This is the definitive place to discuss everything that makes life on & off campus so unique in Central Virginia.

Moderators: jcmanson, Sly Fox, BuryYourDuke

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By jbock13
Registration Days Posts
#502557
It's going to snow. A lot.

Postman, you are going to get creamed in DC. I'm concerned that Lynchburg may mix with some sleet but 8-13 seems to be a good bet this far out.
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By adam42381
Registration Days Posts
#502562
jbock13 wrote:It's going to snow. A lot.

Postman, you are going to get creamed in DC. I'm concerned that Lynchburg may mix with some sleet but 8-13 seems to be a good bet this far out.
What are you seeing for the Triad area of NC?
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By VAGolf
Registration Days Posts
#502564
Most forecasts I've seen have Roanoke getting anywhere from 17-25 inches. And then there's that one guy, running wxrisk on Facebook, saying we could get up to 40 inches. Is he consistently accurate though? I followed him two years ago when he predicted a large snow storm, while everyone else was saying it would pass over. Since then, it just seems like he takes the "worst case" model and then blasts it on social media.
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By jbock13
Registration Days Posts
#502565
adam42381 wrote:
jbock13 wrote:It's going to snow. A lot.

Postman, you are going to get creamed in DC. I'm concerned that Lynchburg may mix with some sleet but 8-13 seems to be a good bet this far out.
What are you seeing for the Triad area of NC?
That's going to be hard because they will see ice, snow, sleet, and rain. But first guess would be 3-7 inches, but that could go either way. Much higher bust potential than in VA.
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By jbock13
Registration Days Posts
#502566
VAGolf wrote:Most forecasts I've seen have Roanoke getting anywhere from 17-25 inches. And then there's that one guy, running wxrisk on Facebook, saying we could get up to 40 inches. Is he consistently accurate though? I followed him two years ago when he predicted a large snow storm, while everyone else was saying it would pass over. Since then, it just seems like he takes the "worst case" model and then blasts it on social media.
I used to like him but he's not as accurate as he used to be. But basically he loves the European model and hugs it like crazy. The European model is the best but I need a few more runs to be sure we're really talking about 30+ inches lol

I would argue that DT (wxrisk) is a great long term forecaster though. But short term, you can do better.
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#502575
What is Bristol and SW VA looking like? I have to go out there Thursday and Friday
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By thepostman
Registration Days Posts
#502577
Wxrisk isn't saying 40 inches. He just is sharing model info right now. He hasn't put out his first guess yet.

I have a year and a,half left here so a historical snowstorm would be nice. Then it get warm back up. This town will shut down for a week if this happens. But I'm still not sure if it will.
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By jbock13
Registration Days Posts
#502578
Purple Haize wrote:What is Bristol and SW VA looking like? I have to go out there Thursday and Friday
3-6 at the most at this point. Rain will work in as the low transfers. "The wedge" as we call it always puts Bristol in the warm sector.
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By Purple Haize
Registration Days Posts
#502579
jbock13 wrote:
Purple Haize wrote:What is Bristol and SW VA looking like? I have to go out there Thursday and Friday
3-6 at the most at this point. Rain will work in as the low transfers. "The wedge" as we call it always puts Bristol in the warm sector.
Crap. Guess I have to go
User avatar
By alabama24
Registration Days Posts
#502582
jbock13 wrote:It's going to snow. A lot.
jbock is back with predictions! That means this will be a bust! lol (just messin with ya). :lol:
By Humble_Opinion
Registration Days Posts
#502587
thepostman wrote:Wxrisk isn't saying 40 inches. He just is sharing model info right now. He hasn't put out his first guess yet.

I have a year and a,half left here so a historical snowstorm would be nice. Then it get warm back up. This town will shut down for a week if this happens. But I'm still not sure if it will.
Thanks Postie for setting the record straight. The problem is everyone sees the ECMWF Accumulated Precipitation map on his page and proceeds to share it all over the world without ever reading his commentary that explicitly states it to not be an official forecast. He's already said the 40" range is highly unlikely. The EURO ensembles have consistently shown colder air reaching further south as the High Pressure centers over PA/NY. The counterclockwise flow pushes cold air southward right into the heart of VA. In my opinion the GFS doesn't see this very well. Each run of the ECMWF continues to show this high getting stronger.
By Humble_Opinion
Registration Days Posts
#502588
adam42381 wrote:
jbock13 wrote:It's going to snow. A lot.

Postman, you are going to get creamed in DC. I'm concerned that Lynchburg may mix with some sleet but 8-13 seems to be a good bet this far out.
What are you seeing for the Triad area of NC?
Adam, from what I've seen it looks like an ice storm set-up might be starting. If this happens, it could be pretty dangerous in your neck of the woods with the amount of precip + slower movement of the storm.
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By jbock13
Registration Days Posts
#502601
Wow. Euro went south. If that's true Lynchburg stays snow. And a lot of it.
User avatar
By adam42381
Registration Days Posts
#502610
Humble_Opinion wrote:
adam42381 wrote:
jbock13 wrote:It's going to snow. A lot.

Postman, you are going to get creamed in DC. I'm concerned that Lynchburg may mix with some sleet but 8-13 seems to be a good bet this far out.
What are you seeing for the Triad area of NC?
Adam, from what I've seen it looks like an ice storm set-up might be starting. If this happens, it could be pretty dangerous in your neck of the woods with the amount of precip + slower movement of the storm.
According to my mom, the Weather Channel was saying 11-18 inches for us. I picked the wrong time to leave Florida.
By Humble_Opinion
Registration Days Posts
#502612
adam42381 wrote:According to my mom, the Weather Channel was saying 11-18 inches for us. I picked the wrong time to leave Florida.
For some reason I thought you were in RDU... now I realize you're near Greensboro. Big snows are possible for you. Forget what I said previously about the ice storm... at least based on the latest data.
User avatar
By adam42381
Registration Days Posts
#502659
According to the local news, we're only going to get 2-6 inches. Not sure who I should trust.
By rogers3
Registration Days Posts
#502663
adam42381 wrote:According to the local news, we're only going to get 2-6 inches. Not sure who I should trust.
Not the local news!
User avatar
By justagirl
Registration Days Posts
#502665
rogers3 wrote:
adam42381 wrote:According to the local news, we're only going to get 2-6 inches. Not sure who I should trust.
Not the local news!

HAHAHAHA, exactly. Anyone BUT the local news.
By Humble_Opinion
Registration Days Posts
#502669
adam42381 wrote:According to the local news, we're only going to get 2-6 inches. Not sure who I should trust.
They're hesitant because the National Weather Service has been understating the storm's performance in their official forecasts up to this point. The forecast is a complex one in nature. Many long-term forecasters search the "weather history" of previous events to look for atmospheric conditions/patterns that are very similar to the current conditions in the country in the lead-up to potential big events like this. They call the matches "analogs." Suffice it to say, there aren't many analogs for an event this type. The two I've seen pointed out were 1940 Jan 22-23 and also a multiple storm event in 1966.

That being said, I'm not sure what the NWS is using to form the basis of their forecasts at the moment. The models I've seen have the Triad region receiving 5 - 10+". There's not a lot of room for error here though... a small shift either way can cause dramatic changes in snow amounts.
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By alabama24
Registration Days Posts
#502670
Let's get back to Lynchburg, can we? lol

Walmart keeps selling out of bread. They were stocking it when I got there and nearly gone when I left.
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By flameshaw
Registration Days Posts
#502677
You all have heard that WalMart is closing 250+ stores? It is going to put 14 cashiers out of work. :shock:
User avatar
By BJWilliams
Registration Days Posts
#502686
flameshaw wrote:You all have heard that WalMart is closing 250+ stores? It is going to put 14 cashiers out of work. :shock:
None in Virginia remember?
User avatar
By thepostman
Registration Days Posts
#502687
So I went to the grocery store after work thinking I would beat all the crazies,going there tomorrow. Boy was I wrong. Absolutely insane.

Moral of the story. I hate DC.
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