- December 26th, 2006, 7:24 pm
#49899
All right, whoever this is needs to fess up:
Once again, an armchair picker beat the proshttp://www.usatoday.com/money/media/200 ... usat_x.htm
Updated 12/26/2006 1:14 AM ET
By David Lieberman, USA TODAY
Johnny Depp as Capt. Jack Sparrow in a scene from Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest.
Talk about the wisdom of crowds. One of the 1,750 readers who entered the 10th Annual USA TODAY Media and Entertainment Prognostication Contest won — handing our panel of six Wall Street media wizards their sixth-consecutive defeat.
The crown goes to Chris Mehler, 24, a bank financial service representative from Lynchburg, Va., who got 12 correct answers out of 15 questions and beat four others on the tiebreaker. (One contestant with 13 correct answers couldn't be reached.)
Mehler, who graduated from Liberty University with a degree in history, says he follows media, entertainment and sports in depth but doesn't buy stocks.
For next year, he says, broadband video site YouTube "is going to keep on flourishing." But television programmers can relax: TV and the Internet "can coexist."
Among the analysts, Research Associates' Marla Backer came out on top with nine correct answers.
Although her team lost, they can take comfort in this: The analysts averaged 6.50 correct answers, while the average for readers was 6.04.
Here's the 2006 scorecard:
1. Which of these sequels will have the biggest three-day opening weekend box office?
a) Big Momma's House 2; b) Ice Age 2; c) Mission: Impossible III; d) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest; e) The Santa Clause 3; f) Superman Returns; g) X-Men 3.
Answer: D. Ticket buyers spent $135.6 million to see the first weekend of Johnny Depp's return as Keith Richards — I mean, Capt. Jack Sparrow. That handily beat runner-up X-Men 3, with $102.8 million, and did nearly twice as well as Ice Age 2, with $68 million.
2. Album sales fell about 10% in 2005, including digital downloads (10 songs equal one album). In 2006, combined album sales will:
a) Fall another 10% or more; b) Fall less than 10%; c) Be flat; d) Rise less than 10%; e) Rise 10% or more.
Answer: B. The 66.6% rise in sales of digital tracks didn't quite compensate for the 4.6% drop in CDs and other physical album formats. All told, album sales fell 0.7% — not bad compared with 2005.
3. Now that Paramount has bought DreamWorks, what will happen to independent studio Lionsgate?
a) CBS will buy it; b) NBC Universal will buy it; c) Someone else will buy it; d) It will stay independent.
Answer: D. The studio responsible for Saw III, Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion and Hostel continues to chart its own idiosyncratic course.
4. Which of the following will take place by Dec. 1?
a) Warner Music and EMI agree to combine; b) General Electric announces it will spin off NBC Universal; c) MTV and Microsoft's music service, Urge, overtakes iTunes; d) a high-definition DVD format war is averted when HD DVD backers concede to Blu-ray; e) NBC introduces The Apprentice: Bernie Ebbers; f) More than one; g) None.
Answer: G. Warner and EMI wanted to buy each other, but neither liked the other's terms.
5. The No. 1 nightly newscaster(s) by December will be:
a) Katie Couric at CBS; b) Someone else at CBS; c) Elizabeth Vargas and Bob Woodruff at ABC; d) Brian Williams at NBC; e) Jim Cramer at CNBC.
Answer: D. Williams leads a close race. Charlie Gibson got the anchor seat at ABC after a roadside bomb in Iraq injured Woodruff. Meanwhile, Couric's charm has yet to work its magic on news viewers.
6. Verizon and AT&T are getting into the TV business. How many video service customers will they collectively serve at the end of the third quarter?
a) Fewer than 100,000; b) At least 100,000 but fewer than 500,000; c) At least 500,000 but fewer than 750,000; d) At least 750,000 but fewer than 1 million; e) 1 million or more.
Answer: B. Phone companies still have a long way to go to seriously threaten cable. Verizon says it has 118,000 customers, and AT&T — off to a later start — only has a few thousand.
7. Which animated film will have the biggest three-day opening weekend?
a) Cars (Pixar); b) Curious George (Universal); c) Ice Age 2 (Fox); d) Over the Hedge (DreamWorks); e) The Wild (Disney).
Answer: C. Ice Age 2 won with a $68 million first weekend vs. Cars' $60.1 million, Over the Hedge's $38.5 million, Curious George's $14.7 million and The Wild's $9.7 million. But Cars picked up the pace to become the No. 8 all-time top-grossing animated film — with Ice at No. 10.
8. Which of these companies by Dec. 1 will agree to a sale or file for bankruptcy protection?
a) Blockbuster; b) Charter Communications; c) Gemstar-TV Guide; d) TiVo; e) More than one; f) None.
Answer: F. All are alive and kicking.
9. Which of these companies will go private?
a) Cablevision; b) EchoStar; c) Knight Ridder; d) Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia; e) World Wrestling Entertainment; f) More than one; g) None.
Answer: A. Only 4% got this one right. By going private, Cablevision's Dolan family won't have to brawl with Wall Street. Now can it do something about the New York Knicks?
10. Financier Carl Icahn wants to shake up Time Warner. What changes will it make by Dec. 1?
a) Sell a controlling stake in Time Warner Cable; b) Split into two companies; c) Split into four companies; d) Icahn will control at least one board seat; e) Icahn will back down after HBO gives him a recurring role on Curb Your Enthusiasm; f) More than one; g) None.
Answer B. After acquiring Adelphia Communications, the media giant launched its effort to turn Time Warner Cable into a publicly traded company. Although Time Warner will retain the vast majority of its shares, the entities will be distinct with separate boards.
11. Which of these new stocks featuring traditional media will appreciate most from Jan. 2 (or when issued) through Dec. 1?
a) CBS; b) Liberty Interactive (including QVC); c) Live Nation (formerly Clear Channel Entertainment); d) Time Warner Cable; e) Viacom.
Answer C. It's no wonder that Live Nation was up 71%. Concert ticket sales in North America rose 35% this year, to $2.8 billion, according to Billboard — and Live Nation accounted for nearly $2.3 billion of the total with performers, including The Rolling Stones, Barbra Streisand and Billy Joel.
12. Sirius Satellite Radio ended 2005 with 3 million subscribers — 50% of XM's 6 million. Now that Howard Stern's at Sirius, how big will it be relative to XM at the end of the third quarter?
a) 50% or less; b) More than 50% but less than 65%; c) At least 65% but less than 80%; d) At least 80% but less than 100%; e) 100% or more.
Answer: C. Something helped Sirius. It had 5.1 million subscribers at the end of September, equal to 71% of XM's 7.2 million.
13. Which major studio will be the first to release a DVD of a film on the same day it opens in theaters?
a) Disney; b) Fox; c) Paramount; d) Sony; e) Universal; f) Warner Bros.; g) None.
Answer: G. One day, who knows?
14. What will happen to Blockbuster's online rental business by Dec. 1?
a) No change, it's still running; b) Netflix will buy it; c) Someone else will buy it; d) It'll be closed; e) Something else.
Answer: A. Blockbuster hung in with 1.5 million online subscribers as of Sept. 30 and expectations of ending the year with 2 million.
15. What changes will follow Federal Communications Commission Chairman Kevin Martin's efforts against indecency?
a) Sirius and XM Satellite Radio introduce a "family tier"; b) FX begins to carry Pat Robertson's The 700 Club; c) Shares of Pax TV parent Paxson Communications rocket to $2; d) characters in HBO's Deadwood replace profanity with words such as "tarnation!" and "dagnabbit!"; e) More than one; f) None.
Answer: F. In case you're wondering, family-friendly TV station and network owner Paxson changed its name to Ion — and its share price fell to 61 cents as of Dec. 1 from 92 cents at the beginning of the year.
Tiebreaker (counts only in case of a tie for winner): How much will Casino Royale, starring Daniel Craig as the next James Bond, take in at domestic box offices on its opening weekend? (Previous Bond Pierce Brosnan's Die Another Day opened with $47 million in 2002.)
Answer: $40.8 million. After five weeks, the new 007 is tracking about the same as the old — but with higher sales overseas.
Posted 12/25/2006 8:43 PM ET
- By olldflame