- November 30th, 2006, 12:56 pm
#44331
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s (NYSE:WMT - news) lackluster December sales forecast on Thursday cast doubt on its fourth-quarter prospects, while its nearest rival, Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT - news), continued to shine.
With strong November sales, Target widened the growth gap with Wal-Mart, and its monthly sales at stores open at least a year -- or same-store sales -- have now exceeded Wal-Mart's in 39 of the last 40 months.
"If both companies are around the middle of their December guidance, next month will make 40 of the last 41," ThinkEquity Partners analyst Edward Weller wrote in a note to clients.
"Since we think that Target will outperform Wal-Mart in January --if only because of the greater importance of gift cards -- January will make 41 of the last 42. And so on."
Wal-Mart posted a 0.1 percent dip in November same-store sales, its first monthly decline in more than a decade, while Target's rose 5.9 percent. Last month, Wal-Mart's same-store sales were up 0.5 percent while Target's rose 3.9 percent.
But the bigger surprise for Wall Street was Wal-Mart's December forecast calling for same-store sales to be flat to up 1 percent. Analysts had said that the company would need at least a 2 percent gain in December to meet its fourth-quarter forecast for 1 percent to 2 percent same-store sales growth.
Target expects same-store sales growth of 3.5 percent to 5.5 percent for December, which is typically the biggest shopping month of the year.
Wal-Mart's disappointing forecast comes despite efforts to slash prices on popular electronics, toys and other items to draw more holiday shoppers. Wal-Mart said November customer traffic actually declined, while Target's rose.
Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, has also been remodeling stores and upgrading merchandise in the hope of appealing to a broader base of customers.
'TEDIOUS' EXCUSE
Wal-Mart blamed the poor sales on tough comparisons against last year's results, which were inflated as hurricane victims restocked. Apparel sales have also suffered as its trendy clothing lines drew a mixed response from customers.
Bernard Sosnick, retail analyst with Oppenheimer & Co., said the post-hurricane excuse "is getting tedious.
"Flattish December sales would mean the huge effort to upgrade the shopping experience would not produce the benefit in the fourth quarter that had been expected," he added.
Sosnick lowered his fourth-quarter earnings forecast to 88 cents per share from 90 cents.
Wal-Mart is expected to update its fourth-quarter forecast when it reports December sales results.
Wal-Mart said electronics sold well in November, which suggests that its price cuts on items such as plasma televisions did catch customers' attention.
But Ken Perkins, president of research firm Retail Metrics, said shoppers may have cherry-picked those discounted items and avoided higher-margin goods in other parts of the store.
"I think Target did a much better job of being in stock on their 'doorbuster' items and being able to get consumers to go out and shop the rest of the store than Wal-Mart did," he said.
Shares of Wal-Mart dipped 43 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $46.46 in early New York Stock Exchange trading. Target was off 53 cents, or 0.9 percent, at $57.32 as the entire retailing sector came under pressure.
Wal-Mart's shares trade at about 14.6 times analysts' profit forecasts for next year, compared with Target's multiple of 16.1.