[stokesjokes]

Not only did PH change his tune on modeling, he tried to use the fact that the model @stokesjokes referenced was correct that it somehow means our response was good.

It has never been good.

Then according to the Model we should have been closer to 4 million dead. Unless the model was wrong

This is a misrepresentation of the model, and at this point, I have to believe you are doing it on purpose. 4 million dead if we did nothing. We did not do nothing.

It’s like if I told you that if you didn’t put out the fire in your kitchen then the house would burn down. You’re coming in after the fire department leaves and saying “See? You were wrong, my house is still standing.”

[Purple Haize]

what model? You talk in circles sometimes and I am not sure exactly what you're referring to.

The United States has the most COVID deaths worldwide, there is no way to spin that we somehow nailed it with our COVID response.

But at this point, like I said earlier, I just hope the things continue to go well with the vaccine because we are still arguing about the same things we did back in March/April.

Birx Fauci et al brought out the 1-200k model if we did everything perfect and 4 million if we did nothing
The latest model that has everyone agog is predicting 500k cumulative deaths by the end of Feb if we don’t force mask wearing (even then we will only save 130k ‘maybe’)
Two different models.

[Sly Fox]

Are we missing the real news? Did all non-COVID flu deaths suddenly cease. It's a miracle!

[stokesjokes]

I am interested in seeing the flu numbers this year. I think that would be a good indicator of the effectiveness of our measures. If masks/social/ distancing/avoiding crowds work, we would expect flu numbers to be down a good bit.

[stokesjokes]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

This chart has the flu data incorporated, but we really haven’t had flu season yet so I’m interested in seeing where it goes.

[ballcoach15]

The media and medical folks will probably "liberalize" flu numbers also. I heard a guy on Finebaum Show earlier in week say, he had a heart attack, went to ER. They said he had COVID, instead of heart attack.

[stokesjokes]

...you know it’s possible to have 2 things, right?

[TH Spangler]

To much to post everything here using my phone. But I finally had a conversations with my cousin, phD virologist. Did postgraduate research at UNC. Left my head spinning. Not good. Unfortunately, this seems like a new flu situation. Where there will be frequent mutations, the virus will persist, most everyone will get sick, too many will die, and the vaccine will need to be updated and taken often.

[cruzan_flame13]

Interesting interview:

[TH Spangler]

My uncle, in his 70's, a little over weight went to Duke hospital for a liver issue. He's also suffered a fib for several years. He picked up covin19 we think at Duke. He ended up at the covin19 hospital at Cone. He got double pneumonia. They put him on 100% oxygen, gave him plasma. For 48 hours it was 50/50. By God's grace he came home yesterday. Still weak, but recovering.

[Purple Haize]

In The Rona we have Nature finding another way to kill us

[TH Spangler]

After talking to my expert I'm leaning towards this being a flu like virus that was altered in a lab and escaped in China. It's possible the experiments started here and were stop due to the danger of that happening. I read the WHO may have play a roll in the research being moved to China.

This article was shared with me as an example of how China scientists routinely go into question able area not allowed here.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/12 ... years-jail

[JK37]

Hard article to read when the male protagonist’s first name is “He”. But, point taken.

[thepostman]

Without a doubt a lot of shady things go on in these Chinese labs. I wish we had put more pressure on China at the time instead of the praises that were raining down from Trump on China and their Covid response. So even though he puts all blame on China now, that wasn't always his tune.

SOURCE

The truth is there were warning signs and mechanisms in place that were either ignored or forgotten about and early detection teams were dismantled. We may never know what really happened in China because our early detection unit was completely dismantled by this administration even though the threat of a global pandemic was included in DoD reports that the president received.

SOURCE

SOURCE

I'm thankful the administration put so much focus on making it possible to develop a vaccine so quickly but that doesn't change the fact that this pandemic response was a failure waiting to happen due to decisions made by this administration without thinking of 2nd and 3rd order effects.

[TH Spangler]

From my expert. Once one like this is out there's not much anyone can do. Vaccines can only temporarily slow it because it mutates. This is very similar to present flues, just a new strain. Thanks to Tump we are in the best position possible. Demacrates are despicable for politicizing it. When Obama misjudged h1n1 the numbers were not politicized.

[thepostman]

To be fair the swine flu of 2009 was not nearly as deadly as COVID-19 so comparing the 2 is really difficult to do.

With that said, the Obama administration did make plenty of missteps with that. They used those lessons learned to create a pandemic playbook. A playbook that was completely tossed to the side by the current administration. Why? Because to Trump, anything with Obama's name associated with it was bad. Why? Because politics.

"Those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it"

Never has that been more true than with this pandemic.

[TH Spangler]

To be fair the swine flu of 2009 was not nearly as deadly as COVID-19 so comparing the 2 is really difficult to do.

With that said, the Obama administration did make plenty of missteps with that. They used those lessons learned to create a pandemic playbook. A playbook that was completely tossed to the side by the current administration. Why? Because to Trump, anything with Obama's name associated with it was bad. Why? Because politics.

"Those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it"

Never has that been more true than with this pandemic.

Just another flu outbreak only this time with genetic altering by researchers? Such research was going on under Obama, pre Trump. Just before he left office he had it halted at Ft Meade and UNC, do to risk exceeding reward concerns. Then the research shows up in Wuhan City. WHO keeps its escape from the lab there secret from the world. When it starts showing up in EU and US west coast, China quickly points a finger at the US military. Also funds from the US to WHO used in China to continue the research. We may never know the truth. Maybe Trump does a transparency dump before leaving office.

[TH Spangler]

To be fair the swine flu of 2009 and COVID-19 comparing is really difficult since Obama and CDC hid or failed to collect data or true death count.

FIFY

[thepostman]

This is why it impossible to have any kind of dialogue with you. You quickly venture down the trail of unfounded conspiracy theories.

[TH Spangler]

This is why it impossible to have any kind of dialogue with you. You quickly venture down the trail of unfounded conspiracy theories.

Interesting article

https://www.propublica.org/article/near ... onaviruses

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... coronaviru

[thepostman]

Obviously there are issues with these labs. I have said it over and over again.

My statement on your conspiracy theories is the completely unfounded belief that the Obama administration somehow suppressed the swine flu numbers.

[TH Spangler]

Obviously there are issues with these labs. I have said it over and over again.

My statement on your conspiracy theories is the completely unfounded belief that the Obama administration somehow suppressed the swine flu numbers.

He never treated it like a pandemic and never did any testing. MSM has since reported Obama admin knew about it but withheld information. My guess is they didn't want to create panic.

Here's some info from the UNC study I mentioned. Zhengli-Li Shi is the bat lady.

https://www.med.unc.edu/orfeome/files/2 ... rgence.pdf

[TH Spangler]

In 2008 Shi led a research team which studied binding of spike proteins of both natural and chimaeric SARS-like coronaviruses to ACE2 receptors in human, civet and horseshoe bat cells, to determine the mechanism by which SARS may have spilled over into humans.[10][11] In 2014, Shi Zhengli collaborated on additional gain-of-function experiments led by Ralph S. Baric of the University of North Carolina, which showed that two critical mutations that the MERS coronavirus possesses allow it to bind to the human ACE2 receptor,[12] and that SARS had the potential to re-emerge from coronaviruses circulating in bat populations in the wild.[13] In 2014, the US National Institutes of Health placed a moratorium on SARS, MERS, and influenza gain-of-function studies, due to concerns about the risks vs. benefits of such research,[14][15] lifting this moratorium in 2017 after the creation of a new regulatory framework.[16] Zhengli and her colleague Cui Jie led a team which sampled thousands of horseshoe bats throughout China. In 2017, they published their findings, indicating that all the genetic components of the SARS coronavirus existed in a bat population in a cave in Yunnan province.[1] while no single bat harbored the exact strain of virus which caused the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak, genetic analysis showed that different strains often mix, suggesting that the human version likely emerged from a combination of the strains present in the bat population.[1] Shi has been directing[when?] the Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), a biosafety level 4 (BSL-4) laboratory located in Jiangxia District, Wuhan.[citation needed]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shi_Zhengli

[TH Spangler]

They were splicing genes in the UNC lab and combining genetic elements from one species into another using viruses. It was ordered stopped during Obama term at UNC.

[Purple Haize]

To be fair the swine flu of 2009 was not nearly as deadly as COVID-19 so comparing the 2 is really difficult to do.

With that said, the Obama administration did make plenty of missteps with that. They used those lessons learned to create a pandemic playbook. A playbook that was completely tossed to the side by the current administration. Why? Because to Trump, anything with Obama's name associated with it was bad. Why? Because politics.

"Those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it"

Never has that been more true than with this pandemic.

Biden and Obama never put the resources out there to execute their Pandemic Playbook either. But did form some more redundant Blue Ribbon Panels.