[El Scorcho]

Not trying to be a jerk but that seems way out there.

That's good because that would be a really strange thing to be a jerk about. It's just an opinion.

But, for what it's worth...

- In 2008 the GOP had ticket that was less than motivating. The 2012 ticket isn't fantastic, but it's a dramatic improvement over 2008. Even my ultra-Republican parents had trouble imagining Palin as VP, so these "undecided" folks most of have really had trouble.

- In 2008 Obama had a ridiculous amount of momentum with young voters. That's partially gone now, IMO. Some of the 66% of 18-29 year olds who voted for him previously won't do that this time. They're jaded now.

- Traditional Republicans are more motivated this time, for a number of reasons. The biggest seems to be that a lot of them just don't like the President. They didn't like him in 2008, but after four years they've got a record that'll help win some people over to their side.

- Obama pulled 52.9% in 2008. (45.7% to McCain) With some of his base unhappy after four years, I assume they don't show up with the same numbers as in 2008. I also think he'll lose some of the "undecided" crowd that went his way.

Given his current ratings numbers and the general temperament of the country, I don't think a 8% drop crazy. I just don't think he's got the pull he did in 2008. And I don't think this is a Bush/Gore situation. He's an incumbent. People know him now, and most of them don't seem happy.

We shall see.

[bradyfan]

You do bring up some good points but I don't think that equates to Romney getting 55%. That's a huge percentage. One thing you brought up that I do disagree with is this:

- In 2008 Obama had a ridiculous amount of momentum with young voters. That's partially gone now, IMO. Some of the 66% of 18-29 year olds who voted for him previously won't do that this time. They're jaded now.

This isn't true. I'll see if I can find a stat for you but the young voters are still here. Everyone in my quad has said that they're voting for Obama. Look at the comments on Twitter and you'll see that 18-29 year olds are very much passionate about this election. I've talked with a professor at Virginia Western Community College who runs a political club on the campus, he even said that this has been one of the most impressive years for involvement among this age group. Additionally, Obama appeals to this age group much more so than Romney.

I wouldn't argue that this age group is going to sway the election. However, I think it's going to have enough of an effect to keep Romney from getting 55%. If Romney does get 55%, a lot of things would have to happen in the next few weeks and it would absolutely be historic.

[jbock13]

But who are these so called experts? Do they have their own agenda and narrative to advance?

One "expert" I heard was Ben Stein who actually thinks Romney has 0 shot of winning the election. Another that I follow is Larry Sabato who actually has a history of being very accurate and slightly leans Republican. I can provide a few others if you like. I definitely haven't heard one person say that Romney has a chance at taking 55%. That seems a little outrageous to me. I would love to hear some logistics behind ElScorcho's prediction outside of a gut feeling. Not trying to be a jerk but that seems way out there.

Those our their opinions. And mine are mine. And based on data I have looked at I can tell you this race is 50/50. And in my opinion, leaning Romney's way.

With all due respect, you're dead wrong about youth enthusiasm for Obama in this election. These idiots believed Obama would pay for their school and gas. They believe they were lied to. They hate Romney, but they simply won't show up.

[rogers3]

With all due respect, you're dead wrong about youth enthusiasm for Obama in this election. These idiots believed Obama would pay for their school and gas. They believe they were lied to. They hate Romney, but they simply won't show up.

Youth and the 47% of the voters that Romney isn't interested in... that would be the 47 percent of welfare recipients that use and abuse the system. I think both will have lackluster showings particularly the leeches, who haven't really seen all the promises of free stuff that they thought were offered by Obama.
I say our youth are idiots if they want to stick with the status quo... but hey, they will be paying for it in the future, so I'll tolerate their ignorance.

I'm looking forward to Obama going after the 47% comment and hearing Romney stick it in his ear, but I believe that Obama won't be touching that, since most will be in total agreement after they hear the context of the comment.

[jbock13]

For the record I'm young and part of the 53%. But I'm still pretty ignorant. Though youth is the time you test your ideals. I believe much differently than I did just five years ago.

[Purple Haize]

BRADY you have been listening to your alter ego too much. There are models out their showing how Romney can win with out winning both Ohio and FL. The man reason are the handful of States that went Obama last time and are now either Romney orlean Romney. Indiana for sure and even Team O is not optimistic about North Carolina.
The youth vote is ALWAYS a fools errand. They did show up in historical numbers last election and Obama got the win. It won't happen this year. I also put credence in Frank Lutzs focus group. He's very cynical but was blown away by last mites reaction. Which leads to the final point. There are oodles of people who voted Obama last time that are going to vote Romney this year. Next to 0% of the people who voted McCain last time are voting Obama this time.
You are the self proclaimed polling guru, and Trump for Prez leader, listen to what both campaigns are saying about their internal numbers over the next week. Last nite WAS a game changer, and its gotta get worse before it gets better for Team OAS they as much as conceded the Ryan/Biteme debate from the get go. So that's two bad weeks of debating beforeObama can even TRY to turn the tide.

[LUconn]

I don't know, Biden is short bus material but he's been around a long time. I've got to assume he knows how to handle himself in the debate arena. He's sure to say something stupid here and there but he won't get walked over.

[Purple Haize]

I don't know, Biden is short bus material but he's been around a long time. I've got to assume he knows how to handle himself in the debate arena. He's sure to say something stupid here and there but he won't get walked over.

Sarah Palin beat him 4 years ago.

[prototype]

I don't know, Biden is short bus material but he's been around a long time. I've got to assume he knows how to handle himself in the debate arena. He's sure to say something stupid here and there but he won't get walked over.

Are you serious? Have you ever watched him in a debate? The guy might be the worst in history. Ryan will wipe the floor with him.

[bradyfan]

BRADY you have been listening to your alter ego too much. There are models out their showing how Romney can win with out winning both Ohio and FL. The man reason are the handful of States that went Obama last time and are now either Romney orlean Romney. Indiana for sure and even Team O is not optimistic about North Carolina.
The youth vote is ALWAYS a fools errand. They did show up in historical numbers last election and Obama got the win. It won't happen this year. I also put credence in Frank Lutzs focus group. He's very cynical but was blown away by last mites reaction. Which leads to the final point. There are oodles of people who voted Obama last time that are going to vote Romney this year. Next to 0% of the people who voted McCain last time are voting Obama this time.
You are the self proclaimed polling guru, and Trump for Prez leader, listen to what both campaigns are saying about their internal numbers over the next week. Last nite WAS a game changer, and its gotta get worse before it gets better for Team OAS they as much as conceded the Ryan/Biteme debate from the get go. So that's two bad weeks of debating beforeObama can even TRY to turn the tide.

This: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

That has Obama with 269 EV votes compared to Romney's 181. Do note that this is before last night's debate. The toss up states are:
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Missouri (10)
Nevada (6)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)

First of all, Romney has to win all of those. Out of the states that are leaning Obama, Ohio and Wisconsin are the only ones that could actually become toss ups. For the sake of this, let's just say they are toss up states. If Obama takes Florida and loses Ohio and Wisconsin, he still wins the election. Romney has to take Florida and he has to take a combination of Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin to have a chance. Even if Romney takes, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado...he can still lose if Obama takes Iowa, Missouri and Nevada.

Even though there are a lot of Obama voters who will vote Romney this time, Obama still took 52.1 compared to McCain's 44.5. That's a whipping and a great great deal of voters would have to switch for Romney to get the win. Also, students are motivated about this year's election. I'm not sure where you're getting information that my generation won't go out and vote. My generation is very dumb, which is why Romney supporters should be scared. It definitely will not be anything like it was 4 years ago, however, I think you'll be surprised at how many show up. Many of my peers are under the impression that Romney is going to take away federal student aid and that's persuading them to be involved. Again, they won't decide the election but I think they'll be enough of them to keep Romney from getting 55%. I don't think Obama will win but there is no way Romney is taking 55%, that's my main point.

[jbock13]

We disagree.

[Purple Haize]

CJBRADYSweat you lost any credibility when you used the phrase 'many of my peers'. First, it's anecdotal. Secondly, by peers do you mean Homeschooled kids who attend a Conservative Christian University?
Also RCP is a metanalysis. It isn't capable of in depth trends. The race is going to be close and because of that Romney's debate performance was HUGE because a percentage point here and there changes a lot

[bradyfan]

CJBRADYSweat you lost any credibility when you used the phrase 'many of my peers'. First, it's anecdotal. Secondly, by peers do you mean Homeschooled kids who attend a Conservative Christian University?
Also RCP is a metanalysis. It isn't capable of in depth trends. The race is going to be close and because of that Romney's debate performance was HUGE because a percentage point here and there changes a lot

"Many of my peers" refers to all of my liberal/democrat friends who are my age. I have a lot of friends like that. My friend is also running one of their victory centers in the Christiansburg area. Also, why are you concluding that home school kids who attend a christian conservative university would have those kind of beliefs? I really would like to know your angle against homeschoolers.

RCP takes almost all of the major polls and averages them together. It's plenty capable of accurately predicting Romney won't be getting 55%. The debate performance was nice but to say it was "huge" is quite an overreaction. Read this from Larry Sabato: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crysta ... it-matter/

I'm not arguing that Romney is going to lose. I think he can win, I just think it will be really close if he does. You've spent a great deal attacking why I believe Romney doesn't have a shot at 55% but yet you haven't told me why he does. Please share how Romney can get 55%. I would also love to hear how the electoral votes don't favor Obama.

[Purple Haize]

Yeah. Not sure where I said he was going to get 55%. I think it's possible that it can be a big win for Romney, I am not betting the house on it.
You may want to look up the following definitions:
Peers
Metanalysis

Where did I say I had a thing against HomeSchoolers? Mighty defensive

[rogers3]

"Many of my peers" refers to all of my liberal/democrat friends who are my age. I have a lot of friends like that. My friend is also running one of their victory centers in the Christiansburg area.

Would you please ask them why they are so beholden to Obama? My guess is that most supporters are Socialist leaning... I have a moderate friend- what some might consider liberal- who is not afraid to say that one of the biggest misjudgements he has ever made was that which led him to vote for Obama. There really is no good reason to support him as he has accomplished little more than ballooning our fiscal problems (not saying McCain wouldn't have done the same).

[TH Spangler]

This: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

Over 100 for Obama from 3 states, CA,IL,NY. All three hopelessly in debt to public sector unions, pensions and their Cadillac healthcare plans? You talk about buying votes? The rest of us will have to bail them out before it's over?

[Purple Haize]

I predict the post debate polls will show Ohio a toss up, Florida leaning odor solid Romney. Most toss ups lean Romney and several 'Lean Obama' either Toss Up or 'Lean Romey'
What's unfortunate about CA is it used to be Republican

[ALUmnus]

Made in Taiwan.

[youtube]

[/youtube]

They have pretty awesome videos for all kinds of current events.

[jbock13]

What's happened in California is so sad. They won't even blame the President for his anti-energy policies, they'll find some way to blame big oil or big pipe or something goofy.

Remember when Bush was President and he wanted to drill in ANWR? And remember the Democrat line was "oh, it would be 5 years before anything would even happen!!!"

Well, it's been five years now.

[Humble_Opinion]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/ins ... a-ohio-va/

So Romney takes the lead in VA and FL according to both Rasmussen and another polling firm and it is virtually dead even in OH.

According to Joe Trippi, online registrations for Republicans started doubling nearly 20 - 30 minutes into the debate Wednesday night and those numbers have not backed off yet. Not only that Brady, but Registrations for Democrats are way down in comparison to Republicans in all swing states. Here's the article:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2012/0 ... 91564.html

Ohio is not alone. An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it's down down 19.7 percent.

You're placing way too much stock in the polls that are drastically over-sampling Democrats in their polls. They are manufacturing these polls to create headlines. That's it. In fact - some polls are over-sampling at a larger margin than existed in 2008! That's saying something...

[bradyfan]

Yeah. Not sure where I said he was going to get 55%. I think it's possible that it can be a big win for Romney, I am not betting the house on it.
You may want to look up the following definitions:
Peers
Metanalysis

Where did I say I had a thing against HomeSchoolers? Mighty defensive

Then we agree on what Romney can do not what Romney will do. The 55% is what I was arguing about and it was mentioned a few post before mine. You probably should have read that before responding to me. I might have actually even quoted it.

Secondly, by peers do you mean Homeschooled kids who attend a Conservative Christian University?

This is your response about home schoolers. If this isn't against home schoolers, what is it? Why would you even use home schoolers to describe my peers?

[Humble_Opinion]

Also Brady - in a similar election cycle in 1980, some polls (Gallup, CBS News, etc.) showed Carter leading Reagan by 2 - 3% points merely a week before the election. Reagan went on to win by over 9% points... So don't tell me that the polls haven't gotten it wrong before and that there's no chance Romney wins big. He may not get 55% of the vote... but there is plenty of evidence to show that Romney has an edge in this race and that enthusiasm for Democrats is falling, while Republican enthusiasm is climbing. There are still plenty of news cycles plus 3 debates left, but I don't think that Obama can win a debate on foreign policy right now... Not with the cuts to the military looming, Iran, the Libya debacle, etc. If Wednesday night taught us anything, it's that Romney is not going to shy away from calling out the President's failures as McCain did in '08 (Thank God!).

[bradyfan]

Also Brady - in a similar election cycle in 1980, some polls (Gallup, CBS News, etc.) showed Carter leading Reagan by 2 - 3% points merely a week before the election. Reagan went on to win by over 9% points... So don't tell me that the polls haven't gotten it wrong before and that there's no chance Romney wins big. He may not get 55% of the vote... but there is plenty of evidence to show that Romney has an edge in this race and that enthusiasm for Democrats is falling, while Republican enthusiasm is climbing. There are still plenty of news cycles plus 3 debates left, but I don't think that Obama can win a debate on foreign policy right now... Not with the cuts to the military looming, Iran, the Libya debacle, etc. If Wednesday night taught us anything, it's that Romney is not going to shy away from calling out the President's failures as McCain did in '08 (Thank God!).

Let me start out by saying that, all together, I agree with you. We're arguing the same point: Romney won't get 55% but he has an edge. I'll agree with that, except I still think he has a fairly long road to go with the electoral votes. Also, keep in mind that the Reagan/Carter election is the exception, not the rule. After the first debate of the '04 election, Kerry closed in on Bush yet Bush won.

I definitely agree that Romney isn't what McCain was. He's not worried about being polite, he wants to make sure people know the facts. I like that a lot. He's also a much smoother speaker, similar to Clinton.

My only real argument here is that Romney won't win 55% and he has a tough road with the electoral votes. I do think he'll win but I don't think it's going to be a big win. We do have three debates left and although few expect Obama to do well on this next debate, few expected Romney to do what he did Wednesday. To say that Romney is now the favorite is a large over-reaction imo.

[Purple Haize]

Yeah. Not sure where I said he was going to get 55%. I think it's possible that it can be a big win for Romney, I am not betting the house on it.
You may want to look up the following definitions:
Peers
Metanalysis

Where did I say I had a thing against HomeSchoolers? Mighty defensive

Then we agree on what Romney can do not what Romney will do. The 55% is what I was arguing about and it was mentioned a few post before mine. You probably should have read that before responding to me. I might have actually even quoted it.

Secondly, by peers do you mean Homeschooled kids who attend a Conservative Christian University?

This is your response about home schoolers. If this isn't against home schoolers, what is it? Why would you even use home schoolers to describe my peers?

Lets see....because you are a homeschooled kid who goes to a conservative Christian college?

[Purple Haize]

I can admit when I'm wrong
Romney pulls ahead in VA FL and OH. I didn't think it would be that big a bounce