- March 5th, 2012, 7:56 pm
#383645
For these purposes, “lean” indicates a candidate that I think will win by a .1 to 10% margin. “solid” indicates I think a candidate will win by a 10 to 20% margin, “strong” means that the candidate will win by 20% or more.
Alaska: Lean Romney
Georgia: Solid Gingrich
Idaho: Solid Romney
Massachusetts: Strong Romney
North Dakota: Lean Santorum
Ohio: Lean Santorum (toss-up)
Oklahoma: Solid Santorum
Tennessee: Lean Santorum (toss-up)
Vermont: Solid Romney
Virginia: Strong Romney
Alaska: Romney wins because Paul and Gingrich will split high amounts of votes.
Georgia: Gingrich wins simply because it is his home state.
Idaho: A Paul stronghold, but the small Mormon vote probably pushes Romney ahead.
Massachusetts: Romney wins simply because it is his home state.
North Dakota: Santorum wins on mid-west flyover country conservative values.
Ohio: This one is as close as it can be, but I’d put my money on Santorum, 55:45 odds, simply because he has more passionate supporters. Romney is very close to winning.
Oklahoma: Southern conservative values, they flock to Santorum.
Tennessee: Another toss up, but I’d still bet on Santorum here. Romney is close here as well.
Vermont: Moderate/Liberal Republicans rally around Mitt.
Virginia: Well, you already know who wins.
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