stanford researchers found that more than a third of white Democrats and independents hold negative views toward African-Americans and are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't hold such views.

The research suggests that such attitudes could cost a wider margin of votes than the 2.5 percentage points that separated the presidential candidates in the 2004 election. Current polls show Obama and McCain in a virtual tie.

The study also suggested that Obama could lose votes due to the "Wilder effect" or the "Tom Bradley effect" — white voters who say they will vote for Obama but in the privacy of a voting booth cannot fall behind a black man. Those numbers might be greater than previously believed.

[LUconn]

man. White people are brutal.

[TDDance234]

Colin Cowherd of all people was talking about this a little last week...it will be interesting to see the exit polls.

[LUconn]

I would really really like to see a chart like the one above about what black people think about white people. Not that it's a determining factor in the presidential race, but just out of curiosity.

[Hold My Own]

I would really really like to see a chart like the one above about what black people think about white people. Not that it's a determining factor in the presidential race, but just out of curiosity.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108040/Candi ... -Race.aspx


Go to the Non-Hispanic Black part...there's a hint

93% to 3%


I know what you were asking for but this is about the only thing I could think of

[olldflame]

Ask Harold Ford about this.

I will not be voting for Obama because of his liberal voting record and his lack of experience, but it is a sad fact that we still have not "arrived" in terms of having a population where everyone believes that "all men are created equal."

[Ed Dantes]

This is all called "The Wilder Effect"... which people say is somewhere between bogus and anachronistic.

[olldflame]

Wilder may be ancient history Ed, but something funny happened in Tennessee just a couple of years ago. Ford was up several points in ALL the polls right up to the election. He is now the chairman of something called the Democratic Leadership Counsel.

[ALUmnus]

Polls, people, polls. I find it amazing that we give so much importance to them. Polls are used to create news, to create opinion, and to create results, not report them. In this instance it is used to create guilt in the minds of Americans to sway voters, and additionally create an "out" when the minority candidate loses. "it wasn't because they weren't qualified or because they're just absolutely horrible, it's because America is a racist country". Obama now has a built in excuse if he fails. I also wish they would outlaw exit polls at the voting sites.

[RubberMallet]

i find people who point to any poll as insufferable. it completely baffles me...per polling results, gore and kerry should of been presidents of the united states...they are never correct.

[4everfsu]

If people lie to the pollsters about who they are going to vote, they will lie for the exit polls.

Of course , I can some democraps crying if obama loses that there was a conspiracy, voting machine malfunctions due to the fact the polls said Obama was winning.

[flamesbball84]

Ask Harold Ford about this.

I will not be voting for Obama because of his liberal voting record and his lack of experience, but it is a sad fact that we still have not "arrived" in terms of having a population where everyone believes that "all men are created equal."

just be glad you don't live in europe. it makes the US seem like a bastion for racial tolerance.

[Hold My Own]

Polls are important though....not to tell who is "truly ahead" but it influences people one way or the other....keep in mind we live in a world that believes everything they read on the internet and watch on CNN...so these are the same people that see Obama leading and think. "Yeah, he's not so bad after all, and at least I'm in the majority"


While those who actually have common sense dont pay much attention to polls they do effect a lot of people.


But essentially this article is saying you cant pay much attention to polls anyways, b/c the numbers are wrong by 6-9%

[flamesbball84]

go to realclearpolitics to get a better indicator - they take all the polls nad average them out (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... a-225.html) it's only a 3.7% difference that way, which is within the margin of error, so basically it's a dead heat still

[Ed Dantes]

In any event...

After actually researching this, I found something very interesting...

This entire 6% bump is predicated on the notion that someone tells a pollster one thing, and then heads to the voting booth and does another. People chalk this up to racism...

But it's a bunch of baloney. If you look at the poll numbers before the states in the primaries and compare them to the actual results, you'll find that Barack Obama actually did BETTER than the polls by approximately 3.3% -- which is within the margin of error.

If you break it down by region -- you'll notice that in the south, it's actually the opposite from the Wilder Effect. Those supposed racist rednecks (as portrayed by the media) had the biggest discrepancy between the polls and the actual vote. In the south, the polls had Clinton up by 4.4% -- but actually voted for Obama by 2.8% -- a 7.2% shift.

In each of the regions, the only one that saw a "wilder Effect" was in the Northeast (home of the, according to the media, sophisticated non-racist types) -- that won saw Hillary Clinton outperforming her poll numbers by a negligible 1.8 percent.