[stokesjokes]

FYI: Data_Orbital Analytics has Trump on pace to win Arizona. Should be finalized Friday. If it holds, it all comes down to PA.

There would have to be a significant shift for this to be true. 450,000 of the 600,000 outstanding ballots are in Maricopa County, which, as of right now, is 52% Biden/46% Trump. Factor in that the uncounted ballots are majority mail-in, its hard to see Trump making up a 100,000 vote gap there. Unless there are bright red pockets of Maricopa that are among those outstanding ballots, we should be seeing Biden's advantage grow.

[paradox]

The advantage appears to be with the remaining votes. Based on demographics, he's projected to get at least 70%. He only needs 60%. This is what they're saying. We'll see if there are any new wrinkles. And keep in mind, AZ has a republican governor.

[thepostman]

But why should we keep counting those ballots? I don't get it. Anything after election day should be thrown out, right?

I'm obviously being facetious and am in the "count all the ballots" camp. However those results go is who wins. Simple as that.

[stokesjokes]

At least they're telling us when they're dropping the votes: one batch at 9pm eastern, one at 12:30am.

[stokesjokes]

Now Biden's claiming victory in Arizona

[paradox]

But why should we keep counting those ballots? I don't get it. Anything after election day should be thrown out, right?

I'm obviously being facetious and am in the "count all the ballots" camp. However those results go is who wins. Simple as that.

Yeah, that's the rhetoric. Sounds a lot like the beginning of the panic-demic and his crazy press conferences. Anyway, expect politicians to count votes and contest things that they think they can win.

[thepostman]

What does counting ballots have to do with pandemic rhetoric?

[stokesjokes]

Trump supporters chanting “stop the vote” outside a center where votes are being counted, how democratic.

[paradox]

What does counting ballots have to do with pandemic rhetoric?

Just saying Trump says crazy stuff. It's called having a New York mouth. He says whatever comes to his mind. That's probably why he connects so well with blue collar Dems

[TH Spangler]

But why should we keep counting those ballots? I don't get it. Anything after election day should be thrown out, right?

I'm obviously being facetious and am in the "count all the ballots" camp. However those results go is who wins. Simple as that.

I think they are saying to stop counting bogus ballots. Our election system is set up for cheating.

[ballcoach15]

Trump supporters chanting “stop the vote” outside a center where votes are being counted, how democratic.

Those votes still be being counted are probably fake votes. Could be the dead people votes the Democrats are just having delivered.

[TH Spangler]

Biden’s mental capacity and cognitive decline was the single biggest issue I had with voting for him.

Wow, this guy supports abortion, same sex marriage, against 2nd Amendment, supports the Green New Deal, refused to condemn violent rioting and embraces Socialism and your biggest issue is his mental capacity.

If it wasn't so heart breaking I would be looking forward to watching it unfold and saying I told you so.

[thepostman]

You guys live in a whole different world than me I guess. I'm not saying pockets of fraud doesn't happen but there are checks and balances and they work well.

Thank God we have a big football game to distract us from this mess this weekend.

[stokesjokes]

There has been zero evidence of any widespread fraud. It’s a transparent farce for Trump to contest the results.

[stokesjokes]

Trump sounds like Michael Scott declaring bankruptcy

[BigRed1]

There has been zero evidence of any widespread fraud. It’s a transparent farce for Trump to contest the results.

in Wisconsin there has been more votes than registered voters. Zero evidence of fraud?

[thepostman]

That was already addressed earlier in this thread. The number floating around social media isn't accurate AND you can register to vote day of at polling locations.

[thepostman]

SOURCE

[BigRed1]

SOURCELove pulling the chain of liberals and Never Trumpers.

[paradox]

Don't take this the wrong way, not going along with anyone's claims. Just saying that voter fraud exists and it's fairly common. Otherwise, there wouldn't be 2,700 people in federal prison for election fraud.

[thepostman]

SOURCELove pulling the chain of liberals and Never Trumpers.

nice save

[stokesjokes]

@paradox , Nate Silver just did a quick rundown on where we stand with the remaining states- he explained the prediction about Arizona pretty well:

“What’s left to count is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process — on Monday or Tuesday. There’s some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research seems to think around 450,000. If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Biden’s current 93,000-vote lead. They’re distributed fairly evenly throughout the state.

Wait — outstanding mail votes? Shouldn’t those be good for Biden, as they are in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and — this is the key part — the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be counted) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration breakdown of the votes that came in Monday and Tuesday was: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up.

But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. The state has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a big lead among independents in polls. And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs.“

[Purple Haize]

A couple of items since I’ve been buried with an interesting turn at work:
1. Yes. Both sides theoretically have observes in the Count Room watching ballots get counted. But that’s not 100% where the troubles can happen. The first issue is WHERE do the votes come from? Some boxes have chain of custody forms some do not depending on State. You also have stories of people taking ballots home in their car overnight, ballot boxes being found in closets etc. So yeah, there are Observers but there only Observing what is in front of them

2. There is voter fraud. Every election there are stories of people getting caught for doing it. Normally it’s not very consequential but we are talking razor thin margins. So the fraud doesn’t need to be widespread this time to be a factor

3. Mail in ballots. Interesting how the NYT was adamantly against it in 2012 and now is totally ok with it. This example in anecdotal, but one of my colleagues in Miami whose family immigrated from Cuba received 30 ballots. She took a picture and put it on her FB. They were in her name, names of the people who lived there before them, names of some of her relatives and some others. Unless you double check every single unsolicited ballot, how can you prove they were real/fake?

4. Trump won’t go quietly and that’s ok. We could be looking at a 270-268 split. If you’d put that much time energy and effort into something would you give up easily? Amazing to thing 1 vote in Maine and Nebraska could have been the difference

5. I’m kinda tired of @thepostman doubting me. What have I been saying? Trump will “win” on election night and “lose” after. Why do you continue to doubt me

6. Despite losing the WH the Republicans had an OK night. At the beginning of the night they were expected to lose up to 15 seats in the House. They GAINED 5 as of this writing The Senate was in serious jeopardy yet I think they picked up a seat. Although about $4.2 trillion will now be spent in GA for those 2 seats.

[stokesjokes]

An interesting perspective I heard today is that the election being so close will keep both parties from doing any real “soul searching.” Trumpism will remain alive and well for the Republicans and the Democrats will continue to drift left.

[paradox]

@paradox , Nate Silver just did a quick rundown on where we stand with the remaining states- he explained the prediction about Arizona pretty well:

“What’s left to count is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process — on Monday or Tuesday. There’s some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research seems to think around 450,000. If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Biden’s current 93,000-vote lead. They’re distributed fairly evenly throughout the state.

Wait — outstanding mail votes? Shouldn’t those be good for Biden, as they are in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and — this is the key part — the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be counted) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration breakdown of the votes that came in Monday and Tuesday was: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up.

But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. The state has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a big lead among independents in polls. And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs.“

It should be interesting as this all plays out. Republicans are saying that they need 57% but they're pulling much higher, even in Maricopa, currently at 62%. Are they blowing smoke? Only time will tell.

He seems to be prevailing in PA, unless we get a Landslide Lyndon scenario. It may all come down to AZ. Either way, the guy on the down side is going to litigate.